1593 Market Potential

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There are forty-five screening venues, and the cumulative box office of the four-week screening exceeded 10 million.

"Drunken Country Ballads" has created a miracle, a miracle belonging to an independent film. In just four weeks, it is still in the screening period, but it has completely rewritten the slump and silence of independent art films in the box office market.

Everyone knows that the box office of art films will not be comparable to that of commercial films. The capacity has not been able to make an accurate judgment.

It can be understood in this way that with the development and maturity of the commercial film industry chain, in the past three decades, movies have gradually become a norm in the North American market, or even a part of life. Watching movies has become habitual. It also means that the audience's aesthetic taste is improving.

For commercial popcorn, those simple and conventional routines can no longer meet the needs of the audience, they need more fresh or exciting things to open their eyes; the same is true for works of art, audiences who are willing to watch and appreciate these works Crowds are growing and so is the level of appreciation.

The most intuitive portrayal is the awards season economy that revolves around the Oscars. Since December, the number of viewers willing to go to the cinema for awards season works has been increasing, and major hotels and bars have even launched "Oscar packages". The audience can participate in the awards season immersively; of course, the box office data of the award-winning works of the little golden man can generally increase by about 30%, or even double directly, which is also a more direct data.

Thanks to the existence and dissemination of the Internet, more and more obscure works of art are getting a lot of love. Even if the box office of the theater cannot be recovered, the video rental market and the income of online streaming media on demand are rising.

In fact, such changes always exist objectively, but Hollywood industry insiders have always turned a blind eye. Or to put it more accurately, the growth momentum is far from the level they expected.

Since the "Pulp Fiction" in 1994, the market performance of independent art films has always occupied a place, but the moment when it really entered the public's attention was in 2006. The production cost of "Little Sunshine" with a production cost of only 8 million chose the summer program. Spotlight - Fox Searchlight, who was in charge of the release at the time, did not expect the follow-up development curve of this work at all, which shocked the entire North America.

After the film was released, it was well received, and it counterattacked all the way. From the last week of July to March of the following year, the sturdy market response ability made the veteran Fox Searchlight stunned. In the end, this work won 5,000 in North America. 9 million at the box office, and won the Best Supporting Actor and Best Original Screenplay at the Oscars that year, as well as two nominations for Best Picture and Best Supporting Actress. The biggest dark horse.

Then in 2007, it was Fox Searchlight again. They released an independent novel with a production cost of 7.5 million US dollars. They chose to release in early December. They did not have high hopes because of the theme and the The themes are too "light" and not enough weight to gain a firm foothold in the awards season, but I didn't expect that this work ushered in an explosion again.

First swept the box office of 143 million in North America, and then won four nominations for Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actress and Best Original Screenplay at the Oscars that year, and finally won the best original screenplay. .

This work is "Juno".

You know, in 2006 and 2007, there were still only five Oscar nominations for best picture, and everyone was fighting for the five seats. Even Weinstein Films had to do everything possible to win a place. , but did not expect Fox Searchlight to easily enter the game for two consecutive years.

What's more, the two works "Little Sunshine" and "Juno" were also popular in the box office market at the same time, and their excellent performance made other works in the same year jealous.

"Slumdog Millionaire" in 2008, "District 9" and "In the Clouds" in 2009, "Black Swan" and "City Thief" in 2010, "Help" in 2011...

Since then, works like this have emerged almost every year. With excellent word-of-mouth, excellent box office and excellent awards season prospects, independent films are expanding their influence year by year, proving that works of art can also be Earn your place in the box office market.

But Hollywood has never paid attention - at least not enough.

reason?

The success rate of art works in the box office market is too low, the publicity is too difficult, and the ratio of pay to return is unsatisfactory; the growth rate of the mass base of art works is too slow, far from being comparable to the expansion speed of commercial films, especially When the commercial series of films led by Marvel are breaking out on the market, the improvement of works of art is even more eclipsed.

In 2018, the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences took the initiative to propose that they hope to set up a Best Popular Film Award to honor commercial films with outstanding artistic achievements. Get closer to the Teen Choice Awards."

Objectively speaking, films such as "Avatar", "Titanic", and "The Dark Knight" that have made great commercial achievements have still received unanimous praise and won their own place above the Oscars. This also means that the academy always pays attention to commercial films.

However, the addition of a "Best Pop Movie Award" is superfluous. It is obvious that it hopes to create a popular topic and attract the attention of young people. The mockery of the "Teen Choice Award" is also appropriate.

Of course, the background in which the college chose to make such a decision also needs to be understood:

With the interest of online streaming media, the number of viewers on TV stations has dropped rapidly, and even the ratings of the No. 1 sport in North America, rugby, have inevitably declined. Among the top 50 overall ratings in North America, rugby Events can occupy more than thirty-five or even forty seats - let alone an awards ceremony? The Grammys, the Emmys, the Oscars, the Golden Globes, all major awards shows saw their ratings plummet across the board.

In order to increase the ratings and influence of the Oscars, the Academy chose to set up the "Best Popular Film Award".

But the most ironic thing is that, shortly after the Academy announced its decision, the Teen Choice Awards saw an avalanche of ratings and viewership, setting an all-time low, even for "Star Wars," "Avengers 3," "Jurassic Park 2," etc. The main creators of a series of super commercial blockbusters were all present, but there was still no way to save the collapse of the ratings.

The first time someone stood up and ridiculed, "Even the original Teen Choice Awards has collapsed, so what should we do with the Oscars after copying and pasting?"

Soon after, the Academy officially announced that due to various considerations, the plan to establish a "Best Popular Film Award" was temporarily shelved.

In other words, even in 2018, the Academy is still struggling with the influence and return of the Oscars, let alone 2013?

It's not that the academy doesn't pay attention to the box office of independent art films, but because the return rate of independent art films is really too low. On average, one "Juno" or one "help" appears every year, which is a drop in the bucket, and it really cannot attract them to spend more. More energy. In the final analysis, even Oscar in the name of art has to put interests first.

Not long ago, "Gravity" broke the North American market's fixed prejudice for autumn.

Now, "Drunken Country Ballads" has broken the inertial cognition of awards season works in the North American market.

So far, the box office data of "Drunk Town Ballad" is only a mere 10 million US dollars. It seems that there is no need to make such a fuss, but this work is different from "Juno" and "Little Sunshine".

"Little Sunshine" was screened at $53,000 in a single theater in the first week, which is not a surprise. In the fourth week, it was expanded to 700 theaters, and the cumulative box office in the first three weeks was $5.6 million.

The box office of "Juno" was 59,000 US dollars in the first week of the movie, and it did not create a miracle. In the third week, the expanded theater chain reached 300, and in the fourth week, it directly entered the large-scale screening stage of 1,000 theaters. , the cumulative box office for the first three weeks was $6.4 million.

In other words, the box office curves of "Little Sunshine" and "Juno" are similar, relying on the accumulation of word-of-mouth in the early stage, and intensive publicity in the later stage, which then detonated the box office. ”, the box office decline for 14 consecutive weeks has been controlled within 30%, and there has also been a strong counterattack on Christmas and New Year’s Day, bringing the momentum of the awards season craze to the fullest.

To put it simply, this is the expected curve for all awards season art films, and the major distribution companies are also arranged according to such expectations. This is an old saying, nothing new. The rise of "Little Sunshine" and "Juno" is more from the works themselves, that is to say, the rules have been figured out, and all other works are copying such curves. But it is difficult to create brilliance again, so it is impossible to make waves again.

The current "Drunk Town Folk Ballad" has stepped out of a different box office curve: the number of theaters for the first four weeks has always been controlled below 50, but it has stepped out of an unimaginable curve, and the cumulative box office in the four weeks has exceeded 10 million. , and the box office data of a single hall has broken historical records again and again, such a result has never appeared in the entire North American market.

Just like "gravity" for the autumn gear, this is a feat that breaks the law and the pattern. So, is this a coincidence or a necessity? If it is inevitable, can it change the current situation of art films in the box office market? How much is its research value and reference value?

This is the real history!

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