Chapter 759 Development Direction "Urgently Seeking Monthly Tickets"

After Boss Langzhu finished chatting, Fan Wubing put down the phone. There's a stir going on inside.

Papermaking is an asset-heavy industry. Every additional 10,000 tons of pulping capacity requires an investment of about 100 million yuan. For every new 10,000 tons of whiteboard production capacity, the investment amount will be around 40 million.

Nowadays, the severe pollution problem of small paper-making enterprises has caused a great headache for the government. In order to raise the industry entry threshold and reduce the number of local government approvals for paper-making enterprises, the State Council also issued a temporary regulation on the paper-making industry. The introduction of this temporary regulation has improved The starting scale of new projects has been determined, and according to Boss Zhu. The State Council intends to include imported paper cutters, waste paper shredders, pulp machines, paper machines and other equipment in the "Catalogue of Imported Commodities Not Exempted from Duty Free for Domestic Investment Projects".

Fan Zhubing is naturally very clear that once this policy is implemented, it will also have a great impact on various paper-making enterprises. However, according to General Zhu, my country will allow companies to deduct the value-added tax on newly purchased equipment. This is also a small and significant change for the papermaking and paper products industry with huge investment.

It’s hard to say now whether closing a window and opening a door is an advantage or a disadvantage. But one thing can be concluded that the domestic paper industry will face a very big change. The survival problem of small and medium-sized paper-making enterprises will be solved in a short period of time. What they face is two roads, one is to let it go. The other option is to be acquired by a large paper company and pursue joint development. Apart from this, there is no other way.

Not long after, Davis, the head of Dagger Sea Headquarters, had a video call with Fan Wubing. He reported to Fan Wubing the results of recent surveys on the domestic paper products market.

Most of the products in the paper industry are sold domestically. Compared with export-oriented industries, the external economic situation has relatively little impact on the paper industry. However, in the industrial chain, because the downstream customers of paper products were greatly affected by the financial turmoil, after the Southeast Asian financial crisis, domestic orders also decreased, and companies massively reduced production. Affected by this, the sales of paper products were greatly affected. A big impact has caused overcapacity.

"The financial turmoil has greatly impacted companies that mainly focus on export trade, and export goods have dropped significantly. These companies are the most important customers for digesting paper products. Because they have reduced production, the paper products industry market has shrunk. This is unavoidable. Because the paper products industry is only a link in the entire industrial chain. If there is a problem in the economic environment, a single enterprise or industry will definitely be affected." Davis analyzed the overcapacity of the paper products industry.

In the past year or two, the domestic papermaking and paper products industry has been in a period of rapid expansion. However, during the process of rapid expansion, many companies have encountered the problem of financial constraints.

Davis told Fan Wubing, "Some small and medium-sized enterprises in the industry have encountered financing problems, and even some large enterprises have also encountered the problem of tight capital chains. Financial constraints have become an important bottleneck affecting the development of domestic paper-making enterprises. ”

At present, the capital settlement methods of most domestic paper-making enterprises are lagging behind. Suppliers generally have to wait until customers sell their products before they can receive payment. This process usually takes three months, and some even take half a year.

At present, affected by the financial crisis in Southeast Asia, customers are having sales problems, causing manufacturers, suppliers, etc. to be unable to get payment on time or even, resulting in a shortage of funds.

In the current economic situation, perhaps cutting costs will be a measure taken by many companies, but Davis believes that the paper industry can also save greater costs through effective management and operations. He said that the era of cash is king has arrived, and companies must have money in hand so as not to panic.

"For us, these are not big problems, but since we want to enter this industry, we must have rules and regulations and not be confused. What suggestions do you have about this?" Fan Wubing naturally has no worries about funds, but Since you want to enter the market, you must have the patience to follow the rules of the industry. It is also important to adapt to the environment and follow the trend. Just knowing that throwing money into it is wrong, at least let the business itself run effortlessly.

Davis said to Fan Wubing, "It's actually very simple. I have carefully studied this problem. First, companies should cut down on unnecessary procurement expenses. Try to reduce management costs and reduce daily expenses of the company. Currently, we use The global network office management system can solve this problem to a large extent and has innate advantages that they cannot match. Second, the paper industry must work together with suppliers to overcome difficulties with downstream customers, for example. The settlement period for both parties was originally two kilograms per month, but now it is shortened to one month, which can also reduce the financial pressure on each other. "

"If you do this, the pressure on suppliers will increase, which will easily cause them to respond negatively." Fan Wubing hesitated.

Davis replied, "That's true. But they have no other choice."

Papermaking is a capital-intensive industry with significant economies of scale. In terms of funding. The paper industry's output value of 100 yuan occupies fixed assets equivalent to those of petrochemical, metallurgical and other industries. Especially for high-end product production lines, the investment for high-grade paper per 10,000 tons of production capacity is approximately 100 million yuan, and the investment for high-end chemical pulp per 10,000 tons of production capacity is approximately 150 to 200 million yuan. Paper industry projects often require investments of several hundred million yuan. .

In terms of scale, the average size of the world's pulp mills last year was 210,000 tons, including 380,000 tons in North America, 330,000 tons in Japan, Indonesia, and South Korea in Asia, and 200,000 tons in Western Europe. The average size of the world's paper mills About 80,000 tons, including 180,000 tons in North America, and 80,000 tons in Indonesia, South Korea, and Japan in Western Europe and Asia.

As far as a single production line is concerned, the scale of pulp mills currently producing wood pulp in the world is generally considered to be more than 300,000 tons, and the output of cardboard paper machines is generally considered to be more than 150,000 tons.

The capital-intensive and economies of scale characteristics of the papermaking industry determine the special significance of capital for the development of papermaking enterprises. The self-accumulation method of production and operation obviously cannot meet the needs of rapid expansion of enterprises. What is more important or more effective is to use capital. Operations are implemented through external transactions.

That's why Davis said that suppliers have no other choice. After all, the demand for paper products in the domestic market is growing, but there are only a few domestic papermaking companies, especially large papermaking companies, that can produce certain high-end paper products. Paper companies are even rarer, so this is a seller's market.

There is no other reason than that there is too much investment in high-end paper and the barriers to entry are very high. Ordinary companies cannot afford it. Even if you raise money, you still have to consider the financial pressure. There are still these around you. Foreign-funded enterprises are eyeing it. They will start a price war with you based on their old capital, and they will immediately bring you down. When they raise the price back later, there will be no rivals left.

However, compared with the high investment, the profit margins of some projects have declined compared with before. Take coated paper as an example. A few years ago, the price was as high as nearly 10,000 yuan, but now the average price on the market is about 9,000 yuan. Although there are impacts from changes in raw material costs and other factors, it is an indisputable fact that the profits of coated paper products are getting thinner.

The reason is that in the past planned economy era, due to financial constraints and cumbersome national approval procedures, the speed of project launch was very slow. For example, a coated paper manufacturer with a production capacity of only 10,000 tons could occupy the leading position in the industry. In this case, if a papermaking company produces high-end new products that are popular in the market, few competitors will be able to keep up with them in the short term, and this company will be able to gain market share for a longer period of time. High profits.

However, with the development of the domestic economy. In recent years, investment entities have been diversified and approval authority has been expanded. When a high-end new product with high profits appears on the market, other companies and investors will quickly follow suit, and the new project will be completed and put into production soon. As a result, the supply of this new product exceeds demand and the cycle for obtaining high profits is greatly shortened. The actual return on investment of the project may be lower than expected.

It is the nature of capital to pursue profits. When it is discovered that huge investments fail to achieve the expected results, will capital continue to invest heavily in the paper industry? The answer is of course no. Therefore, except for a few foreign-funded papermaking companies such as Jin Guangyang, which have already taken advantage of the competition, there have been no foreign-funded companies involved in this industry recently. As for the new domestic projects, they are just some private companies. Only small and medium-sized paper-making enterprises.

After Davis reported his work to Fan Wubing for a while, he said to him, "In fact, if it weren't for the internal information provided by you, boss, that we might be able to replace Jin Guangyang and other foreign-funded enterprises in the country, I would not In favor of investing in the paper products industry.”

"Why?" Fan Wubing asked curiously. Davis rarely opposed his opinions.

"It is because of the arrival of the information age that it has had a huge impact on the traditional paper industry." Davis replied.

From the functional point of view, paper can be mainly divided into three categories: industrial packaging paper, household paper, newspapers, writing and printing paper, and cultural paper.

The main function of cultural paper is as a carrier of information recording. After the mid-1990s. With the development of the Internet and information technology, some people have predicted that the demand for paper will decrease due to this impact. However, the actual situation in the past two years is that the consumption of cultural paper has not decreased, but has grown rapidly.

The reason for this phenomenon is that with the application of network technology, the amount of information people obtain has also increased dramatically. Even if the information that needs to be printed is only a small part of the network information or emails, the actual paper usage The quantity is also relatively large.

But just when people thought their previous judgments were wrong, things were changing.

With the rapid development of electronic information technology, especially the development of information storage technology and information browsing terminal equipment, cultural paper as an information recording carrier has been impacted by substitution.

For example, the emergence and rapid development of mobile hard drives and concave devices have made paperless office a reality. Especially the Internet. Equipment such as Liaoning broadband and optical cables can already be connected to ordinary people's homes. Wireless Internet access and mobile Internet access are also becoming increasingly popular. People communicate, exchange and learn through the Internet. These things, which were originally veiled in high technology, have increased in price as their prices have increased. has dropped significantly and is becoming a part of people's daily lives.

"Your consideration is not wrong, but you must also look at other aspects." Fan Wubing expressed understanding of Davis's concerns, and he also said, "Although office paper is being reduced, other aspects Paper consumption is increasing. The total amount of paper products used is still increasing rapidly, and we don’t have to worry about the sales market shrinking.”

In fact, there have been instances where traditional products have been impacted due to the development of new technologies. For example, in the early 1990s, the state invested heavily in the establishment of the Dalian Huahu Video Recorder Manufacturing Factory. However, as soon as the project was completed, it was impacted by the new Beijing Machinery that appeared on the market, and the company collapsed.

For the paper industry, industrial paper and household paper will have greater consumer demand with the development of society, but the consumption of certain types of cultural paper may be affected or even seriously shrink. The development of electronic technology has had a huge impact on the replacement of certain cultural papers. It may have a revolutionary impact like D completely replacing video recorders. This is an issue that paper companies must consider when investing in projects for the future. It is also an issue that affects the current situation. There is a shadow on the development future of cultural paper production enterprises.

But generally speaking, as long as you choose the right investment direction, you can avoid this. Trouble, develop yourself effectively.

"However, there is one thing that requires our special attention. Fan Wubing touched his chin and said to Davis in the video, "Today's Internet has a great conflict with traditional media. It can be expected that in the future, the circulation of newspapers will increase. will be greatly affected, but the demand for books will increase, especially the number of textbooks will increase to a great extent. This should also be a direction we need to pay attention to.

"The boss is really far-sighted and admirable." Davis sincerely praised him. In his eyes, or in his experience, Fan Wubing has never made any mistakes in these general directions. This time's inference about the paper products market is also in line with my own survey results in recent days.

However, my conclusion is not as accurate and clear as the boss's. It can only be said to be a slightly exposed trend.

However, no matter what, he should strictly follow the strategy proposed by his boss. This is also the magic weapon for Fan Investment Group to grow into a behemoth in such a short period of time. There is no doubt about it.