Chapter 871 Rebound or Reversal?

"Huh... I didn't expect the Shanghai Composite Index to return to 3,600 points."

Facing the closing results of the two markets, in the main fund trading room inside Zexi Investment Company in Shanghai, Zhou Kan stared at the frozen market of the two markets and said in surprise: "It seems that the Shanghai Composite Index still has strong support at this position, and the core themes of 'big finance', 'big infrastructure', 'military industry', and 'film and television media' have been adjusted continuously in the previous few trading days. Most of the internal profit-taking and unwinding orders have been almost cleared. It feels that the short-selling force suppressing the market is weakening, and the long-selling force... has begun to take the initiative in the market again."

"Although the Shanghai Composite Index has briefly regained the 3,600-point mark, but..." Next to Zhou Kan, Xu Xiang, who was also staring at the closing results of the two markets, was pondering After a while, he said, "There is no obvious improvement in the news and fundamentals of the market, and the general expectations of the investor group about the market have not changed. At the same time, the chip structure of core mainline areas such as "big finance", "big infrastructure", "military industry", and "film and television media" is still in a dispersed structure, making it difficult to form an effective concentrated long force.

From the current news, fundamentals, capital, chip structure... and other factors.

The index of the two cities at this time can't hold up at all.

The position of 3600 points doesn't seem to be able to support the market at this time and quickly reverse the market sentiment feedback."

"But at present, based on the closing results of the two cities today and the trend of the two cities at the end of the day..." Zhou Kan said, "'Big consumption', ' The core themes of 'smartphone industry chain', 'mobile Internet', and 'medicine' have somewhat replaced the core themes of 'big finance', 'big infrastructure', and 'military industry', showing a concentrated and strong money-making effect. Even if the 3,600-point position is not the bottom position of the market in the short and medium term, it should also be able to explain that the market's main investment style and investment hotspots are gradually changing, right? "

Xu Xiang said: "At the end of today's trading session, the market's investment style and hype hotspots did show signs of shifting from the previous core themes of 'big finance', 'big infrastructure', 'military industry', and 'film and television media' to 'mobile Internet', 'smartphone industry chain' and other small and medium-sized stocks, and a number of growth concept stocks in the direction of the ChiNext Index, but... This change in the main market has not yet been recognized by the market's short-term main forces. The recognition of the capital group has not formed a consistent bullish situation on the market.

If the main investment style and the core hot spots of speculation in the market have changed here.

And if the subsequent main investment style and speculation hot spots will continue to shift in this way... at least for now, this logic line does not make sense.

Analyze from the aspects of news, fundamentals, capital, and chip structure.

The core main lines of "big finance", "big infrastructure", "military industry", and "film and television media" are fully analyzed with the trend structure of the recent more resistant industry sectors such as "medicine", "big consumption", "mobile Internet", and "smartphone industry chain".

We found...

In fact, popular main line fields such as "medicine", "big consumption", "mobile Internet", and "smartphone industry chain".

In addition to the fact that the chips in the short-term structure are cleaner than those in the previous popular main lines such as "big finance", "big infrastructure", "military industry", and "film and television media", it does not have the so-called advantages in other aspects, nor does it have the logic to attract long-term investment from various main funds.

Take the two main lines of "medicine" and "big consumption" as an example.

In the bear market experience of the previous few years, the valuations of these two main lines have actually remained at a relatively high level.

Even the current valuation level is significantly higher than the overall valuation level of many popular stocks and popular industry sectors in the main line fields of "big finance" and "big infrastructure".

As for the two main lines of "mobile Internet" and "smartphone industry chain".

This is even more so.

Because the future expectations of these two main lines are clearly open.

Therefore, the valuation expectations of the vast investor groups inside and outside the market for a number of core stocks, related concept sectors, and industry sectors in these two main lines have never gone down, which has led to the overall valuation of related hot stocks and industry sectors in these two main concept fields.

And because everyone is optimistic about the future of these two main lines.

This also leads to the fact that the chip structure of these two main lines is still relatively chaotic.

It is just that these two main lines have not risen much in the previous "big finance", "big infrastructure", "military industry", "film and television media" and other popular main lines that have continued to soar, creating an expectation of low-level stagflation for the vast number of investors inside and outside the market.

And the emergence of this expectation has created a short-term rebound in these two main lines.

Similarly, other "non-ferrous cycle", "petrochemical", "animal husbandry" and other relatively stagflation and relatively unpopular main line concept areas, and their related concept themes.

In the recent market trend, the disk performance is obviously stronger than the popular main lines such as "big finance", "big infrastructure", "military industry", "film and television media", and the same is true.

In other words, due to its advantage in chip structure.

These concept sectors have the momentum to rebound.

However, the short-term rebound momentum and short-term emotional speculation cannot change the actual expectations of these main line areas, nor can they drive the market to form a sustained upward momentum, pulling the index back to the previous aggressive upward trend and sustained surge.

Analyze from the macro and fundamental aspects of the market.

At present, only the main lines of "big infrastructure" and "big finance" can support the continued rise of the market.

Only the two core main lines of "big infrastructure" and "big finance" have the macro trend of continuous improvement of fundamentals, gradual strengthening of future expectations, and increasingly strong macro trends.

So, on the whole...

I think the Shanghai Composite Index at 3,600 points can only be a short-term rebound expectation trend.

Rather than the so-called counterattack trend after the adjustment.

In the face of the current market rebound, we don't need to care too much, and we can't be blinded by the appearance of the short-term rise in the market. We should always see the essential logic and real core driving force of the market's rise, and keep a close eye on the changes in this essential logic and core driving force.

As for our investment strategy and trading strategy.

For the time being, there is still no need to change anything.

Just stick to our previous investment and trading strategies.

It will definitely be more appropriate to continue to hold low positions and patiently wait for further adjustments in the market and further clarification of the main trends before re-establishing long positions. "

"Okay." After listening to Xu Xiang's words, Zhou Kan pondered for a while, nodded, and said, "Since the boss thinks so, then we will continue to adhere to the previous investment and trading strategies, continue to wait for the market to adjust, and see if the Shanghai Composite Index can hold up at 3,600 points. "

"But..." Zhou Kan paused and said, "Today's trading volume in the two markets continues to explode, several hundred billion more than yesterday. This should be a good sign, right? "

Xu Xiang pondered for a while and said: "It is a good phenomenon, but we can't be too optimistic. The short-term increase in volume at this position can only mean that after falling from 3,800 points, many short-term trapped funds have initially stopped losses and smashed the market at this position. In other words, part of the panic market has finally come out in the continuous sell-offs for several days, which has reduced the selling pressure in the market in the short term.

This is also the reason why the market trend rose rapidly and rebounded in the deep V at the end of today's trading.

However, even if the short-term selling force has weakened.

However, the large number of main funds gathered in the core main line fields such as "big finance", "big infrastructure", "military industry", "film and television media" have not stabilized, and the chip structure of these hot main line fields such as "big finance", "big infrastructure", "military industry", "film and television media" is still in chaos.

Some people smashed the market and exited, and some people bought the bottom and intervened.

In general, the market is still in a stage of intense turnover and intense long-short divergence at this position.

The market really wants to usher in the end of adjustment and the reversal of the market trend.

In the future, it depends on the continuous change of volume.

If the market can form a rebound trend for a few days after the current increase in volume, and then continue to shrink and fall, until the volume shrinks back to the volume standard of 600 to 700 billion, the chips that should be sold in the market, the various unsteady profit-taking plates, unwinding plates, stop-loss plates... floating chips are almost out.

Then, the market will truly usher in the reversal opportunity of the end of adjustment.

At present, I think the market has only completed the first stage of adjustment, and the second and third stages of adjustment have not arrived.

Moreover, from a technical point of view.

The Shanghai Composite Index has only adjusted back to the vicinity of the 20-day line.

The number of profit-taking plates and the number of unwinding plates accumulated by the continuous squeeze in the front can be said to be extremely large.

At present, this adjustment range.

It is unlikely that such a large number of profit-taking chips will be completely cleared.

Whether in terms of time or space, the adjustment range is not enough.

Moreover, according to my observation, there is no sign of the "Yuhang system" buying heavily on the current market. The "Yuhang system" funds have a better understanding of the market and grasp of the market timing than the main capital institutions in the entire market.

This fund has no movement after the large-scale exit and profit-taking.

This shows from the side that this is unlikely to be the end of this round of market adjustment.

In addition, from the perspective of time and space, if this is the end of this round of market adjustment, then the main capital of the "Yuhang system" has no need to build a large-scale position near the 3,800 point position to stop profit, quickly reduce the position, and prevent extreme adjustments in the market.

After all, the adjustment range of two or three hundred points is within 10%.

For a large main capital institution like the "Yuhang system", it has little impact at all. "

"That's true. "Zhou Kan nodded and said, "There is really no movement in the funds of the 'Yuhang system' at present. This main fund is really strange... Since the news of the central bank's interest rate cut and reserve requirement ratio cut came out a few days ago, there is really no movement at all, but... we still have to look at the situation of the Dragon and Tiger List of the two cities to know clearly."

Speaking, Zhou Kan turned his eyes to the Dragon and Tiger List of the two cities.

On the Dragon and Tiger List of the two cities that was disclosed, there was indeed no trace of any trading seats related to the main fund institution of the 'Yuhang system'.

Moreover, it is in the dragon and tiger rankings of the two cities.

Institutional trading seats and total trading volume still show a net selling trend.

On the contrary, the participation of hot money is much more active than the previous two days.

But in general, based on the total turnover of hot money and institutions, the total trading volume on the dragon and tiger lists of the two cities is still showing a substantial net selling trend.

This shows that the rebound in late trading today and the selling of main funds have not significantly weakened.

It also shows that the overall chip structure in the core popular main line areas of the two cities has not been further concentrated. Of course... it also shows that the sustainability of such a rebound is obviously doubtful.

"Alas, there is still no movement of the 'Yu Hang Group', the main force, on the dragon and tiger lists of the two cities!" After the announcement of the dragon and tiger lists of the two cities, in the Shenzhen Stock Exchange, Pingyin Asset Management Trading Center, the main force Fund product manager Chen Shen sighed softly and said, "There are no signs of selling or buying. What is the current trading strategy and investment strategy of this major fund?"

The trend of the main funds of the ‘Yuhang Department’.

It will greatly affect the investment strategies and trading strategies of many major financial institutions in the entire market.

After all, there was the extreme impact on the market after the large-scale lightening and selling of the 'Yu Hang Series'. Before the main capital trend of the 'Yu Hang Series' was clear, many people in the market originally had the idea of ​​increasing their positions or buying the bottom. The main financial institutions did not dare to act rashly.

This has resulted in ‘big finance’, ‘big infrastructure’, ‘military industry’, ‘film and television media’… these are the main areas where the main funds of the previous ‘Yu Hang Department’ were heavily invested.

The main force's selling has been heavy and the market has been under pressure.

"I think the main funds of the 'Yu Hang Series' should still be in a wait-and-see attitude at present." Gao Yixiang, the trading team leader, said, "The market has dropped 200 points from its high level, and the main funds of the 'Yu Hang Series' are no longer available. If we continue to sell chips in large quantities, I think there is no need to worry about the extremely negative impact that the main funds of the 'Yu Hang Group' will have on the market."

"But waiting and watching... is also a kind of bearish behavior." Wang Jinglun, who is also the leader of the trading team, said, "We can't figure out the specific investment strategy and trading strategy motivation of the main funds of the 'Yu Hang Group'. We are in the specific I will always be quite passive when it comes to changes in trading strategies.”

Gao Yixiang pondered for a moment and said: "Isn't that the case? Looking at the market trend today, it is obvious...the market's main hot spots are showing signs of change, as long as we don't touch 'big finance', 'big infrastructure', 'Military Industry', 'Film and Television Media'... these are the main areas where the main funds of the 'Yu Hang Group' were previously heavily invested. In fact, there is no need to worry about the 'Yu Hang Group', the main force of funds, taking profits on a large scale and causing extreme losses to the market. The risk of the trend." (End of chapter)