Chapter 1195: Zhou Gong's Words
After a while, everyone's attention was focused on the **epidemic artillery six, not six
But it is obvious that no one still takes this issue too seriously. What everyone is most concerned about now is Iraq. The Americans have been clamoring for Saddam and his son to leave Iraq, otherwise they will launch a military strike against them.
China has a lot of investment in Iraq, especially in oil. If the war breaks out. Then the losses here will be very large. Therefore, all the stakeholders involved are urging the government to play a role in this issue to avoid the outbreak of war.
"At least let the Security Council veto the US proposal and not let them send troops to Iraq under the guise of justice." A businessman who has invested heavily in Iraq said worriedly.
Fan Wubing doesn't care about this issue. Anyway, he doesn't have any investment in Iraq.
Some analysts also believe that once the US-Iraq war breaks out, it will definitely have an impact on the Chinese economy.
When US President Bush claimed that he would use "all forces" to completely defeat the Saddam regime. The new Gulf War has actually kicked off. It is imminent, as some US media said, the actions of the US military are equivalent to the early stages of the war.
Today, as the process of global integration intensifies, although China is far away from the battlefield, it is undeniable that once a war breaks out, the Chinese economy and Chinese stock market will inevitably be difficult to remain unscathed.
Simply put, once the US-Iran war breaks out, its impact will be transmitted to the Chinese economy through several channels such as oil, foreign trade, labor engineering, finance, and investment, and will have more or less impact on the domestic securities market.
Recently, due to the tension between the United States and Iraq and the shroud of war, international crude oil prices have risen sharply, and the increase has reached 30% in the past two months. If the United States and Iraq go to war, international crude oil may soar to more than US$40 per barrel, and petrochemical basic raw materials such as ethylene are expected to rise in the future. Plastic raw materials are also expected to rise, and the stock price of plastic raw materials has risen against the trend a few days ago.
The price fluctuations in the international oil market will have a significant impact on China's national economy.
On the one hand, the annual domestic oil imports account for about 30% of the total national oil consumption, and more than half of the imported oil comes from the Middle East. It can be seen that China's dependence on Middle Eastern oil is very high.
In comparison, Europe's dependence on Middle Eastern oil is only about 40%.
Compared with European countries that are loudly against the war, the pressure faced by domestic oil trade is obvious.
On the other hand, the upstream and downstream products and related products of oil are affected by its price,
and naturally there will be price fluctuations of varying degrees in import and export trade. As the most sensitive area of the national economy, the securities market has already responded to this in advance.
As the situation in the Gulf continues to deteriorate, most overseas stock markets have experienced a volatile decline. Although the Chinese stock market has not yet officially connected with the world stock market, it has already had a certain linkage phenomenon, and some oil stocks have begun to fall.
At present, the US military has already drawn its arrows and the war is imminent. The only question is how strong the Iraqi military force is and how strong the US military force is? If the US military action against Iraq can end in three to five days like the Gulf War in 1991, and solve Saddam in the short term. Establish a pro-Western Iraqi regime, then the United States may use Iraq to expand the Middle East oil market, promote a sharp increase in oil production, reduce costs and prices, and ultimately increase tax revenue through the decline in oil prices and the return of international capital to the United States. At that time, the international crude oil price will show a trend of rising and falling.
However, if the US-Iran war becomes a protracted war, the war will lead to further turmoil in the Islamic world, and the international crude oil price will soar to more than 40 US dollars per barrel. The continued rise in oil prices will lead to an increase in global production costs and have a serious impact on the world economy.
American corporate economic research institutions believe that if the war causes serious damage to oil-producing countries such as Iraq, Kuwait, and Saudi Arabia, the US economic growth rate this year may be only 1%. If the price of oil per barrel reaches 40 US dollars and lasts for about a month, the US economy will fall into recession. The world economy will be hit hard.
At present, many people in China are most worried that once the new Gulf War starts, the US economy will inevitably rise and fall with the changes in the war situation. With the increasingly obvious trend of economic globalization, the Chinese economy is gradually integrating into the world economy, and some major events in the world will inevitably affect China.
In the so-called era of globalization, whether China's affairs can be done well depends not only on itself, but also on the entire world economy.
With China's participation in...ization, the capital market will eventually be fully open to the outside world, and the fluctuations of the Chinese stock market will be increasingly affected by the international environment, and the interactive relationship between the domestic stock market and the surrounding markets will also be significantly strengthened. Therefore, if the second Gulf War breaks out. It will also have some direct or indirect impact on the Chinese stock market.
If the US-Iraq war breaks out, China's direct interests in Iraq will be damaged, and oil, arrears and some unfinished projects will be affected.
Under the original oil-for-food agreement, Chinese companies contracted a lot of Iraqi projects, some of which were quite large in scale. Chinese light industrial products and durable consumer goods can be seen everywhere in Iraq, such as products, hardware and mineral products, trucks, Chinese clothing, etc.
Once the war breaks out, the completion of these projects will be in question. A large amount of unfinished project costs will be wasted, and there will be little certainty of recovery of funds for some completed projects. Once the war ends and the Iraqi puppet government under the control of the United States comes to power, the Iraqi market will be completely under the control and monopoly of the United States. It will be very difficult for Chinese companies to try to enter this market again.
But some people have put forward different opinions. I think the outbreak of the US-Iraq war may be a good thing for China.
First, the war will exacerbate chaos in Islamic countries. While many Islamic governments are pro-American. However, the hostility and hatred of the Islamic people in most countries towards the United States will become increasingly deepened as a result of this war, which will lead to internal social turmoil in these countries, leading to economic turmoil and political turmoil. Secondly, the United States and Britain insist on going their own way, regardless of the opinions of EU countries, which has also caused further differences among interest groups in Western countries. After the war ends, Americans and investors who hope to gain American wealth will inevitably face more severe terrorist actions. Under this sense of crisis. How much money is willing to return to the US market is indeed a question.
In comparison, China's safe internal and external environment and generous investment returns are undoubtedly more attractive.
In fact, in recent years, with the continuous enhancement of China's comprehensive national strength and the relatively stable domestic environment, the Chinese market has attracted more and more attention from international investors.
What everyone is arguing about is nothing more than a discussion about whether the United States will really go to Iraq.
Fan Wubing felt bored after hearing this. He said frankly, "It is already a certainty that the United States will go to war in Iraq. Why discuss this issue again? Every time the United States goes to war, it is making money. It finally got another chance to go to war, and the battlefield is still in Iraq, which is full of oil. , how can the American conglomerates let go of such a good thing? The people and soldiers who died were the huge profits of the big conglomerates. In comparison, what is more important and less important? Can't you tell at a glance? come out?"
"But the Americans do not have the authorization to go to the Security Council." Someone objected to Fan Wubing's opinion.
Fan Wubing sneered and said, "This is a fair statement. There is a saying that has long been popular among the people. Americans can hit whoever they want. Whoever the Russians hit me, I will hit. As for us China People, hey, I will scold anyone who hits me. This is the case with folk rumors. Do Americans still need to care about the approval of the Security Council?"
As soon as Fan Wubing said these words, the faces of all the people present turned red and white. Obviously everyone has heard this sentence, but they just didn't expect anyone to say it in public.
"I got the information that the Americans are going to go to war on the 20th. Now I have entered the stock and futures markets with all my positions, just waiting for this windfall of war!" Fan Wubing unabashedly pointed out the outbreak of the war. date.
"What's the date today?!" Someone asked each other in the vertical scissors.
Obviously, if someone else had said this, everyone would have laughed, but if it were said from Fan Wubing's mouth, the effect would be quite different. Although everyone still doesn't know how Fan Wubing got the news, But what is certain is that Mr. Fan's words are usually very accurate. He even predicted the Zhaoda earthquake in Taiwan before.
The senior officials were also surprised. After all, the intelligence organization had not sent such news. It is the most difficult to predict the date when the war will break out. Even if everyone knows that a war will break out in the near future, it can be accurate to On any given day, it will still be very difficult.
How could Fan Wubing be so sure that it would be on the 20th? This is something that makes everyone feel incredible.
The new number one commander was equally surprised. I don't know if Fan Wubing is joking or if he really has the source of information. I can't help but look at Fan Wubing to get a more certain answer.
Fan Wubing suddenly noticed that everyone was looking at him, and he immediately felt that something was wrong, so he prevaricated, "Well, don't everyone look at me. The information I mentioned was told to me by Duke Zhou, but generally Duke Zhou treats me very well." He is very respectful and has never touched me, please just listen to me!"
Hearing that Fan Wubing actually said that he dreamed it, everyone burst into laughter and shook their heads. They all said that Mr. Fan was brave enough to make a joke on such an occasion.
However, some people are serious. For example, Fan Heng knows very well that his son Fan Wubing will not talk nonsense.