Chapter 59 The Risk of Hot Money

Obviously, everyone is still not very concerned about education reform. After all, basic education has been calling for reform, while higher education has not changed much. At most, there have been some changes in enrollment, but the dominant direction of change is for Broadening the income of colleges and universities is not annoying, at least for these college teachers, this change is gratifying.

The increase in the income of colleges and universities means that the income of college teachers can be increased accordingly, which is a good thing.

So now everyone in the small meeting room began to have an equal dialogue with Fan Wubing.

A teacher in the department saw that everyone was embarrassed to talk to the student in front of him, and said, "Let me ask a question first, student Fan Wubing, why did you talk about hot money in your discussion?" Is the concept very important? Do you think that the hot money from international speculation is the main reason that shakes the stable economic development of Southeast Asian countries?"

This question is also a question that most teachers want to ask.

In recent years, under the influence of neoliberalism and new macroeconomic theories advocated by the ImF, the economic and technical bureaucrats in these countries, who are deeply influenced by mainstream economic theories, firmly believe that as long as they pay attention to and maintain a country’s macroeconomic stability and pay attention to the general The balance between supply and aggregate demand, the adoption of a demand management policy that mixes fiscal and monetary policies, and the opening up of the financial sector and the capital market will surely promote the inflow of a large amount of foreign capital, including funds in short supply, and drive sustained, stable, and high-growth economic growth.

Therefore, Southeast Asian countries have successively implemented reforms in the economic field, lifted the control on foreign exchange inflows and outflows, and relaxed the management of foreign direct investment, foreign credit activities, capital and currency instruments, and financial derivatives. While simplifying the original cumbersome foreign investment procedures, it has relaxed or even abolished many laws and regulations that hinder foreign investment from entering sensitive areas of the local country, facilitating the investment and trade of foreign multinational companies.

"The so-called hot money, generally speaking, can also be called hot money, or speculative short-term capital, short-term speculative funds that flow quickly in the international financial market for the purpose of pursuing the highest return with the lowest risk. The speculative nature of international short-term funds The main purpose of moving is to avoid political risks and pursue exchange rate changes. Interests from changes in the prices of important commodities or international securities prices, while hot money is a speculative behavior in pursuit of interests from exchange rate changes.” After thinking for a while, Fan Wubing said to everyone "Although the general definition can be said in this way, how to identify hot money and determine the amount of hot money is not an easy task. Because hot money is not static, some long-term capital can also be converted into short-term capital under certain circumstances, and short-term capital can be converted into Hot money, the key lies in whether the economic and financial environment will cause funds to turn from investment to speculation, and from speculation to flight.”

Fan Wubing looked at the crowd. I feel that they are listening carefully. It seems that in this day and age, people really don't understand this concept. Although they are also studying economic and financial issues, this kind of concept has just begun. The frenzy of hot money that has not penetrated into China has not been able to attract their full attention.

"I have some money." Fan Wubing waved his hand and said to everyone.

"Huh?" All the teachers present were a little surprised, not knowing what Fan Wubing wanted to say.

Fan Wubing continued. "The economic crisis in Japan back then. I also participated in it. The benefits are very considerable. Temporary access to the Japanese capital market like mine. Hot money purely for the purpose of short-term arbitrage. It belongs to the category of hot money."

"Did you really experience the Japanese economic crisis back then? How old were you at that time? Did you make a lot of money?" Someone immediately asked with concern.

"A lot of profits. Within a month. Through financial leverage. You can make profits more than ten times the amount of the principal. Very easy. I am in Shanghai's Fanshi Investment Group. The registered capital is several billion dollars. Most of the money here The funds are all earned from Japan." Fan Wubing did not answer the first two questions. Just answered the last of the questions.

"Are you the boss of Fan's Investment Group?! That Fan's Investment Group that is building two 33-story buildings?!" Someone immediately asked. Obviously they are paying attention to this international capital that has quietly appeared on the beach in Shanghai.

"It's true." Fan Wubing replied with a shrug. At this time. Fan Wubing could no longer keep a low profile. He needs to go into academia. exert their influence. In order to be able to give a powerful voice to the whole society.

Academia is a very sensitive place. Experts and scholars who are keen on talking in front of various media. Obviously not the generation willing to be lonely. As for whether their remarks can find flowers, bricks or plain water. Then we have to look at it according to his personal style.

But in general, academia will definitely not be noble, it can also be corrupted by money, and it is the most easily corrupted part.

The own academic atmosphere, in addition to producing countless masters, can also breed more academic liars.

In countless historical periods from ancient times to the present, the academic world has been exploited by others. For example, Qin Shihuang used the school's Han Fei theory to build momentum for his own expansion, Emperor Wu of the Han Dynasty relied solely on Confucianism and relied on Dong Zhongshu, and Li Tangqi respected Taoism The first ancestor, Laozi, after the Manchus entered the customs, countless scholars preached their orthodoxy.

As for speaking for the forces behind them in the economic field, many people are happy to do it. Whether it is praised or scolded, as long as they speak out, there will always be support. So his purpose It is also achieved that the conflict of interests can make the academic world more prosperous.

Fan Wubing doesn't mind recruiting some people for himself in the academic world, even if it is useless now, but when it is needed, this is a rare weapon that can be used.

As for the government, Fan Wubing believes that there are too few people who understand economics, and to formulate corresponding policies, especially economic policies, basically requires relevant experts and scholars to provide advice and suggestions for them, so they recruit quite a few people. Some students are very beneficial to themselves.

But in this way, the problem of hot money faded away, and everyone's attention was focused on Fan Wubing himself.

After a lot of discussion, Fan Wubing enthusiastically extended an invitation to the teachers, "If you are interested, why don't you come to our company for a visit, and by the way, let's discuss in depth how Japan was before the economic crisis broke out? , How about the international hot money attack?"

Of course, everyone will not have any objections. They are engaged in economic research themselves. There is no harm in having this kind of opportunity to visit a big company, not to mention that the person who invited them is a student with a mysterious background?

In fact, many of you here have studied the issue of economic overheating. Since Deng Gong’s southern tour last year, China’s economy has once again entered a high-growth cycle.

The good news is that the economy is showing a comprehensive recovery trend. According to the data of the National Bureau of Statistics, in 1991 the national construction in progress was about 900 billion yuan, and by 1992 it had expanded to 2 trillion yuan. That's an unprecedented 70 percent increase.

What is worrying is that the growth of investment is causing a series of related effects. The national production material price index has risen by more than 40%, the financial order has also become a bit disordered, underground banks are particularly active, and private lending rates are getting higher and higher. However, the official interest rate is useless. If those who are well-connected can get money from the bank, they can resell usurious loans at an interest rate of 20% or even 30%.

It is also against this background that the central government is determined to deal with the Shen Taifu incident seriously. In the view of the leaders, if the existence of Shen-style financing is condoned, then financial control is out of the question.

However, Fan Wubing also clearly knows that although the domestic economy is somewhat overheated, due to the long-term economic downturn, the brewing demand is very strong. Only the investment entering the country under the current degree of openness cannot disturb this pool. Sham Shui, the current domestic capital, basically as long as it is invested in, it will have a high return, and there is no need to go in and out of it.

Therefore, the targets pursued by international hot money are still those Southeast Asian countries that are highly open but whose economic framework is not well established.

For them, Fan Wubing has a mentality of watching the excitement. Whether it is Southeast Asia or Hong Kong, Fan Wubing doesn't mind making a fortune there, although Soros and others have a large amount of funds, as much as The scale is tens of billions of dollars, but if Fan Wubing concentrates, dozens of Soros bundled together will not be his opponent.

It's just that there are some problems in it. Southeast Asian countries, Fan Wubing can let go of the operation, but here in Hong Kong, unless he is fighting with Soros, the central government will definitely not let his temper make the country suffer.

However, this kind of thing is done according to the trend. If you create more clones, build a few overseas leather bag companies, and hire some traders to operate, it is not impossible. After all, it is a capital feast. It is indeed a bit unsatisfying.

After it was over here, Fan Wubing left the small meeting room, where the teachers were still chattering and discussing.

"Wubing——" someone called Fan Wubing's name again.

Fan Wubing looked back, but Tong Xiaoyun was waiting for him.

The two haven't seen each other for a while, this semester Tong Xiaoyun and the others have been sketching in other places, and Fan Wubing has stayed in Beijing for a long time, and there is almost no chance to get along.

After Fan Wubing and Tong Xiaoyun saw each other, there were some different emotions in their eyes, as if sparks were shooting out.