Chapter 1192 Opportunities and Obstacles

There is a huge disparity in strength between the two warring parties: "The war in Iraq has basically become a war of suspense.

but. The impact of this war on the world economy is full of suspense.

As the war situation becomes increasingly clear, major world economic organizations have recently predicted that the world economic growth rate will remain above 3% this year. The biggest impact of the war was the U.S. economy.

Due to the expected impact of war on Iraq. The consumer confidence index has been greatly affected by Jing Liang, which is obviously detrimental to economic recovery, especially as international oil prices begin to rise.

Regarding this point, Fan Wubing saw it very clearly. The economic response before each war was almost the same, when the clouds of war were gathering. In other words, when expectations for future wars are still unclear, international oil prices will generally rise. As the war begins and the situation becomes clearer, international oil prices will fall accordingly, the U.S. stock market will begin to rebound, and the U.S. dollar exchange rate will continue to strengthen.

Therefore, Fan's Investment Group has also begun to make profits in the futures market and stock market in response to the current situation. If it works properly. Winning tens of billions of dollars can be considered a small supplement.

However, Fan Wubing carefully observed the views of some mainstream media. Most of them believed that the war in Iraq would not last long and would be beneficial to the world economy this year. However, we should also see the post-war developments in different regions and countries. It will be even more unbalanced.

The war has the greatest positive effect on the U.S. economy, benefiting war-related arms industries and other sectors. The post-war reconstruction of Iraq will bring a large number of orders to U.S. companies, and U.S. domestic investment and consumer confidence will increase accordingly. The United Kingdom, which actively participated in the war, will also receive greater benefits, while Russia, France, and Germany will receive less war bonus benefits. Therefore, war will lead to uneven economic growth in these countries.

War cannot fundamentally resolve the inherent contradictions of the U.S. economy, nor will it change the balance of economic power among major countries.

Some people think so. There was no doubt that the United States could win the war. But it may not necessarily win economic growth, because many of the problems facing the U.S. economy will not be solved because of the Iraq war.

First. It is because war cannot solve the problem of excess production capacity of the new economy. The economic recession in the United States in recent years stems from the excess production capacity of the new economy represented by the four industries. Although the war will help digest the production capacity of the new economy to a certain extent, it will Limited effect.

Secondly, the peak of the US real estate industry is passing. After the stock market bubble burst, Americans lost about $7 trillion, and the booming real estate industry in recent years has become the main force driving the U.S. economy. Americans have been recouped between $30,000 and $4 trillion in stock market losses through real estate appreciation.

But the latest one.

During this period, the housing vacancy rate in the United States had reached as high as 20%. Even a victory in the war could not expand people's demand for real estate.

In addition, exports of many manufacturing industries other than the arms industry are sluggish. Due to the economic downturn in Europe and Japan, U.S. manufacturing exports have been greatly affected. The war is unlikely to bring many positive factors to the economic recovery of Europe and Japan, so there is no hope for U.S. manufacturing exports in the short term.

Although the war will stimulate some industrial sectors in the United States, it is unknown how long this war boom can last. Due to huge war expenditures. The U.S. fiscal deficit and the international current account deficit have increased significantly. The negative impact of the twin deficits on the US economy cannot be underestimated.

Will the U.S. dollar remain strong? How far will oil prices fall? Will OPEC, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, limit production to protect prices? These are all unknowns.

At this time, Iraq's oil exports had limited impact on world oil prices. Oil price fluctuations were mainly caused by international capital speculation and public psychological panic. But once the Americans win. Then Iraq's post-war reconstruction will require a large amount of oil exports to pay for it. The export volume is naturally very different from when the United Nations oil-for-food program was implemented. With the end of the war and Iraq's increase in oil exports, a fall in world oil prices is inevitable, which will be beneficial to world economic growth. but. for each specific country. The situation is quite different.

The oil companies of the United States and the United Kingdom control 70% of the oil resources in Arab countries. Victory in the Iraq War will further consolidate their positions and the sources of oil for the two countries will be more secure. For France, Germany, and Japan For most developing countries, the source of oil is likely to be increasingly controlled by the United States and Britain. Energy security issues may become a new insecurity factor.

The Russian economy is in the process of recovery, and the rise in international oil prices will be an important driving force for Russia's economic recovery. Once the Iraq war ends, the drop in oil prices will have a major impact on Russia's economy.

One of the foundations of this year's Russian federal budget is that the price of crude oil remains at around 25 US dollars per barrel. If the oil price falls below 20 US dollars per barrel, Russia's budget plan for this year will be in vain, and Putin will feel a huge headache.

Experts also believe that the impact of the Iraq War and the Second World War is the last step in the process of economic globalization, and the global anti-globalization wave is developing rapidly. This time, the United States is pursuing unilateralism and intends to abandon the United Nations and launch a war against Iraq, which has triggered a global anti-war wave. This sentiment will definitely continue after the war. Become a driving force against globalization.

In the past two decades, with the rapid economic growth in Asia, especially East Asia, the economic relations between the United States and Asian countries have developed rapidly. By last year, the US international current account deficit was 500 billion US dollars, of which more than 200 billion US dollars were generated in Asia.

According to statistics from the International Monetary Fund, at the end of last year, the world had a total foreign exchange reserve of more than 2.3 trillion US dollars, of which about 60% were owned by Asian countries, and most of the foreign exchange reserves of Asian countries were invested in various bonds and stocks in the United States.

It can be said that it is Asian countries that support the strong position of the US dollar. At the same time, the arc zone from the Middle East, Central Asia to South Asia and East Asia has been in constant conflict and complicated in recent years, becoming a problem area that attracts the attention of the United States. Therefore. After the Iraq War. The United States will further strengthen its ties with Asian countries in politics, military and economy.

It can be foreseen that the impact of the Iraq War on the world economy will go far beyond whether it stimulates economic growth. Although from the perspective of stimulating US economic growth, the military expenditure brought about by this war and the post-war reconstruction of Iraq are a stimulus.

However, this war will be a major trauma to Iraq and the Middle East. The wealth created for many years has been destroyed. It is also a destruction of human wealth and a damage to human development. From the perspective of American taxpayers, a large amount of tax revenue that could have been used to increase social welfare and promote civilian technology development is used on arms that cannot be consumed by people, which is itself a huge waste.

Of course, the expected Iraq war is not the only factor affecting the domestic economy.

Due to the outbreak of the ** epidemic, a series of market development, business exchanges and other activities planned by many local governments have been significantly affected. The annual investment promotion activities have been affected, and some have been postponed. The transaction volume compared with the previous session has dropped by almost 80% compared with the previous session. Due to the domestic epidemic, although the mainland government has been emphasizing that it has nothing to do with it and the impact is minimal, the international response has been very obvious. For example, a branch of Fan Investment Group organized a delegation to participate in a business event in Vladimir, Russia, but it was unable to go because of difficulties in obtaining visas. The Philippine Commodity Exhibition scheduled to be held in March was also postponed to August.

Affected by this. Most of the orders for light industry, crafts, summer cloth, hemp cloth and other woven products that were sold based on samples have decreased significantly, the number of new customers for motorcycle products has decreased, and the export orders for agricultural products such as frozen pork have decreased significantly.

At the same time. Neighboring countries have begun to respond to the domestic COVID-19 epidemic, and the logistics of import and export goods have been affected. Myanmar has suspended China-Myanmar border trade activities, the Xinjiang section of the China-Mongolia border and the China-Pakistan Khunjerab Port have been temporarily suspended, and Lithuania has banned the import of animal-derived food and animals, raw materials, feed, feed additives, etc. from China, Thailand and Vietnam.

At present, some companies under the company have also reported that the governments or importers of Spain, the United Kingdom and other countries require domestic companies to issue COVID-19-free certificates for exported goods. Some importers in the United Kingdom and France have also proposed that Chinese inspection and quarantine agencies issue COVID-19 disinfection certificates for exported clothing, rubber, cartons and other products, which have increased the export costs of enterprises.

In view of the obstruction of face-to-face business activities, the Foreign Economic and Trade Commission proposed to vigorously develop sub-business and maintain normal trade order as much as possible.

Under this guiding idea, the Foreign Economic and Trade Commission recommended several online trade websites to key enterprises, including the e-commerce platform built by Fan Investment Group. At the same time, after a meeting with the head of the Foreign Trade and Economic Commission, Fan Wubing agreed to provide free support for the production of three-dimensional website advertisements and the publication of trade information on the website platform of Fan's Investment Group, and to establish a trade bridge for various enterprises on the e-commerce platform of Fan's Investment Group, providing the latest financial, insurance and other information services.

After receiving the strong support of Fan Wubing, the Foreign Trade and Economic Commission also began to step up the construction of the import and export commodity database, with special funds provided by the central finance to accelerate the trial operation of the port logistics network and build a platform for online negotiations and online transactions for enterprises.

At the same time, the central government also stated that it would provide a three-month online training course on e-commerce for all foreign trade and economic enterprises, and carry out online counseling and Q&A, etc. to improve the application ability of enterprises' e-commerce.

In short. Although ** has not officially entered the topic of high-level, some work has actually begun, especially Fan's Investment Group has begun to prepare for the arrival of the epidemic.