Chapter 856 The Pseudo Logic of ‘High-Low Switching’!

"I think it's hard to get out of it." Fang Xinsheng said, "The reason why the core themes of 'big finance', 'big infrastructure' and 'military industry' are so strong this year is that the core supporting logic is that the expectations for these core themes are very strong this year. First, the macroeconomic strategic planning of 'New Era Road and Maritime Silk Road' stimulated the external demand for the entire 'big infrastructure' theme.

Then the policy stimulus on the reform of central enterprises and state-owned enterprises, the restructuring of military assets, the securitization of military assets and other east wind stimuli.

In addition, with the arrival of the bull market, the rapid surge in transaction volume and turnover in the two markets provided a strong foundation for the 'big finance' theme, especially the securities sector, to explode this year.

It is all these expectations that support the core themes of 'big finance', 'big infrastructure' and 'military industry'. The logic of the main line.

As for the two main lines of "new stocks" and "film and television media", they are also particularly strong and can be cashed in logical support.

In June this year, the "Film Market Revitalization" plan jointly proposed by six ministries and commissions gave subsidies to the entire domestic film market, which directly boosted the box office of the film market in the second half of the year, thereby injecting performance growth expectations into major film and television companies and the entire entertainment and film and television industry chain.

With this strong expectation of skyrocketing performance and firm policy support.

There was a comprehensive outbreak of the "film and television media" sector in the second half of the year.

Similarly, the continued outbreak of the "new stocks" sector, as well as the logic of various short-term capital groups gathering in this field to hype it up, is also very clear.

That is because after the restart of IPO, the regulators In order not to add burden to the market.

It has severely compressed the financing amount and valuation level of IPOs of major companies. Regardless of whether they are companies in emerging industries or traditional industries, they are given a unified 22 times PE valuation when they go public.

This obviously gives new stocks an opportunity to be hyped up.

In addition, with the arrival of the bull market, the valuation level of the entire market has been passively improved.

Then, it is difficult for the sub-new stock sector with a chip advantage not to be gathered and hyped by various short-term capital groups.

These are the basic logics of these core main lines in the past, and they are also the most fundamental supporting force for these hot main lines to be continuously gathered and hyped by various funds in the past, and can support the upward movement of the market index.

But at present, let's look at the so-called main line "high and low switching" under the "big consumption", "nonferrous cycle", " The fundamentals of the main line areas such as 'petrochemicals', 'mobile Internet', and 'smartphone industry chain'.

As for 'big consumption', it can be said that under the expectation of economic recovery, after the confidence of news recovers, the investment logic of demand will increase, but the core main line sectors of 'non-ferrous cycle', 'petrochemicals', and 'coal' are completely blindly speculated by various funds.

At present, the cyclical main line sectors such as 'non-ferrous cycle', 'petrochemicals', and 'coal'.

Indeed, the valuation is very low, basically the lowest valuation level in history.

However, according to information from all aspects of the market, the fundamentals of these main line sectors and major industries are still deteriorating.

Thermal coal, aluminum, copper, zinc, iron, oil prices...

There is no sign of a cyclical reversal at all.

At present, the recovery of the global economy is not as strong as everyone expected.

It is basically impossible to drive the reversal of the entire cyclical main line with the expectation of economic recovery.

In the last round, the bull market in 2006 and 2007, we can see that it was mainly driven by the main line of the cycle and the main line of big finance.

Before the investment confidence and investment sentiment of the bull market were triggered by the "equity split reform" in that bull market,

What happened first was the big bull market pattern of the entire cyclical industry under the strong growth of the global economy.

It was the explosion of the entire non-ferrous metals and oil cycles that led to the scene of the cycle and finance going hand in hand in the entire bull market stage.

However, in this round of bull market.

This scene is completely invisible.

Not only can it not be seen, but it is also obvious that the fundamentals of the entire cyclical industry are still deteriorating. At the current valuation level, in the context of the continued decline in profitability of companies related to major cyclical industries, to be honest, it is difficult to support it.

Since there is no sign of improvement in its fundamentals.

Then, without the support of the underlying logic, how can emotions alone lead the entire main rising wave of these major main lines, and even want to pull the market with this?

As for the two core main lines of "mobile Internet" and "smartphone industry chain",

Indeed, we are in the Internet technology innovation cycle of the mobile Internet explosion. These two core themes are indeed the biggest investment outlets for the current social development and even for the next few years.

However, just because everyone knows that this is the outlet.

Therefore, any company, enterprise, or project with a little quality has been hyped up to the peak of valuation by various funds and capitals, or even the valuation bubble stage.

There is a saying in the investment market.

It is called consistent expectations, which usually cannot generate any excess investment returns.

I think that often too consistent expectations not only cannot generate excess investment returns, but may also put us into great investment risks.

In the two core themes of "smartphone industry chain" and "mobile Internet".

The listed companies in our A-shares are more or less mixed.

Its valuation has not been fully digested by the bear market, and for the past two or three consecutive years, the market has continued to speculate around these two main lines.

I think it is difficult for these two main lines to get out of the sustained independent market for the time being.

There is another reason.

That is the chip structure of these two main areas. For now, it is still very confusing.

It is because everyone knows that these two main lines are the outlets with high certainty in the future, so the financial groups that are temporarily trapped in these two main lines will definitely not easily cut their flesh.

However, they did not leave without cutting their flesh.

The market prices of these two main lines will continue to rise, forming an obvious suppression situation.

As a result, without obvious valuation advantages for these two main lines, there are not many main funds, or active short-term capital groups, to gather in to lift the sedan.

This is why these two main lines are clearly the focus of the future, with all kinds of strong logic and expectations.

However, in the past six months or even a year, it has continued to underperform the market. Except for the independent "Internet Finance" sector, no excess investment income has been generated.

Since 'big consumption', 'non-ferrous cycle', 'petrochemical industry', 'coal', 'mobile internet', 'smartphone industry chain'...these so-called relatively low-level main lines have their well-known investment logic flaws, it is impossible to Really let the funds pull up the market without any scruples.

So, why do we think these core main lines can support the strengthening of the market.

How to complete the replacement of a number of main line market markets with core investment logic such as 'big finance', 'big infrastructure', 'military industry', 'sub-new stocks', and 'film and television media'?

So...

I believe that the so-called "high-low switching" logic of the market's main line is the main line of the market.

In essence, it is a false proposition.

These are the logical advantages and disadvantages of each main line, as well as the corresponding logical flaws.

Furthermore, when we analyze purely from the index weight and the direction of the market value of the main stocks, we miss the two core main lines of 'big finance' and 'big infrastructure'.

For the rest of the main lines, in terms of market capitalization, it is difficult to completely drive the market.

So to speak…

If the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index wants to reach 4,000 points, it cannot be without the main attack of the two major weight lines of "big finance" and "big infrastructure".

In other words, before the adjustment of the two core main lines of "big finance" and "big infrastructure" is completed, and before the market investment sentiment and speculation sentiment can be regrouped, it will be difficult for the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index to continue to break upward and touch the 4,000 point level. A line of space.

And since the Shanghai Stock Index cannot go up in the short term, it can only adjust downward.

Then, the so-called low-level mainline concepts of 'big consumption', 'non-ferrous cycle', 'petrochemical industry', 'coal', 'smartphone industry chain' and 'mobile Internet' cannot drive the market due to basic investment logic flaws. , unable to withstand the market's adjustment at this position, it will naturally be difficult to be alone.

Most of the time, a short-term emotional counterattack fails to drive the entire market.

With the adjustment of the core main lines such as "big finance", "big infrastructure" and "military industry", it will continue to call back and find the bottom until it encounters more solid support, as well as stronger acceptance and copying chassis.

That is to say...

I think the market will probably experience a general decline in the short term.

Before the core lines of 'big finance', 'big infrastructure' and 'military industry' are adjusted in place, we don't have to follow the many funds in the market that think they are smart, or what everyone generally expects to do. Switch's investment strategy changes and corresponding position adjustments.

Be patient and wait...

Waiting for the market to quickly dig a deep hole under the strong stimulation of the main funds of the 'Yu Hang Series' is what we should do now.

Even though the basic bull market logic of the market has not been destroyed at present.

Even though the entire market is still in a bull market pattern and logic.

Then, we should not be too eager to buy the bottom and get back the chips we just lost.

In a bull market, it does not mean that the market will not fall, nor does it mean that the investor group will not lose money. In essence... in a bull market, everyone's cognitive requirements will be higher.

Which ones are real gold and which ones are gold-plated fake gold? We still need to carefully identify them. "

"Okay!" Liu Xin nodded and said with a chuckle, "If you put it like this, I understand. It seems that our next main investment goals and investment focus should still be focused on 'big finance' and 'big finance'. "Infrastructure', 'Military Industry', and 'Film and Television Media' are the core main lines."

Fang Xinsheng said with a smile: "Of course, under the background of the bull market and the macro-strategic background of the 'New Era Road and Maritime Silk Road' that the country continues to promote, the two core main lines of 'big finance' and 'big infrastructure' , it’s impossible to just reach the current position and end.

At this moment, these major adjustments are being made.

It was only created due to the excessive profit taking in the early stage and the "Yu Hang System" deliberately reducing positions on a large scale to stop profits.

As long as the underlying investment logic is not destroyed, then the chip structure will be stabilized again after several core main lines are adjusted to a certain position.

The market will naturally rise.

Development history based on past market conditions.

Often the main trend established from the beginning of a bull market will last throughout the entire bull market.

As for investment, it is easier to obtain excess profits if the core logic remains unchanged. Therefore, there is no need for us to adjust our investment ideas. We only need to focus on the market changes of the two core themes of "big finance" and "big infrastructure".

And these two themes.

As the two core themes with the largest volume and the highest index weight in the market.

It is also enough to carry the funds of our institution. Even if we make a move later than the main funds of "Yuhang System", it is completely in time.

After all, we don't have the concerns that the ship is too big to turn around like them.

The relevant trading seats of our institution will not have as many concerns as them in buying and selling chips. "

"Well, Mr. Fang is right. "After Fang Xinsheng finished analyzing the market trend and the motivation of the main capital of the 'Yuhang system', Mou Zhengxing pondered for a moment and agreed, "I also think that the market's 'high-low switching' is like a pseudo-logic, and it is unlikely to form a sustained market trend. On the contrary, the concept of the market continuing to fall is greater.

Because in fact, with the large-scale reduction of the core main capital of the 'Yuhang system'.

The overall bullish sentiment of the market, at least the overall bullish sentiment in the short term.

has collapsed completely.

In addition, after such a long period of market rise, the profit-taking in the hot main line areas of 'big finance', 'big infrastructure', 'military industry', 'new stocks', and 'film and television media' has accumulated a lot. At the end of the year, many institutions in our industry, whether public or private institutions, have the need for net value settlement and liquidation settlement.

In addition, after the central bank's interest rate cuts and reserve requirement cuts.

The market's policy expectations in the short term are also in a relatively vacuum stage.

Under the influence of so many factors, no matter how you look at it, the Shanghai Stock Index has no room and motivation to continue to rise, and can only continue to adjust downward.

And in the face of the continuous selling pressure in the hot main line areas of "big finance", "big infrastructure", "new stocks", "film and television media", "military industry", etc., in the absence of various favorable factors for long positions.

It is indeed difficult to imagine that the main line industry sectors such as "big infrastructure", "non-ferrous cycle", "petrochemical", "mobile Internet", and "smartphone industry chain", which are relatively weak and have relatively limited participation of main funds, can come out with independent market opportunities.

In general...

At this time, in terms of investment strategy and trading strategy.

Reducing positions to stop profits, or being patient enough and watching the market's clearer market trends in the future, is undoubtedly much better than participating in the idea of ​​"high-low switching". "(End of this chapter)