Chapter 2326 Earn Money with Confidence Earn Money with Courage

"There is also the oil price," Li Ruiyuan seemed to be uneasy for quite a long time, "The crude oil price has only adjusted four or five times since the beginning of the year, and each time it was a slight adjustment,"

"But the increase is consistent and large,"

Feng Yiping turned around on the sofa, "So, you also feel uneasy?"

He left this matter to Li Ruiyuan's team. He didn't remember the specific price, but he remembered the price on New Year's Day.

On New Year's Day, the quotes in London and New York were both around $56.

This price is lower than the end of last year, mainly because the climate was warmer before mid-January and demand decreased, so the oil price fell sharply-this is the magic of futures investment, which can be heaven in one second and hell in another second. When investing, you don't know what factors will make you lose all your money or soar to the sky.

Later, with the hype of heating oil demand and the news that Bush would expand the strategic reserve of crude oil - no one could predict this factor in advance, a large amount of funds began to buy crude oil futures at a low of around $50, and the position level hit a record high, and crude oil prices were gradually supported.

Then, facing the sluggish oil prices, OPEC took its usual approach. Since your price is low, I will cut production. In the first quarter, OPEC began to implement further production cuts (500,000 barrels/day), and suddenly, oil prices quickly stopped falling and rebounded to break through $60.

Then, in March, Iran detained 15 British Royal Navy personnel, and workers at the Marseille oil port in France went on strike. In addition, there were a series of refinery accidents... Oil prices broke through $65.

In the second quarter, Iran, a major crude oil supplier, accelerated nuclear enrichment, and Nigeria, another major crude oil supplier, triggered violent conflicts due to the election... In addition to more frequent refinery accidents, gasoline supply was tight in the summer, and crude oil prices fluctuated all the way up.

By July, gasoline demand in the United States once again led to an increase in oil prices - later this task was taken over by our great China.

...In short, from the end of July to now, the quotes in London and New York are exactly around $76.

Compared with the beginning of the year, it has risen by $20 per barrel, which is less than half. It seems that it cannot be compared with the increase in gold, but the scale of crude oil futures trading is much larger than that of gold futures trading.

International crude oil futures, one lot is 1,000 barrels. Take London Brent crude oil futures trading as an example, the daily trading volume is close to 500,000 lots, plus dozens of times of leverage, so, let alone $20 per barrel, even a difference of $0.2 per barrel, that is, a loss of $200 per lot, is enough to make many people leave the market sadly.

"Yes, it's not reliable, I feel the most unreliable in this area," said Li Ruiyuan, "Considering the impact of the subsequent financial system crisis in the United States, the global economy will slow down, so I always worry that this upward momentum cannot continue."

On the gold side, it is because of the continued high-speed rise that makes him feel unreliable, and on the oil side, it is because of the worry that it will not rise, which makes him feel unreliable.

So, this guy is quite contradictory. If it goes up, he is not at ease. If it doesn't go up, he is not at ease either... Can you be at ease?

"Yiping, under such circumstances, do you think we should still focus on long oil futures before mid-June next year?"

This is the main reason why he is not at ease.

It is already more than 70 US dollars a barrel. If the US subprime mortgage crisis breaks out - it seems that it will definitely break out now, then the economies of various countries will definitely be greatly affected. In that case, gold can still rise, but how can crude oil rise?

He does not believe in the view that the bull market for commodities is coming - resource products such as oil and minerals will reflect their scarcity through prices.

Scarcity is always relative, and the supply and demand relationship is more direct.

"Mr. Li," Feng Yiping paused for a moment, because someone quietly came to him and sat next to him.

That was naturally Ma Ling.

She pushed Feng Yiping aside, and Feng Yiping immediately happily made half a space for her on the sofa.

Ma Ling lay down next to Feng Yiping with satisfaction, adjusted a few times, put her head on Feng Yiping's chest, closed her eyes, and looked like she was preparing to sleep.

Feng Yiping immediately thought of those large dolls in the supermarket, pandas, monkeys or pigs, because the way Ma Ling held her was just like those children holding dolls.

Well, she will feel the difference later.

"Mr. Li, although most of the time, oil prices themselves are not the direct factor that triggers the financial crisis, from the results, the past economic crises and recessions often occurred after the oil price surge," he said.

"All occurred after the oil price surge?" Li Ruiyuan repeated.

After a while, he understood, "You mean, you mean... the crisis in the United States should not break out until June next year?"

"Yes, this is my judgment after combining many factors," Feng Yiping said.

So, when we know the correct result, it is really simple to find a few reasons that people can't find fault with.

He patted Ma Ling's back gently, just like coaxing a child to sleep.

Ma Ling opened her eyes and glanced at him, but didn't do anything. It looked like she was enjoying herself a little.

Feng Yiping felt that the thing lying in his arms looked a bit like a kitten.

"I understand, I understand," Li Ruiyuan said repeatedly.

"I understand your concerns, and I fully understand that the reason you are worried is for our benefit, but I still want to tell you..." Feng Yiping felt that he had done a good job of explaining and comforting, and was ready to end the conversation.

But Li Ruiyuan interrupted him again, "Yiping, speaking of crude oil, when will we clear our other investment, PetroChina's shares? Do we not need to clear them?"

"We all know that Buffett started selling his shares in PetroChina in the middle of last month,"

"Do we still have to wait until October to sell them? Or, can we actually consider holding them for a long time?"

"Look, according to your judgment, international oil prices will continue to grow in the future, and PetroChina has made new discoveries in oil and gas reserves, which are all conducive to its stock price increase,"

"In addition, with the current hot domestic stock market, blue-chip stocks such as PetroChina will definitely be strongly sought after by mainland investors once they return,"

"And the chairman of PetroChina recently stated that when returning to A-shares, the pricing will try to choose a low price to issue, and it must be affordable for every shareholder. Stocks,"

"Also, we all know that there are differences in the valuation of listed companies between the Hong Kong Stock Exchange and the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges. Blue-chip stocks like PetroChina, or red-chip stocks, tend to have lower stock prices on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange,"

"But domestic regulatory agencies will refer to the valuation and pricing of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange when reviewing these companies that return to the A-share market. If the gap is too large, it will be difficult to pass the regulatory review, so companies will generally try to stretch the stock price of Hong Kong stocks before that..."

"Mr. Li, Mr. Li," Feng Yiping interrupted him, "I understand, and I agree with you, so we don't have to follow Buffett and sell now, but as late as possible, before it returns,"

"Oh, you mean that before returning to the A-share market, the price of PetroChina's H shares will continue to rise, but it is conservative about the subsequent trend?"

"Yes," Feng Yiping said bluntly.

If you want to talk about the most pitfall stocks in China, PetroChina is definitely one of them.

On the day of its return to the A-share market, it closed at 43.96 yuan per share, 1.6 times higher than the issue price of 16.7 yuan. However, that day was the day when its stock price peaked. In the following month, the stock price fell by one-third, trapping nearly 200 billion yuan of funds.

Many years later, its stock price has been hovering below 10 yuan (therefore, I believe that when Jiang Moumou, then chairman of PetroChina, was investigated later, many people must have felt that they had finally let out a grudge).

"I understand your concerns and the starting point of your concerns, but you can put your heart at ease for these projects I proposed to operate. It is still the established strategy to start selling and cashing out in October. The proceeds after cashing out, whether it is 10 billion or 15 billion, will all be long on crude oil futures in June next year."

"Okay, don't think too much, eat well, sleep well, make money boldly, and don't feel uneasy."

The key is that my time is precious now.

He really wants to say domineeringly that in the future, don't bother me for transactions around 1 billion.

As soon as he stopped, Ma Ling opened his eyes.

"Go back to your room and sleep. After having a midnight snack, it's best to exercise," Feng Yiping said.

Ma Ling gently hit him.

"Or, can we set up a tent here?"

"Can the tent be soundproof?" Ma Ling said.

"Soundproof? What soundproof?" Feng Yiping looked confused.

"Pa," his little chest was hit again...