The Greatest Showman

1529 600 Million Threshold

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4th week of October, North American weekend box office charts, No. 1, "Gravity"; No. 2, "Fool 4"; No. 3, "Captain Phillips"; No. 4, "Black Gold"; No. 5, " Heavenly Food 2". Among them, only the top three weekend box office broke the threshold of 10 million.

It can be seen that the overall competition level of the autumn file is clear at a glance, but all the attention of the entire market is increasingly focused on the only work that has created a miracle against the sky.

Four weeks after its release, the cumulative box office of "Gravity" officially exceeded 450 million, making it the 19th film in North American film history with a box office exceeding 400 million.

At the same time, "Gravity" also set a series of records, tying the same period results of "Avatar", and it took 28 days to achieve the cumulative box office breakthrough of 450 million, which was behind "Vengeance" The seventeen days of "The League of Legends" and the twenty-seven days of "The Dark Knight", the two works are temporarily tied for third place in film history.

So far, from the first week to the fourth week of October, "Gravity" broke out with incredible box-office dominance, almost swept away thousands of troops and completed the sturdy four consecutive championships, truly dominating With the North American film market in the fall this year, there is no work that can shake the strong dominance.

But more important than the championship is that people see for the first time that the fall season also has endless box office potential, just like the holiday season after the emergence of "Twilight", the only problem now is: regularity what exactly is it? How should major film companies dig? Can "Gravity" Become a Template?

In just four weeks of release, "Gravity" has already ranked eighth in the North American box office, temporarily behind "Avatar", "Titanic", "Avengers", "Edge of Tomorrow", "Darkness" Knight", "Star Wars Episode 1: The Phantom Menace" and "Star Wars" seven works.

Among these works currently ranked before "Gravity", the top three North American box office exceeded 600 million, and the top five North American box office exceeded 500 million.

Now, there is basically no suspense that "Gravity" has exceeded 500 million. All experts have turned their attention to 600 million, but the problem is that 600 million is definitely not so easy to touch-

Both "Avatar" and "Titanic" have box-office curves that are too special and unrealistic. The former's box-office decline for 11 consecutive weeks is below 30%, and most of the time it's below 2%. Ten; the latter won the box office championship for 15 consecutive weeks, and all weekend box office drops were less than 20%. Such performance is almost irreproducible, and there is really not much reference value.

Then, the only reference object is "The Avengers".

The "Avengers" released in the summer of 2012, the box office has reached 523 million in the same period of four weeks, which is 73 million US dollars higher than "Gravity". This is a difficult to shorten. The gap also means that if "Gravity" wants to become the fourth North American film with a box office of 600 million, the next box office decline needs to be even better or even against the sky.

Even worse than the current performance!

Otherwise, why does everyone say that 600 million box office is the highest threshold that is impossible to achieve? Otherwise, why have only three works in the whole history reached such heights?

Now "Gravity" will face even more arduous challenges - the bad news is that the fall season is over and Halloween is coming, and a large number of competitive commercial films are coming; the good news is that the holiday season has begun, Home audiences have flocked, and the movie market has been buzzing again.

Of course, the premise is that the audience's enthusiasm for watching movies has not been overdrawn in advance due to the outbreak of "gravity", and they are still willing to enter the cinema.

In the first week of November, the market began to pick up immediately. A full five films had their official premieres, and three of them had more than 3,000 theaters, namely "Ender's Game" and "Final". Las Vegas" and "Turkey".

"Turkey" is a well-known independent film production company Relative Media Theory. They signed a joint cooperation agreement with Universal Pictures and Sony Pictures, which is somewhat similar to the relationship between Legendary Pictures and Warner Bros. The relative media company also Like Thomas Tour, get money from Wall Street and then pick the right playbook project to invest in.

Relativistic media theory is famous all over Hollywood, because their boss Ryan Kavanaugh (ryan-kavanaugh) is a math genius, he firmly believes that anything can be found in mathematics to find a logical thinking framework, and predict When things go wrong, even artistic creation is no exception.

In 2012, there was a movie called "Moneyball", based on a true story, using big data to select baseball players, and implement tactical strategies, and achieved success in the league; Ryan Kavanaugh's investment method is Called "Moneyball", investing purely mathematically is actually the later "big data", which is Netflix's (comfilx) method of making movies.

By the way, at that time, the "Moneyball" movie project tried to seek investment in relative media theory, but according to the analysis of the data model, Kavanaugh believed that sports movies would not make money, so he gave up "Moneyball" - later this film. The film was a hit and miss, and even earned an Oscar nomination.

However, Kavanaugh still uses his own data model to realize many successful investment cases, such as "Brunette 4", "Bridesmaid", "Social Network", "Dragon Tiger Youth Team", "Les Miserables"

"Wait a minute, in 2011, Relative Media Theory was the ninth highest-grossing film company in North America by annual revenue.

In fact, this "Moneyball" data model framework is derived from the investment model of Wall Street, which was later proved to be unsuitable for film creation. Declared bankruptcy in 2015.

This "Turkey Mobilization" is the investment project that Kavanaugh chose after calculating with big data. It invested 55 million and invited Owen Wilson, Woody Harrelson, Amy Poehler. ) and other big-name actors came to dub, and even the schedule was calculated based on the data model.

It can't be said to be a lot of attention, but the box office trend of "Turkey" has indeed attracted a lot of attention.

"The Last Las Vegas" is a comedy film produced by the cbs group's film studio. Morgan Freeman, Robert De Niro, Michael Douglas and many other veteran actors joined, and the director It is Jon-turteltaub, who has produced works such as "National Treasure", "Love at Second Sight" and "The Sorcerer's Apprentice". The investment cost is 28 million.

Who knows, maybe a comedy movie will be able to find a way to break through the holiday season and break through at the box office? All the leading actors are old actors who are very popular with the audience, and they can indeed occupy a lot of advantages during the holidays.

In addition, "Ender's Game" is the most important work.

Along with "Harry Potter", "Twilight", "The Hunger Games" and other teenage novel adaptation movies, countless classic works have also entered the attention of major film companies one after another. It is one of the experts, they unearthed the classic work "Ender's Game" in 1985.

This novel was created by the contemporary American science fiction writer Orson-Scott-card, who is the only person in American history to win the Hugo Award and the Nebula Award for the best two years in a row. writer of feature films, and it was "Ender's Game" and its sequel, "Speaker of the Dead" that made this feat possible for him.

In fact, after the publication of "Ender's Game", major film companies have been trying to adapt the script, and the original author Orson has repeatedly revised the script, but it was not until the intervention of Summit Entertainment that officially opened the film to the big screen. journey. In the preparatory stage, the movie was highly anticipated because of the wide readership of the original novel in North America. Many professional media in the industry even believed that this work had the ability to replicate the miracle of "Harry Potter".

It is precisely because of this confidence that Summit Entertainment spared no expense, costing a full 110 million, and invited South African director Gabin-hood to helm the director. He won the Oscar for Best Foreign Language Film, and then filmed "Wolverine" in 2009, which has gained a lot of recognition in the industry.

The cast is also looking forward to it. Asa-butterfield (asa-butterfield) joins forces with Hailee-Steinfeld and Abigail Breslin to play the leading role——

Hailey was a blockbuster with "Thunderbolt", Abigail succeeded in breaking out with "Little Sunshine", and Asa had a wonderful performance in "The Boy in the Striped Pajamas" in 2008, and then starred in the lead role. "Hugo" in 2011.

In terms of old dramas, Harrison Ford, Ben Kingsley, and Viola Davis joined together for the movie.

It is no exaggeration to say that this work has attracted much attention even if it is placed in the summer season, but Pinnacle Entertainment still chose the holiday file that it is most familiar with-the "Twilight" of Pinnacle Entertainment started here. Now they still hope that "Ender's Game" can create "Harry Potter" and "Hunger Games"-style miracles.

One of the three works was chosen arbitrarily. From the analysis of the strength on paper, it seems that they all have the ability to leverage the box office during the holiday season. The competition in the Halloween season has suddenly risen sharply, which also means that "Geocentric" The real challenge of gravity" has finally arrived.

600 million in North America?

It also depends on whether the next competitor agrees!

In the face of the strong impact of the joint efforts of the three works, the box office trend of "Gravity" is particularly stable. Even in the Halloween schedule, this movie has still become the first choice for many family movie viewing crazes. Should this be considered unexpected? Or is it reasonable? But no one can tell now.

In the fifth week of its release, the box office curve of "Gravity" was boosted by Halloween, and it walked out of a beautiful recovery curve. The three-day weekend box office decline was successfully controlled at 28%, and finally achieved 2,700. At the same time, the cumulative box office has also reached 490 million, only one step away from 500 million!

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