Chapter 1933 Panic in the Shock

The outbreak of the financial crisis was not what outsiders saw. It was triggered by the sudden collapse of Lehman Brothers and Merrill Lynch, which triggered the dominoes.

In fact, there have been omens for a long time, but many people can't see what's hidden behind it.

What started first was actually not the subprime mortgage crisis that broke out at the beginning of last year. That was already the first stage of the financial crisis.

The first sign is actually the boom in US residential real estate.

Why is American real estate booming?

Their population is only more than 300 million, not even a fraction of the population of China, but the land area is about the same as that of China, and it is not the poor territory of Australia that can only survive on the corners of the sea. Huaguo is more suitable for farming and living!

The real estate boom and decline are all due to the imbalance between supply and demand.

When there are many people who need to buy houses, but there is only a small supply, then real estate will flourish and housing will be expensive. An example of this is Hong Kong.

When the supply of land is extremely large, but the population in need of housing is very small, then the real estate must be in decline.

For real estate in the United States, you can say that super-large cities such as New York and Los Angeles are booming, but the real estate market in all parts of the United States is booming, which is very abnormal. ——People in your small city can’t see a few, so why are apartments and villas so expensive? Why are house prices so high?

This can basically be seen as a financial bubble. Huge foam.

Since it is a bubble, it will burst one day. When it develops to the craziest, it is basically the time when the bubble bursts.

It is precisely because of the boom in American real estate for a full decade that this is the most terrifying.

If it is hot for two or three years. Then it declines once, then becomes popular and then declines again, which is not a big problem.

When the bubble grows bigger and bigger, and finally bursts with a bang, such a huge power is not something ordinary people can bear, and the United States can't bear it either.

therefore. The 2008 financial crisis was so severe. To put it bluntly, it is all gathered bit by bit.

Now in August 2008, it was not too long before the explosive package exploded in Xiao Qi's memory, and more signs were revealed.

On the first day of August, Germany's largest bank, Deutsche Bank, announced the acquisition of Deutsche Bank, which is in the midst of a storm of subprime debt losses, for 13.3 billion euros.

As the third largest commercial bank in Germany, Deutsche Commerzbank definitely not only has a market value of 13.3 billion euros.

But the problem is. Because of the huge amount of subprime debt financial products involved, Wall Street, Xiao Qi and others severely cheated them. After more than a year of hard work, Deutsche Commerzbank’s losses have exceeded 70 billion euros. More than 30 billion came out.

Such a huge loss is simply not something a commercial bank can bear.

Banks are very rich, but most of them belong to customers. Countless small and medium-sized customers and large customers put their money in the bank for storage and investment, and only then have the bank's huge amount of funds. In fact, the capital they earn by themselves is not a lot.

So if Deutsche Commerzbank is not saved, it will collapse completely!

No country's financial system can allow its own country's large commercial banks to collapse, even if they are not Huaguo, and these banks are not state-owned banks.

Because the interests of hundreds of thousands, millions or even tens of millions of ordinary people are involved behind these commercial banks, and these ordinary people are the foundation of the country. Once their fundamental interests are damaged, I dare not say that the country is ruined, but at least the country's finances are completely ruined.

Now is a time of peace, and finance largely represents the strength of a country. If one of the most important strengths of a country is gone, how can you have a stable regime and a stable environment?

Therefore, on this principled issue, there cannot be chaos at all, and such a large bank cannot be allowed to fail at all. ——Didn’t the large amount of banknotes printed by the Federal Reserve be given to American banks and investment banks? It doesn't matter if the whole world scolds them, because they know what is face and what is inside.

Now Deutsche Bank is doing ahead of schedule what the Fed will do later.

It's just that the Germans are more face-saving than the Americans, so they will use this method to buy and help resolve the crisis.

Once Deutsche Commerzbank is acquired, Deutsche Bank’s purchase of the bank will not only do no good, but will incur tens of billions of euros in debt for it. The phrase “asking for trouble” is used here, but it is not a derogatory term .

Germany is Europe's largest economy and one of the most important supporters of the European Union.

Even their third largest commercial bank can't support it, let alone commercial banks in other small and medium-sized countries. Since July, it has been revealed that more than 6 large and small banks have fallen into losses due to subprime debt. Less or a huge loss.

The United States can hide it for the time being, but the EU can no longer hide it. For a while, the central banks of many countries and the European Central Bank have started various rescue measures.

In fact, this is not the first time they have encountered this kind of thing in the past two years. From 2007 to now, more than 20 large and small banks have fallen into crisis, and several commercial banks in small countries simply went bankrupt.

So the big guys also feel that this is just a normal phenomenon, and I'm afraid it will be fine after the difficulties are overcome.

At the same time, the banking and financial industry in Asia is actually in the same chaos.

Just two days after Deutsche Bank announced the acquisition of Deutsche Commerzbank, Japan’s Mitsubishi Financial Group announced the acquisition of Sakura Tobu Bank, which was in huge losses. The second largest commercial bank, Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation, issued a communiqué with a loss of more than 600 billion yen in the first half of this year, setting a new high in 50 years.

Ok.

Of course, the main losses of these three banks in Japan are in financial derivatives on Wall Street.

Among these financial derivatives, the most deceiving of them is the subordinated bond, which was originally thought to be a wealth management product with high interest rate, but tore off the veil of tenderness and defrauded them to death. Desperate, really all Japanese Banks can't even imagine it.

The one who suffered the most was naturally Sumitomo Mitsui Bank, which was the worst victimized by Xiao Qi. What they announced was only a part of the losses, and a small part of them had made overdue or future losses through various book methods. Reached the point of shocking.

But this is the case, Xiao Qi earned more than 3 billion US dollars from Sumitomo Mitsui Bank alone, second only to Deutsche Commerzbank, and there will be more in the future.

As for the Sakura Tobu Bank and the Musashi Commercial Bank, these two unlucky ones, who had no part in them, came forward to ask for the purchase of subordinated bonds. It is reasonable to lose so much.

It's a pity that the Japanese are still more cautious, and they don't buy as much as the Germans, and Sumitomo Mitsui is Japan's second largest commercial bank, and the Japanese are even less likely to let it collapse.

Otherwise, Xiao Qi brought down the Sumitomo Mitsui Bank. Wouldn't it be a great achievement to feel proud?

The Japanese do not know how much they have deployed in China through financial means, and they have suppressed the development of many Chinese companies. If they can cut off one of their hands, it will be very beneficial to our own industrial and commercial development. good thing.

But there is no rush.

The financial crisis will continue for many years, and Japan, the most unlucky country, has a super tsunami and nuclear leak crisis in 2011, which is enough for Xiao Qi to weaken the Japanese economic strength again and again!

Speaking of Japan, I have to mention JAL Japan Airlines, which Xiao Qi thought of on the way to the United States.

Japan Airlines Co., Ltd. is struggling now.

They have been implementing the policy of storing oil prices 8 months in advance, and have invested more than 30 billion US dollars in oil futures. At least a few days before July 11, they bought a large sum of more than 3 billion US dollars. When the oil futures of the United States encountered a move by the US Federal Court, my eyes were dumbfounded.

The price of oil has dropped by 20% in half a month at the speed of a waterfall. By the beginning of August today, the lowest price has dropped to 108.28 US dollars, which is lower than in the previous life.

It means that Japan Airlines has lost 9 billion US dollars in such a close month alone, and the pants are almost lost!

Seeing such a huge loss in oil prices, Japan Airlines is also powerless in the stock market. After slumping for five consecutive trading days, it has now ushered in another 12 trading days. The market value has directly shrunk and evaporated by 28%, and the entire company almost collapsed directly. .

Compared with them, Japan's second largest airline, All Nippon Airways, can only say that the situation is slightly better, but they also implement the 6-month oil price storage policy, and now they have lost more than 4 billion US dollars, and the annual loss is expected to exceed 10 billion !

Japan is just these two large airlines, which suddenly fell from the top ten in Asia to almost collapsed, which caught everyone by surprise.

As the only insider, Xiao Qi just watched with cold eyes.

Do you think that now is the most difficult time for you?

Dream it!

Now is simply the beginning!

Wait until the end of the year, when the price of oil plummets to about 45 US dollars, you will know what it means to cry without tears!

No matter how much you Japanese like to persevere, it is absolutely unsustainable under such a crushing atmosphere.

At that time, it's time to start cutting the meat slowly!

Fairy Air, should take the opportunity to usher in a great take-off! (to be continued ~^~)