Chapter 724 What Supports the Rise in Stock Prices Is Expectations, Not the Fulfillment of Expectations!

"Today, the 'Southern System' funds bought a lot!"

After seeing the data of the Dragon and Tiger List of the two cities, in the main fund trading room of Xinniu Fund Company in Shenzhen Stock Exchange, Mou Zhengxing, the fund manager of 'Manniu No. 2', said with emotion: "Moreover, the direction of the large increase in the positions of the 'Southern System' funds is basically all on the main line of 'big finance'.

On the other hand, the domestic institutional groups are indeed a bit smart in their operations today.

Many institutions sold the chips of the 'big finance' main line to stop profit, and then increased their positions in the low-level main lines of 'big consumption, non-ferrous cycle, petrochemical, coal, pharmaceutical business...'!

However, although judging from the closing results...

The core main line hot spots of the market eventually returned to the core main lines of 'big finance, big infrastructure, military industry, and technological growth', but these major The trend of many popular core stocks in the core main line area is still not so satisfactory, and the market divergence is also not small.

In addition, the trend of "new stocks", the main line that the short-term capital group in the market has recently concentrated on, is obviously not as expected today.

And the trend of other concepts related to the line of "new stocks" is also not satisfactory.

In general, although the market has closed with a positive trend, the momentum and strength of the obvious rise are not as strong as in the previous few trading days, and the divergence between long and short positions is increasing.

In this form...

I think, even if this is not a short-term callback node, it is estimated that it is not far from the callback node, right? "

After Mou Zhengxing finished speaking, his eyes quickly turned to Fang Xinsheng, the company's asset management business manager and the product manager of the "Manniu No. 1" fund.

Fang Xinsheng noticed his gaze, nodded with a smile, and said: "Today, the domestic institutional groups that abandoned the main line of 'big finance' and cut into the low-level main line chips are indeed a bit smart, but from the market trend reaction, many domestic institutional groups are indeed short-sighted in their understanding of the market situation and the judgment of the market situation, and have no medium- and long-term thinking at all.

But if you say that this is very close to the medium- and short-term adjustment node...

Fang Xinsheng paused and continued with a smile: "I don't think so."

"Mr. Fang doesn't think so?" Mou Zhengxing was a little surprised and said in surprise, "According to the expected analysis, the medium- and short-term benefits that everyone expected before have landed today. There is no clear medium- and short-term support in the future, and it only depends on the emotional interpretation of the bull market expectations.

It is still difficult for the 'big finance' line to get out of the sharp upward trend of more than half a month, right?

What's more, the 'big finance' line has actually risen so much that it can be regarded as having fulfilled part of the expectations.

In this way, the accumulated profit-taking will continue to sell and reduce the chips in the main direction of the 'big finance' line after the good news has landed.

Most of them will continue to sell and reduce their positions in the main direction of the chips, just like many institutional groups that have taken profit and stopped profit on the 'big finance' line today.

And the motivation for buying...

Today, after the 'big finance' rose and fell in the early trading, it was able to continue to reverse and recover the lost ground in the afternoon near the end of the trading.

I think it mainly benefits from the fact that today is the first day of the opening of the 'Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect'.

In the absence of a direct channel for 'Southern Series' funds to participate in A-share investment in the past, seeing the continuous short squeeze in our A-share market, they have long been depressed, so today they entered the market on a large scale regardless of everything, and a more extreme buying situation has occurred.

In other words...

This is the result of the continuous accumulation of bullish sentiment for more than half a month.

It is also because of the new incremental funds of the ‘Southern Group’ that, under today’s extreme buying that exceeded expectations, it took over the selling orders during the trading session and pulled the two markets back in the late trading stage.

If there were no extreme buying by the ‘Southern Group’ funds group today, and no extreme incremental funds group brought by the opening of the ‘Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect’.

Then, today’s actual market trend should be a clear rise and fall.

Moreover, this pent-up bullish sentiment.

Once it finds a way to vent, it will be vented.

Then, it is foreseeable that this bullish sentiment will gradually decline with the passage of time.

Furthermore, the total amount of funds that the ‘Southern Group’ funds group is extremely interested in the A-share market should be a certain amount.

Today is the first day of the opening of the ‘Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect’.

Only then will the ‘Southern Group’ funds pour in so rapidly.

Later, as the ‘Southern Group’ funds group’s positions in A-shares increase, their new purchases will obviously decrease.

In this way, this new main group of funds entering the market will have an impact on the market conditions of the two markets.

As for the trend development of the two markets, it will be significantly discounted, and naturally it will not be possible to withstand the concentrated profit-taking as strongly as today.

So I said...

The current market situation in the short term should be difficult to continue to break through on a large scale! "

Fang Xinsheng looked at Mou Zhengxing with a smile and said, "Zhengxing, do you think that with the current liquidity of our A-shares and the turnover of the two markets, the amount of funds from the "Southern System" can support the entire market? Can it affect the big trend?

The market with a turnover of 800 billion, the volume of funds from the "Southern System" pouring in.

Even if today is the first day, the purchase is more active, it will not account for 2%.

Can this amount of funds affect the entire market? No! The fundamental reason why the market can take such a shape today is that it is formed by the concerted efforts of the market.

Just take the disclosed Dragon and Tiger List of the two cities as an example.

Take the stocks listed in the "Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect" seat, do other domestic funds buy more, or do the funds in the "Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect" seat buy more?

It can only be said that this batch of "Southern Series" funds poured in through the "Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect" channel.

Its market sense is keen, and it is a relatively smart core main fund in the market, but it is not the main fund that truly leads the market.

At present, in terms of the volume that this fund can enter the A-share market.

They are also unable to lead the market and change the market trend of the market.

Today, the core themes of "big finance, big infrastructure, military industry, and technological growth" can fully rebound after the morning surge and fall, and recover the losses in the afternoon near the end of the trading session, once again showing a comprehensive rise of "the strong will always be strong".

The fundamental reason is the continuous money-making effect of these core themes.

And it is determined by the certainty of its future expectations.

Rather than other reasons, it has nothing to do with the group of funds that came in through the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect.

On the other hand, the low-level themes of "big consumption, non-ferrous metal cycle, petrochemicals, coal, pharmaceutical commerce...".

The reason why it once surged sharply during the session, but eventually fell back helplessly, forming an obvious intraday surge and fall trend, failed to gather its continuous money-making effect.

The most fundamental reason...

is still the industries related to these low-level themes, as well as the theme themes.

There are currently no clear signs of expected reversal, and some favorable expectations that can be expected and expected in the future.

When there is a very large expectation gap between the core main lines of the market such as ‘big finance, big infrastructure, military industry, and technological growth’ and the low-level main lines such as ‘big consumption, non-ferrous cycle, petrochemicals, coal, and pharmaceutical business…’, whether in terms of foreseeable future certainty benefits, perceptible fundamental changes, and the most significant future expectations, the valuation gap between the two has not widened to fill all the expectation gaps.

No matter how the relevant weighted stocks and industry leading stocks in the core main line areas of ‘big finance, big infrastructure, military industry, and technological growth’ rise in the short term.

What height has the short-term increase reached.

Then, in terms of investment logic and investment cost-effectiveness, they still exceed the corresponding weighted stocks and industry leading stocks of the low-level main lines such as ‘big consumption, non-ferrous cycle, petrochemicals, coal, and pharmaceutical business…’.

Since the investment logic and investment cost-effectiveness of the two are still very clear.

Then, the market’s broad investor groups, especially the smart investor groups, are very obvious in investment choices and buying choices.

This is why many funds failed to guide the market to do "high-low switching" today.

It is also the reason why the "big finance" line can be strong and strong, continue to set new highs, and continuously break everyone's expectations of the market.

So, it is obvious...

Even though the technical trend of the "big finance" line, especially the securities sector and the Internet finance sector, has obviously deviated, its upward trend and the continuous money-making effect it has shown, while the market turnover remains at an extremely high level and is still rising.

It has never been adjusted or ended.

And...

You just mentioned the issue of the short-term and medium-term benefits of the main line of "big finance".

Zhengxing, do you think that in the past half month, the main fund groups on and off the market have been extremely increasing their positions on a large scale, chasing the core main line of "big finance", and scrambling for the chips of the weighted core stocks and industry leading stocks of the securities and Internet finance sectors, because of the three major benefits of the opening of the "Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect", "Huazheng 500 Index Futures", and "A50 Index Futures" today? "

Seeing Fang Xinsheng asking questions, Mou Zhengxing smiled and replied: "Of course, it's not just that. The main long-term investment logic and the underlying logic are still expected to be bullish, or to form a comprehensive bull market, which will bring about a two-way growth in market turnover and margin balance, and then drive the performance growth of securities companies, banks, and insurance companies."

"More than that." Fang Xinsheng said, "The market supports the line of 'big finance', and the biggest potential expected positive that has soared so fast has not been implemented at all. Not only has it not been implemented, but it is also in the process of becoming increasingly clear from the hazy period. In other words, up to now... this biggest potential positive expectation has just begun to ferment rapidly inside and outside the market and has a profound impact on the market's next market situation. "

"What does Mr. Fang mean..." Mou Zhengxing was a little confused.

Fang Xinsheng said: "The biggest potential positive expectation of the main line of 'big finance', which is changing from the hazy period to the clear period, is the central bank's monetary policy shift.

As long as this expected positive can be clear.

Then, the macro-funding side will have a great loosening.

This will not bring 100 billion or 200 billion incremental funds to the market, but most likely trillions of incremental funds.

This incremental fund group is compared with what the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect has brought.

It is like the gap between a river and a small pond.

The reason why the line of ‘big finance’ is so strong and aggressive is that everyone’s expectations for a full bull market in the market are becoming more and more firm.

The fundamental reason is that in the current market.

There are already many institutional groups and major capital groups.

It is expected that in the short and medium term, the central bank will make a decision to shift its monetary policy, and it is likely to loosen the money supply and make unexpected interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio cuts.

This is the most important expectation and speculation logic that supports the continued bull market.

It is also the fundamental reason why the market's main board weight blue chip stocks and leading stocks in various industries are far stronger than small and medium-sized concept stocks in the past half month and even in the second half of the year.

So, analyze from this logical line.

Not only can we not say that the favorable expectations supporting the market's hot core lines of ‘big finance, big infrastructure, military industry, and technological growth’ have been implemented, but it can be said that the favorable expectations are in the process of extreme fermentation, and its strong upward trend is far from the time when expectations are fulfilled and adjusted and reversed.

Many fund groups that have not seriously analyzed the market and have not seriously sorted out the market news.

At this time.

They think that by taking advantage of the implementation of the relevant benefits of "Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect", "Huazheng 500 Index Futures", and "A50 Index Futures", they can do the main line market rotation of "high-low switching", seize the opportunity of the main line market switching, eat the excess profits at both ends, and harvest the "Southern System" funds that flow in through the "Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect" channel in a timely manner.

In fact, it is just a stupid practice of being smart and not recognizing the essential changes and trends of the market.

But...

Such a false rotation.

Let the profit-making fund groups that were not firm in holding stocks in the main line of "big finance" to stop profit and reduce positions on a large scale, and at the same time take advantage of the trend of a number of low-level main lines rushing up and falling to trap a wave, but it will also help the main line of "big finance" in the future market to continue to break upward.

At the same time, it will also help the development of the future market.

Inside and outside the market, the active main capital groups are further gathering towards the core mainline areas such as "big finance, big infrastructure, military industry, and technological growth".

In general, today's market trend of the two cities.

Although the process was a bit unexpected, the result... was still slightly beyond expectations. "

"The central bank's interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio cuts..." After listening to Fang Xinsheng's series of in-depth analysis of the two markets, Mou Zhengxing finally understood and said, "Can this expectation be realized in the short and medium term, or before the end of the year? "

Fang Xinsheng smiled and said: "I don't know, but as long as the market has this expectation, and the expectation is becoming clearer and clearer, and everyone's expectations are becoming more and more consistent, isn't it enough? You know, what supports the rise in stock prices is the increasingly strong expectations, not the realization of the final expectations. As long as there is an expectation and everyone agrees with the logic of this expectation, it doesn't matter whether it can be realized in the end." (End of this chapter)