Chapter 1692 The London Housing Market that Will Collapse Sooner or Later

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"what?"

William and Hugh Grosvenor exclaimed at the same time.

This statement has to make the two dukes pale in horror. The London real estate collapse is definitely a huge loss for them, because not only Hugh Grosvenor, William himself is also a small landlord, and a considerable part of the asset allocation in his hands is real estate And real estate, once the price plummets, the loss can definitely be described as disastrous.

Yang Cheng pressed his hands, "Don't worry, in the long run, the housing market will definitely rise, but in the short term, I always feel that there will be a crash, just like the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States. This period is unpredictable. Maybe two or three years? Maybe even five or ten years.”

Hugh Grosvenor lowered his head thoughtfully, but William asked anxiously, "What's the reason? Have you heard any rumors?"

Yang Cheng shook his head and pointed at Hugh Grosvenor, "In fact, people with discerning eyes have similar feelings. If you don't believe me, ask Hugh, the skyrocketing real estate market in London and even the UK in recent years is actually a Ponzi scheme. "

Hugh smiled wryly, "I also just took over my family's business. The consultants and experts in the company also made similar arguments, but they were suppressed by mainstream voices. Most people's eyes were focused on the crazy profits, and they didn't care about the future at all. risks of."

Yang Cheng shrugged, "That's what I want to say, don't think too much, what if it's a Ponzi scheme? Even if the bubble bursts, so what? We just need to hurry up and make money, even if it collapses, we'll be with us." It doesn't matter.

That's why I emphasized that this project must be done quickly, complete the planning and design as soon as possible, complete the approval procedures as soon as possible, start construction as soon as possible, sell as soon as possible, and withdraw funds as soon as possible. There is only one key point of the whole project-fast! "

William pressed his forehead, "Wait a minute, my mind is a little messed up, can you tell me more about this Ponzi scheme?"

Hugh Grosvenor sighed, "If you think about it calmly, you can understand that it is actually related to the buyer's motivation to buy a house. Once the purpose of 'live' is lost, even though it appears in the form of real estate, the house It has become a financial product in a broad sense.

Today, the per capita debt in the UK has reached 8,000 pounds, which does not include the mortgage repayment part. Therefore, most working-class people in the UK are unable to buy houses. This shows that there are not a few investors who try to use short-term speculation.

For these home buyers, capital has always flowed around the world. They may not focus on the structure, function, and age of the house. The most important thing is the appreciation space. As long as the location is similar or the publicity is good, They'll be throwing a lot of cash into it, which explains why London has the hottest property market. "

Yang Cheng followed up and said, "That's right. However, the reason why hot money becomes hot money is because this money is only temporary and will not remain in the hands of investors forever. When the economy is cold, or some political factors lead to The cash craze is gone, will they still care about the London real estate they invested in before?

At that time, the London real estate in their hands will be tasteless, swallowing or spitting, cash flow will not flow, real estate transaction volume will drop, and the collapse will only be a matter of a moment. "

The few hairs left on William's head were disheveled in the wind.

"What do you mean by political factors?"

Yang Cheng let out a mouthful of dirty air, thinking of what that big mouth would do in the future, he wished to shoot him, no! Shoot for five minutes!

"Which place has the most hot money pouring into London now?"

William and Hugh Grosvenor, without thinking at the same time, replied, "America!"

"Yes, the United States, think about it, once the United States implements protectionist policies, such as tax cuts, trade protection, etc., the Fed then switches to the mode of raising interest rates, using three prongs. At that time, the hot money will be cold and lose the value of the currency. , the result is what I just said..."

William seemed to be hot. He unbuttoned his shirt and felt that his throat was a little dry. He took a sip of tea and asked,

"This is just a guess, who can tell the right policy?"

Yang Cheng laughed, "Okay, even if we don't mention the impact of the policy, we can draw the same conclusion based on the analysis of the current situation in the UK.

The simplest set of data shows that the average age of first-born mothers in two regional hospitals in London, Chelsea and Westminster is as high as 37 years old.

What causes it? Quite simply, the cost of living for London residents has skyrocketed like housing prices, and for the middle class, the senses should be the strongest.

For example, the cost of a four-year-old child's education in London's Thomas area is as high as 17,000 pounds per year, which does not include miscellaneous expenses, such as school uniform fees, activity fees, etc.

The middle class is facing enormous living pressure. How can they still afford to buy a house in today's record-breaking housing prices?

Money from all over the world has poured into London's property market, pushing up local house prices to levels that are quite unrealistic relative to average wages.

Of course, we cannot deny that, as one of the four major financial markets in the world, a large number of bankers from all over the world working in the City of London intend to buy properties there after receiving high bonuses. One of the driving forces behind it, but how can ordinary people have such a high income?

Compared with 20 years ago, the house price in London is now more than five times that of that year, and how much has the salary increased?

We Chinese have a saying that prosperity must decline, you should understand what it means.

House prices in London are breaking ceiling records again and again. How long do you think this situation can last?

Now there is just a lack of an opportunity to plummet.

And what we have to do is to finish this project quickly before the bubble bursts, and then make a fortune, and leave the market with a large amount of funds in hand. After the price falls to the bottom, we will use this cash to buy bottoms, back and forth. , the profits here are considerable. "

Hugh Grosvenor couldn't help but smile, "I agree with Jason~"

William smiled wryly, "Wait, I didn't say I disagree, I just want to know if there is any way to avoid it~"

"What? Avoid? Don't be so naive William, this is a general trend, none of us can stop it, such as Brexit, can you intervene?

Most potential buyers of real estate do not understand too many twists and turns. They only look at the appearance. The event of Brexit is not good for the UK on the surface. There is no reason for people to go to a city with many uncertainties in the future. buy property.

Those international investors who once used the London real estate market as a springboard to enter Europe will also maintain a relatively calm and cautious attitude.

Of course, as I said before, this short-term period may be 2 years later, why didn't I say 1 year?

Because a large number of investors from country Z set off a wave of acquisitions of landmark buildings in London, which will cover up the danger of a real estate crash, but for those investors who entered the market early, they will not give up their vigilance, and investors from country Z will not give up their vigilance. Money may continue to come in, and once both parties stop throwing money, there will be a 'bang', and the bubble will burst! "

He made a gesture of exploding with both hands, imitating the sound of the explosion in his mouth, and it shocked William.

Hugh Grosvenor laughed gloatingly, was glared at by William, and said, "According to this way of thinking, investors from the Middle East, another big player in London's real estate market, especially Saudi Arabia, are also worth noting.

Since last year, Saudi Arabia and the United States have competed in the field of shale oil. Oil prices have continued to fall, and a large amount of cheap oil has flowed into the market in an attempt to seize more shares. Affected by this, many Gulf Arab countries will face heavy budget deficits, which also means that these The country and some nationals have been unable to spend much money on the London real estate market.

Rich people in the Middle East are no longer able to invest and are actively attracting overseas funds to return to China. Against this background, the interest of large sovereign wealth funds and wealthy individuals in investing in the London real estate market has greatly weakened. For food support, relying on the money of only a few people can't support the basic market of the real estate market in London, so the collapse is not difficult to understand! "

Yang Cheng clapped his hands, "That's right! Besides, as I said just now, your British government not only can't come up with effective remedial measures, but you may even stab yourself. Recently, some MPs have been advocating the anti-corruption measures in the city of London." Proposals to expropriate vacant homes owned by the rich?"

He is not talking nonsense. Indeed, some MPs proposed in the newspaper that the idle houses of the rich should be expropriated and distributed to the poor without houses. High-end mansions or luxury homes serve as a land bank for the future, while the city's homeless are struggling to find a place to live.

In this regard, Yang Cheng’s opinion is that the idea is good, but there is no room for manipulation. Once this proposal is passed, the rich people in London will be reduced by half immediately, and the remaining half will not be able to leave. If they want to lose money, they will run away. Is London still London without the rich?

At that time, the result will still be the same, and the real estate will still collapse.

Can you imagine what it would be like to have only poor people left in London?

However, judging from the current debt ratio of the British people, this scenario is not difficult to realize. After all, even the middle class is almost unable to get a credit card.

William shook his head helplessly, "I'm really powerless, but Jason, can I relay your views today to my grandmother? I think it's necessary to let her know about it."

Yang Cheng hesitated for a moment, "Of course, but let me explain in advance that this is only my personal opinion, and I will not be responsible for it. In addition, I will not give up the money I should have earned because of this opinion."

Hugh Grosvenor immediately said, "I support Jason! Although I am also British, I don't want to see the sad scene happen, but since we can't stop it, we can only do our own thing."

William Xukong nodded the two little tricks, "Don't worry, this company also has my interests~"

Yang Cheng slapped his thigh, "OK, according to what I said, plan the project as soon as possible and start construction, and try to start getting back the funds within two years. By the way, is there any objection to the construction team that the builder handed over to Yuanshan Capital?"

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