Chapter 708 Is the Expected Good News Still Good News?
"Next Monday?" Zhou Kan was stunned. "Isn't next Monday going to be good for the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect? And today is Friday, after today's market closes, and during the weekend, there may be other good news.
Didn't I remember what the boss said before?
During the 'bull market' phase, time is often on the side of the long investors in the market.
As long as the market's risk appetite for investment and speculation is increasing, as long as the market's money-making effect is still at a hot and strong stage, and OTC capital groups are still pouring into the market.
So, even during the suspension period, there is no obvious good news in the market news.
As investors' desires and emotions brought about by the money-making effect of the market itself, the overall emotional response of the market should also continue to change in the long direction.
According to this logic of thinking...
As long as today's market conditions are not bad, the entire market can maintain a relatively good continuous profit-making effect.
So, the market performance next Monday should not be bad. Why... the boss actually said that there is a high probability that today's market conditions will not be bad, but should we really worry about next Monday? "
Xu Xiang's eyes were bright as he stared at the market of the two cities. Hearing Zhou Kan's question, he smiled and said: "I said this before, but the specific situation still needs to be analyzed in detail. Everyone knows that next Monday, November 17th is the day when the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect is launched, and it is also the day when A50 Index Futures and China Securities 500 Index Futures are officially listed for trading. So...according to the logic of market reaction to expectations, everyone knows the expectations. It’s good, is that still good?”
Hearing Xu Xiang's words, Zhou Kan suddenly had a flash of inspiration in his mind, understood, and responded: "Since it is a benefit that everyone knows, then once this benefit really comes to fruition, it will become 'all the benefits come out'" It’s bad.”
"Yes!" Xu Xiang nodded, "Whether it is the main line market, concept market, or individual stock market performance, what is speculated is always expectations, not the fulfillment of expectations. When the expectations are fulfilled, it means that the stock price often drops. It’s over, it’s time to take profit.
Therefore, the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index has been short-selling and rising continuously in the past two days.
Moreover, the overall volume performance and the performance of the two financing balances are getting stronger and stronger.
Obviously, this is the overdraft of these major positive expectations on Monday, and the expected positive benefits have been exhausted in advance.
Under such a trend, once these major expected benefits come to fruition, the market will not have the support of subsequent positive expectations, and the upward pressure it will face will quickly increase.
That's why I said that the market situation next Monday may not be optimistic.
Of course, before that.
Before the positive expectations are realized, whether it is the group of funds buying the bottom on Tuesday or the group of funds that have followed up in the past two days and are rushing to take advantage of the positive expectations of the launch of the "Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect" next Monday, there is a high probability that they will not reduce their positions and take profits in advance. Yes, after all, under sufficient 'bull market' expectations, before the good news materializes, the new investor groups rushing in for the good news, as well as incremental funds, can still continue to drive the market and promote the core mainline market.
With these strong incremental capital groups following the trend, it will be beneficial to the market before the launch, and will not be so easily hit by profit taking. "
"It seems that today is only suitable for holding and reducing positions, not increasing positions." Zhou Kan said, "According to the logic of the boss's analysis... Do we need to reduce some positions and withdraw some profits at today's intraday high? What about the short-term chips that were bought at the bottom in the past two days and the profit-taking part?”
"Yes, yes." Xu Xiang said, "Let's see how the intraday trends of popular core concept stocks are after the official opening. If there is obvious stagflation or there is a big difference between long and short on the market, you can try to sell some chips and wait until After the subsequent corresponding stock price retracement, the chips will be taken back.
However, for small position trading, just do T.
Our two main funds, which focus on holding core weight stock chips in the securities and Internet finance sectors, should not move them.
Although I judge that the market situation on Monday is not optimistic.
There is a high probability that there will be a market trend in which "all good things turn out to be bad things".
However, in terms of medium and long-term thinking, the "bull market" pattern and "bull market" logic of the entire market are still continuing to ferment in depth.
That is, the mid- to long-term trend of the market is still firmly upward.
In this way, we must remain firm in our mid- to long-term position thinking. We cannot rush out of positions on a large scale just because we are greedy for short-term profits, and lose the core chips with great cost advantages. "
"Okay!" Zhou Kan nodded and said, "Don't worry, boss, I understand this!"
In terms of position strategies and trading strategies, he still knows very well which positions should be moved and which positions should not be moved.
And with the brief communication and analysis between the two.
At this time, the market's trading time has reached 9:25, and the collective bidding in the two cities has officially ended.
I saw a full ten minutes of collective bidding.
Compared with the market situation that was finally presented to the investors inside and outside the market at 9:15, it was obviously still a lot lower.
Take a closer look...
The Shanghai Stock Index opened higher by 0.51% and settled at 3341.14 points.
The Shenzhen Index and the ChiNext Index opened higher by 0.46% and 0.41% respectively, while the SME Index, which rose nearly 4% yesterday, only opened higher by 0.35%. On the contrary, the A50 Index, which performed weaker than several major core indexes yesterday, opened higher at 0.61% at this moment, which was much stronger than the Shanghai Index.
In addition to the several major indexes that opened higher.
In terms of the performance of the core main lines of the market, popular industry sectors, and popular concept sectors.
Only the main line industry sectors and concept sectors that performed strongly yesterday, such as "securities, Internet finance, military industry, film and television media, new stocks, Shanghai Free Trade Zone, and reform and reorganization of central enterprises and state-owned enterprises", still led the two markets in the opening performance, and carried the main active capital groups in the market during the call auction stage.
Among them, the core hot stocks and concept leading stocks in these main line fields performed well.
I saw that ‘Huake Shuguang’, the most popular stock in the two markets, still maintained the opening trend of a one-character board limit, and in the entire call auction stage, only more than 1 million funds were traded, and it was still in the form of unlimited limit, and there was no sign of breaking the board at all.
This shows the internal holding group of this check.
That is, the lucky investors who won the lottery are still in a state of obvious reluctance to sell the chips of this check.
Of course, everyone is so reluctant to sell, causing this stock to go out of the unexpected 16 one-character limit boards in a row, and the institutions that continue to grab chips in the limit boards must have made an indispensable contribution.
In addition to ‘Huake Shuguang’, the second most popular check in the market is ‘Tonghuashun’.
The opening increase was fixed at 4.11%. Compared with the high opening and limit-up at 9:15, it must have fallen significantly. However, compared with the general expectations of investors who paid attention to this check before the market, this check can continue to open more than 4 points higher, which is also beyond everyone's expectations.
And this check opened 4 points higher.
Compared with yesterday, the trading volume of the entire call auction stage did not show any obvious signs of enlargement.
This shows that the holders of this check are still relatively reluctant to sell the stock chips of this check at this position. Even if they make a big profit, not many people will reduce their positions in large quantities to stop profits.
The third most popular in the market is the check of "Chengfei Integration".
This check has gone through the trend of falling limit and turning red for two consecutive days. Now, at this moment, it opened slightly lower at 1.23%.
Although according to this opening pattern.
This check has basically escaped the fate of continuous limit-down.
However, the internal selling pressure has not been reduced, and this continued performance that is weaker than the market also shows that this check is still not falling through near this position. If the market is slightly weak in the future, it should not be ruled out that this check will continue to fall sharply.
The fourth most popular check in the market is the check of "Western Securities" in the securities sector.
Yesterday, "Western Securities" had a daily limit of 13 points. Today, with the "remaining power" of yesterday's limit, it also opened sharply higher. Its stock price was fixed at a 2.56% increase, still in the opening form, leading a number of securities stocks.
And this check is in the entire call auction trend.
The overall market turnover, compared with yesterday and even the day before, still has no obvious signs of enlargement.
This shows that the expectations and expectations of the investors who intervened in this stock yesterday, and even intervened in this stock in the early stage, and currently hold this stock, for this check, are not limited to this, so the volume has not been further enlarged, and the same reluctance to sell situation has occurred.
The fifth hottest stock in the market is the stock ‘Lanshi Heavy Equipment’ which hit 23 consecutive daily limit increases in the previous period.
This stock also opened high today.
Compared with the stocks ‘Huake Shuguang, Tonghuashun, and Western Securities’, the high opening of ‘Lanshi Heavy Equipment’ is slightly not good enough, with only a 1.12% increase. In the entire call auction performance, the selling pressure on the market was relatively large, and the divergence between long and short positions was obviously more obvious than the other three popular leading stocks.
The sixth hottest stock in the market is ‘Shanghai Sanmao’, a core stock of the concept of ‘Shanghai Free Trade Zone’, which has hit three consecutive daily limit increases.
After achieving three consecutive daily limit increases, this stock still performed very strongly at the opening today.
It opened significantly higher at 6.11%.
However, although this check opened higher, the trading volume during the entire call auction stage was also relatively large. With a circulating volume of less than 2.5 billion, more than 70 million funds were traded in 10 minutes of the call auction alone. This shows that at this stock price position, the divergence between long and short positions on the market has rapidly expanded.
It also shows that if this check wants to close the board today, the pressure should be very large.
Either the divergence turns to consensus, or it is directly killed by short-term profit-taking.
The seventh most popular stock in the market is the check of "China Airlines Heavy Machinery" in the "military industry" sector.
This check also went through three consecutive daily limits in the previous three trading days, but the increase in the opening price of this check today was obviously not as good as the check of "Shanghai Sanmao", which only opened 3.47% higher, and the trading volume during the entire call auction stage also showed signs of expansion.
This shows that there are a large number of short-term funds in the active fund group in the market.
The logical recognition and follow-up strength of this check are not as good as the check of "Shanghai Sanmao".
The three stocks ranked eighth, ninth, and tenth in the market are Huajin Capital, Oriental Fortune, and Hengsheng Electronics respectively.
The trading volume of these three stocks all exceeds tens of billions, and due to the suppression of large trading volume, despite the high market popularity, the high opening range is still significantly weaker than other popular stocks.
‘Hua Investment Capital’ opened higher at 1.06%, slightly exceeding the higher opening range of the securities sector index.
'Oriental Fortune' opened higher at 0.96%, and the trend of 'Flush' has once again widened the gap with similar stocks. However, the gap in market value between the two stocks is still close to double.
'Hengsheng Electronics' opened higher at 0.83%, slightly stronger than the Shanghai Index. The long-short differences on the market are more obvious. At the same time, the stock price elasticity and selling pressure are also more obvious compared to other popular stocks. Overall, The movement of this check is not as smooth as other popular stocks.
In addition to these ten popular stocks that have attracted much attention from market investor groups.
Other stocks that rank relatively low in popularity, such as China Railway, Huaguo Railway Construction, Shanghai Steel Union, Shanghai Construction Engineering, Huaxin Securities, Jinzheng Shares, Ciwen Media, LeTV, Huayi Brothers, Huace Film and Television, Yinjie Technology, Huaguo Software, Inspur Information, Internet Speed Technology, Leiman Optoelectronics...' and other popular stocks.
As far as the opening pattern is concerned, 90% also achieved high openings.
However, the range of higher openings was below the 1.5% increase, and there was no obvious gap.
"The Shanghai Stock Exchange Index has opened at a new high for the year, but how do I feel that the support of this tiny gap is not so solid?" At 9:26, inside Yuhang, Yuhang Investment Company, the main fund trading room, fund trading Team leader Wang Can stared at the frozen market of the two markets for a moment, briefly sorted out the opening market patterns of each main line, couldn't help but sigh, and asked Zhao Lijun next to him, "Old Zhao, do you feel this way? ? I always feel that... in this form, after the market officially opens, the index will have to go back down! "
Zhao Lijun glanced at him sideways and responded with a smile: "The market has not opened much higher. It is possible to step back to cover this tiny gap. If you kill the market... it should be impossible. After all, it happened yesterday." After a wave of killing, a lot of profit orders were washed away. Although the market surged yesterday, the accumulated profit order chips were not many, and it should not be able to exert too much pressure on the overall market situation.
Also...
There are good things to come from the opening of the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect next Monday, as well as the official listing and trading of A50 Index and China Securities 500 Index futures, as well as the possible good market macro news over the weekend. At this time point today, The market has no motivation to sell down at all.
There are a lot of funds holding positions on the market, as well as a group of investors who came in yesterday.
Before so many positive expectations come true, there is a high probability that there will be no concentrated selling easily.
Therefore, I think there is no need to worry too much. Your so-called feeling... I am not saying that, it is a bit redundant if it is true. Don’t forget, the market is a ‘bull market’!
Since it is a 'bull market', it is supported by relatively clear expected positives.
Short funds cannot make any big waves. "