Chapter 876 Patience Is the Most Important Skill in Trading!

Zhou Kan thought for a moment and responded: "Isn't the expectation of macroeconomic recovery a continuous long-term benefit for 'big consumption'? With the recovery of the economy and the increase in everyone's income, consumption upgrades should be expected, right? I feel that the entire 'big consumption' can cross the bull and bear markets, and it also follows this logic.

As for the two main lines of 'mobile Internet' and 'smartphone industry chain'.

Although the replacement of smartphones and the process of smartphones replacing feature phones have been basically completed, the penetration rate of smartphones has begun to decline gradually.

But the total market volume is growing, isn't this an expectation?

Also, as smartphones completely replace the feature phone market and as smartphones are fully popularized in the hands of all users.

The continued explosion of mobile Internet is also expected.

Of course, the expectations for these two aspects are like the boss What you said is a clear card. Many institutions in the industry and the vast investor group can expect this result.

And this is also the two core themes of "mobile Internet" and "smartphone industry chain".

The adjustment time is so long, the chip structure has not been consolidated, and there are many nail households in these two core areas.

In general, compared with the three core themes of "big finance", "big infrastructure", and "military industry".

Analyze from a macro and long-term perspective.

In fact, the three core themes of "big consumption", "mobile Internet", and "smartphone industry chain" are still not inferior.

It's just that the policy expectations may not be so strong.

After all, the "Eurasian Economic Belt", "New Era Road, Maritime Silk Road", "China-Japan-Korea Free Trade Zone Construction", "Shanghai Free Trade Zone", " New urbanization construction', 'reform and restructuring of central enterprises and state-owned enterprises', 'securitization of military assets'... these are all strong policy-driven and stimulating continuous benefits.

However, for now...

After a year of continuous capital speculation and continuous rise.

The three core themes of 'big finance', 'big infrastructure', and 'military industry' are currently clearly overdrawn expectations.

In this case, the theme of the market's 'high-low switching' is in line with it.

The three core themes of 'big consumption', 'mobile Internet', and 'smartphone industry chain', which also have long-term logical expectations, replace the market trends of the three core themes of 'big finance', 'big infrastructure', and 'military industry' with their low-position advantages and chip structure advantages.

Thereby completing the market's switch in the main trend.

I think it is also reasonable and there is no It's really surprising. "

After listening to Zhou Kan's analysis of the market, Xu Xiang smiled and said, "In addition to the advantage of the 'chip structure' you just mentioned, the three core lines of 'big consumption', 'mobile Internet', and 'smartphone industry chain' are obviously untenable compared to the advantages of the three core lines of 'big finance', 'big infrastructure', and 'military industry'.

First of all, let's talk about the macroeconomic recovery of the economy.

You must know that even if the economy recovers under the influence of strong policies, consumption is the last link.

First of all, the large-scale and large-scale recovery must be the related industry sectors in the core line of 'big infrastructure'. After all, the current macroeconomic strategy of our country is an economic development policy with 'real estate economy' as the core. Don't you see that the words about loosening the property market have been talked about for a long time?

Don't you see that steel, cement, and other building materials in the market are already at the end of de-capacity?

Is it already in the darkest moment before dawn?

Since consumption is the last link, and the priority recovery must be infrastructure and real estate, why should we abandon infrastructure and real estate and go for the so-called "big consumption" field?

Just because the main line of "big consumption" has risen well in the past few days?

As I said before, when we invest, we cannot let the short-term market trend and temporary disk performance affect our judgment of the underlying logic of the market.

We must have the spirit of "not fearing the clouds blocking our eyes" and must not be blinded by a leaf.

Let's talk about the main line of "big finance".

Similarly, is it a bull market now? Compared with the beginning of the year, has the market turnover soared five or six times? In the expected direction, do a number of financial stocks have the potential for short-term performance explosion? These expectations... should be clearer than the so-called "mobile Internet" and "smartphone industry chain", right?

In this case, why should we abandon the main line of "big finance" and pursue the two main lines of "mobile Internet" and "smartphone industry chain" where the expectations are not clear and it is difficult to exceed expectations in the case of clear cards? Of course... Among them, the "Internet Finance" sector is another.

This sector, as far as the current trend is concerned, follows the main line of "Big Finance".

It has basically nothing to do with the so-called "Mobile Internet" concept theme.

As for the main line of "Military Industry", you have already said the underlying logic just now. The long-term increase of "National Defense Spending" in the future is basically certain, and "Securitization of Military Industry Assets" is also a set tone. With these two long-term expectations, it is basically foreseeable that "Military Industry" will have a long bull market lasting two to three years.

Overall, there are three core main lines: "Big Finance", "Big Infrastructure" and "Military Industry".

In terms of the underlying logic, in the logic of mid- to long-term expectations, in terms of policy expectations, and in terms of the continued policy outpouring and stimulus intensity, there is no problem.

The reason why these three core main lines are currently weakening is that they are in continuous adjustment.

The only reason is that it rose too fast and too sharply in the early stage, accumulating too many short- and medium-term profit orders, which led to instability in the chip structure.

in other words……

At present, the three core main lines of 'big consumption', 'mobile Internet' and 'smartphone industry chain' are compared with the three core main lines of 'big finance', 'big infrastructure' and 'military industry'. The only advantage is the chip structure. On the contrary, compared with the three core main lines of 'big finance', 'big infrastructure' and 'military industry', compared with the three core main lines of 'big consumption', 'mobile Internet' and 'smartphone industry chain', the only The only disadvantage is that the chip structure is chaotic.

Let’s look at the expected logic of the three core main lines of ‘big consumption’, ‘mobile Internet’ and ‘smartphone industry chain’ you just mentioned.

‘Big consumption’ areas, such as the home appliance sector.

It is a typical real estate-related sector. If the real estate market is strong, the home appliance sector will be strong. If the real estate market is down, the home appliance sector will also be quite sluggish.

Retail, automobile, food, beverage and other consumer sectors.

In addition to daily necessities, we can only wait for the so-called "consumption upgrade" to improve the fundamentals of the industry.

Especially the automobile industry sector, in the absence of new technological innovations, can only wait for consumption upgrades. But when can consumption be upgraded? No one knows.

So the future expectations of the entire ‘big consumption’ field.

It seems very clear, but after careful analysis, it is not as beautiful as it seems.

As for the two core main lines of ‘mobile Internet’ and ‘smartphone industry chain’.

It is true that the market size of "mobile Internet" is expanding rapidly, and the number of mobile Internet users is growing explosively, but what about the performance of related industry sectors?

How Internet companies monetize traffic has always been a huge problem.

In the mobile Internet era, does this problem no longer exist?

What's more, how many Internet companies listed on domestic A-shares have high corporate moats and core corporate competitiveness?

Basically no?

In this case, with almost clear expectations, where does the difference in expectations come from and where does the room for excess profit investment come from?

As for the 'smartphone industry chain' line, currently, the only one with relatively clear expectations is the 'Apple industry chain' line. There is currently no hope for other sectors such as electronic information and semiconductors. There is no expectation that the performance will continue to explode.

But just rely on the branch line of ‘Apple industry chain’.

Can it support the main trend of the entire "smartphone industry chain"? I don't think it's possible? "

In fact, we have to say that the small and mid-cap and GEM markets are pointing in the direction, that is, in the direction of small and mid-cap growth stocks. It is currently expected to be a relatively clear industry sector and thematic investment direction.

I think the line of 'film and television media' is obviously stronger than the so-called core lines of 'big consumption', 'smartphone industry chain', and 'mobile Internet'.

After all, with the increase in the number of large screens in the country, as well as box office subsidies and the country's continued policy support in the field of 'film and television', this industry, which can be described as a wild market, clearly has the potential to explode. According to the box office trends of movies in each quarter of this year .

It can be seen that the entire domestic film market has indeed fully recovered.

It's just that the industry sector of 'film and television media' is too small to carry large funds. Naturally, it cannot support the entire market and can only follow the trend. "

"The film and television media sector has indeed been very strong recently." Zhou Kan said, "In this sector, when the core main lines such as 'big finance', 'big infrastructure' and 'military industry' were rising before, they also followed the rise. Now the market The direction of short-term speculation has shifted to the main lines of 'big consumption', 'mobile Internet' and 'smartphone industry chain', and the 'film and television media' sector has actually followed suit.

This is a bit of an independent trend.

In fact, in the first half of the year, the wave in June was when the "film and television media" concentrated on releasing good news.

Many institutions in the industry have invested heavily in building positions in this sector. From a long-term investment perspective, this is correct.

In fact, in the entire 'film and television media' sector, the trends and gains of a number of core stocks during the year are not inferior to those of related core stocks and stocks in the main areas of 'big finance', 'big infrastructure' and 'military industry'. Popular stocks, even stocks like Huayi Brothers and Huace Film and Television, have increased more than three times.

But, this section.

It does have flaws, as you said, boss.

That is, the market value of the sector is too small and the circulation is limited. It cannot carry core main funds like the "Yu Hang Series", nor can it drive the rise of the entire market. It can only form a small-scale profit-making effect.

Just like at this moment, the market of the ‘Film and Television Media’ sector has exploded.

However, the money-making effect of core industry sectors related to the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index, Shenzhen Stock Exchange Index, and ChiNext Index has still not been driven.

However, it is not suitable for the main capital layout like the ‘Yu Hang Series’.

For funds of our size, it is quite suitable.

I think since the logic of the "film and television media" line is clear and the future expectations are strong, the fundamentals of the entire industry are undergoing a comprehensive transformation, and the short-term performance of related listed companies also has strong explosive power.

So, we should make appropriate layouts in this direction and increase some positions. I think it is more appropriate. "

Xu Xiang pondered for a moment and responded with a smile: "I think it is okay to increase the chips of the "film and television media" line and increase the weight of the "film and television media" line in our fund holdings. You can try it. However, I think we should be cautious about the layout of the three core main lines of "big consumption", "mobile Internet" and "smartphone industry chain".

As long as the market opens as usual.

In fact, there is always an opportunity to buy chips.

Let's take a look at it again when we are uncertain about the future market development.

In the bull market, there is actually no problem with allowing a 10% or 20% space tolerance rate. Whether it is a left-side layout or a right-side layout, it is also appropriate and in time. "

"Okay! "After listening to Xu Xiang's analysis of the market, Zhou Kan actually understood the underlying logic problem that Xu Xiang mentioned. He was no longer so obsessed with the so-called market main line switching and the layout in the main line fields such as "big consumption", "smart phone industry chain", and "mobile Internet". He smiled and responded, "Then let's try to buy some chips in the field of "film and television media". Regarding the layout of other main line fields, we still maintain the previous strategy plan and keep the strategy of watching more and moving less. "

Xu Xiang nodded with a smile and said, "That's right, just follow what you said just now. When there is no clear position adjustment by the main capital of the "Yuhang system", and there is no obvious sign of shrinking volume and the end of adjustment in the market, we should maintain a relatively low position, watch more and move less, and wait for the market to change.

Patience is the most important skill in trading.

We trade in the financial market and want to obtain sufficient profits through the financial market.

Then you must learn to be like a hunter, holding a hunting rifle in the ice and snow, waiting for a long time without moving, waiting for the prey to gradually appear in the range of the hunting rifle. You can neither leave without patience, nor shoot randomly before the prey reaches the range and scare away the prey. "

"Okay!" Zhou Kan nodded again.

Then, according to the strategy plan discussed by the two of them just now, he issued relevant trading instructions to the traders behind him.

Then, when the instructions were issued.

Zhou Kan turned his eyes back to the trading disk of the two cities.

It was seen that the trading time of the two cities at this time had entered about 10:50, and the Shanghai Index, Shenzhen Index, and ChiNext Index, under the continuous rebound trend, have all exceeded 1% of the increase, showing a rare general situation. (End of this chapter)