Chapter 743 3500 Points Are Just Around the Corner!
"Continue to open high by inertia?"
At 9:16, in Shanghai, inside Yinghui Fund Company, in the 'Yinghui No. 1' fund product trading room, trading team leader Yu Lei squinted and stared at the two markets that had already shown a comprehensive high opening pattern, and was slightly surprised: "It feels that the external market trend has some impact on the A-share market!"
Sitting next to Yu Lei, 'Yinghui No. 1' fund manager Liu Guanhai laughed and said: "Under the extreme bullish sentiment, isn't this normal?"
"Continue to open high and attack... I always feel that it's a bit inappropriate!" Yu Lei had a slightly bad feeling in his heart, "The Shanghai Composite Index has been up for 7 consecutive days, and the short-term accumulated profit chips are extremely rich. In addition to the recent unwinding chips, even if the financing balance of the two markets is still soaring, Cheng The turnover is still rising, and the incremental funds pouring into the market from the outside are still expanding.
However, it is impossible to fully resolve the accumulated profit-taking and unwinding orders in the upward trend!
If the market does not have enough favorable factors to continue to cooperate.
Once the accumulated profit-taking and unwinding orders are concentrated, the incremental funds group may still be unable to take over in an instant, and if they cannot take over, the Shanghai Composite Index should turn around.
It has been 7 consecutive positive days, and it continues to open high and attack hard. Instead, I feel a little uneasy. "
"In the daily trend, the degree of deviation is indeed getting more and more exaggerated." Liu Guanhai responded, "But there is still no problem with the trend on the weekly and monthly charts."
"I really can't help wanting to reduce my position." Yu Lei sighed, "I think the 3,500-point barrier of the Shanghai Composite Index , I am afraid it is not so easy to break through. After all, the range of 3000 points to 3500 points should be the area with the heaviest historical locked-in positions. It is unlikely to cross it directly without a shock. Although the bull market pattern of the market has become clearer and more certain, I always feel that the majority of investors in the market at this moment are still too optimistic in their market expectations. "
Liu Guanhai pondered for a moment and said: "We can't follow our feelings. We still have to respect the actual market trends and changes. Let's take a look. I don't think it's so easy to stand firm at 3500 points, but it's reasonable for the market to continue to force a breakthrough.
After all, under the influence of the continuous extreme money-making effect.
The investment confidence of the entire market, compared with the previous two In the month, it should have been completely reversed.
After the overall reversal of investment confidence, the incremental capital group brought about, as well as the market main line chasing triggered by it, you should have seen it recently, it is really extremely hot.
Moreover, the turnover of the two markets has approached the 900 billion mark.
900 billion!
The market trading volume at this level is quite sufficient, and it can fully support the Shanghai Composite Index to continue to break upward. At least at this point stage, this volume can fully support the index.
In addition, although the market has risen too much in the short term, the technical side has deviated too much.
However, the continued positive market news and emotional development still support the market to continue to rise. Isn’t the news about the central bank’s interest rate cut and reserve requirement cut next month still fermenting?
This news has a much greater stimulating effect on the market than the previous "Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect" and the opening of stock index futures.
At the same time, although the trend of the peripheral market last night was a bit cloudy.
But in the long run, it has always been a bull market pattern.
This stimulus to the A-share market should still be mainly benign.
Of course, the short-term rapid accumulation of profit-taking and unwinding is indeed a problem. The seven consecutive positive trends of the Shanghai Composite Index, especially the continuous positive trends of continuous breakthroughs and surges, are indeed rare. Even if there is a short-term adjustment in the future, or a short-term extreme adjustment like last Monday, it should be normal.
Isn't there a saying that "bear markets have more long positives and bull markets have more sharp declines"?
In short, no matter how the market goes, we respect the market trend. As long as the overall bull market pattern does not change, and the index and the core stocks with higher holdings of our funds are still running on the upward trend line, then I think we should calm down and hold positions calmly.
Investing is inherently anti-human.
The more you can't help wanting to reduce your positions and sell, the more patience you should have.
Even if we judge that there is a demand and possibility for a sharp drop in the market in a short period of time, my suggestion is... We should still hold positions calmly and wait and see, watch more and do less.
After all, no one can accurately predict the short-term trend of the market.
If we reduce our positions and stop profits at short-term highs, even if we make a correct judgment for a while and avoid a sharp drop in the market, how can we judge whether the market has stabilized and buy back the chips at a relatively appropriate time? If we make a wrong judgment, then in the overall pattern of the bull market, there is a high probability that we will completely lose the chips.
This is obviously not worth the loss for us. ”
Yu Lei heard what Liu Guanhai said and nodded slightly. He still agreed with it. After a pause, he continued: "Mr. Liu is right. It seems that my mentality still needs to be tempered. Indeed, you can't be greedy in a bear market, but you have to hold on to the green mountains and not relax in a bull market. "
"However, looking at this high opening pattern, it does seem a bit short-term and at the end of the battle." Liu Guanhai kept staring at the rapidly changing call auction markets of the two cities, his eyes flickered, and said, "'Big Finance' and 'Big Infrastructure' For the two core main lines of the market, under the high opening situation, the market pressure is increasing with the times. At the same time, yesterday's 'Film and Television Media', 'Technology Growth', 'Mobile Internet', and 'Smartphone Industry Chain', which had a certain profit-making effect The main lines of 'Big Consumption' and 'Big Consumption' have not fully supported the market, taking over the market trend of the 'Big Finance' and 'Big Infrastructure' main lines. Under the high opening situation, the market pressure is also increasing sharply with the times. This is not a good sign. ah!"
Following a brief exchange between the two.
The market trading time has reached 9:18.
After just three minutes of initial collective bidding, although the overall trend of the two cities is still opening higher, the indexes of each main line sector have opened higher. Compared with 9:15 and 9:16, they are already higher. There are clear signs of a pullback.
Especially the two core main areas of ‘big finance’ and ‘big infrastructure’.
The index growth of many industry sectors and concept sectors such as securities, banking, insurance, Internet finance, non-public transportation, machinery and equipment, architectural decoration, building materials, commercial real estate development, steel, cement... has increased even more in just two years. In three minutes, it generally fell by about 0.3% to 0.5%.
The investor groups in the two cities paid attention to a number of popular stocks that ranked among the top 20 in terms of popularity and discussion.
For example, 'Huake Shuguang' has fallen back to a 7.5% increase from the one-digit daily limit opening form at 9:15, and on the market, the transaction orders planned to be matched have rapidly increased to 1.2 after the one-digit daily limit opened. Thousands of hands, and it continues to expand.
‘Blue Stone Heavy Equipment’, a big monster stock, has seen its market growth drop from 5.55% at 9:15 to 3.76%.
‘Great Wisdom, Flush, and Oriental Fortune’ are the three Musketeers of the ‘Internet Finance’ sector.
The increase of "Great Wisdom" dropped from about 8% at 9:15 to 4%.
‘Flush’ jumped from around 4.22% at 9:15 to 2.75%.
‘Oriental Fortune’ fell back to a gain of 2.33% from around 3.56% at 9:15.
As for other core component stocks in the 'Internet Finance' sector, their performance is obviously not as good as these three stocks that have attracted much market attention.
‘China South Locomotive and China North Locomotive and Rolling Stock Corporation’ are two key weight stocks held by the main fund products of the ‘Yu Hang Series’.
The increase at this time also quickly fell from about 3.20% at 9:15 to about 1.75%.
There is also the market increase of 'Pacific Securities' at this moment, which is only 2.11%.
The market increase of ‘Huazhong Capital’ was only 1.78%, and it is still falling.
'LeTV', 'Netspeed Technology', 'Huaguo Software', 'Lixun Precision', 'Changying Precision'...these popular stocks have opened higher at the moment, all below 3%, compared to 9:15 At the same time, the gains generally fell by more than 1 point.
In short, almost all popular stocks.
As the call auction time goes by, the market gains are falling.
Of course, the decline in the growth of these stocks, as well as the decline in the index growth of the entire market, related industry sectors, and concept sectors in various core main lines, is not due to the reduction in active buying on the market. On the contrary, after the initial call auction of the market began today, On the market of various popular stocks, the amount of funds actively accepted is obviously higher than yesterday.
What caused the decline in these stocks.
Mainly due to the sharp increase in active selling on various stocks.
Almost unanimously, the proposed matching orders on each stock's market are all in a state of sharp increase with time.
9:18, 9:19...
The time for collective bidding in the two cities is getting closer and closer to 9:20.
Its overall high opening situation has obviously begun to fall back faster. At the same time, the volume of buy and sell orders participating in call auctions is also increasing at a faster pace.
Originally at 9:15, the two markets had just started to jump.
A total of nearly 1,600 stocks in the two cities opened red and opened higher.
By 9:19, the number of stocks that could still maintain a high opening in the two cities had fallen back to about 1,100.
Finally, when 9:20 arrived, the two cities entered the real bidding stage where orders cannot be canceled.
The number of red stocks in the two cities has dropped below 1,100, slightly more than half.
And the performance of each main line field.
Related industry sectors and concept sectors in the main areas of 'big finance' and 'big infrastructure', except for the 'Internet finance', 'high-speed rail', 'machinery and equipment', and 'non-public transportation' sectors, are still barely in the red. Status, the rest, such as 'securities, banking, insurance, construction decoration, building materials, commercial real estate development, steel, cement...' and other industry sector indexes, as well as the corresponding concept sector index, have turned from red to green, with a slight increase. The low opening trend.
At the same time, the main lines of "big finance" and "big infrastructure" have become differentiated, and the collective bidding trend continues to fall.
The main lines of ‘military industry’, ‘mobile Internet’, and ‘smartphone industry chain’ that performed well yesterday have risen to the top.
The 'National Defense and Military Industry' industry sector related to the main line of 'Military Industry', as well as concept sectors such as 'Beidou Navigation', 'Domestic Aircraft Carrier', 'Nuclear Power', and 'Military-Civil Integration', have begun to occupy the top growth lists of industry sectors and concept sectors in the two cities, ranking at the top Subsequently, industry sectors and concept sectors such as 'Film and Television Media', 'Internet Software', 'Internet Applications', 'Electronic Information', 'Mobile Payment', 'Smart City', 'Apple Concept', and 'Semiconductor Concept' followed the red plate. .
However, at a time when the main lines of ‘big finance’ and ‘big infrastructure’ are experiencing downward adjustments.
The magnitude of the red market rise of these major main-line related industry sectors and concept sectors is also very limited.
On the market of related core stocks and popular stocks, even if the active buying funds have a slight advantage and can barely suppress the selling, the strength is actually limited.
And as the collective bidding time goes by...
On the market of these stocks, the amount of active selling is also increasing sharply with the times.
“There’s something wrong with this collective bidding situation!”
At 9:21, in the main fund trading room of Zexi Investment Company, which is also in Shanghai, Zhou Kan, who was carefully observing the changes in the market prices of the two cities, frowned slightly and said: "'Big Finance', 'Big Infrastructure'" The main line has opened high and gone low, but the main lines of 'military industry', 'technological growth', 'mobile Internet', 'smartphone industry chain' and other main lines seem to have completed the formation of a unified force of funds. It is an embarrassing task. The market is long and short. The differences have obviously intensified.”
Hearing Zhou Kan's words, Xu Xiang, who was sitting next to Zhou Kan, carefully observed the changes in the market and responded: "It's still the same old problem. After the two cities continued to short-squeeze and rise, the short-term accumulation of profit-taking chips and the solution The arbitrage chips were too heavy, and the external market trend was not good last night. These profit orders and settlement arbitrage originally had a strong urge to sell and take profits. Now that the market has not seen any major positive news that exceeds expectations, it is naturally difficult to No more holding back."
"That's the truth." Zhou Kan thought for a moment and nodded, "It's okay to adjust it."
"Looking at this situation, I'm afraid it's going to go lower." Xu Xiang smiled and continued, "It seems that the 3,500-point barrier for the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index is not that easy to pass!"
"Mainly on the 'Big Finance' line, the technical deviation is too serious." Zhou Kan said, "Coupled with the subsequent heavy positive expectations, they will only begin to appear and be realized in December. At the end of this month, In terms of news expectations, there is basically a vacuum. Even if there is emotional support, the main line of 'big finance' is trading hundreds of billions of funds every day, and in this core main line, huge amounts of short-term funds have been accumulated. In the case of profit taking and settlement of arbitrage, the motivation to continue to attack fiercely is obviously still insufficient. The differences between long and short, and the stock price adjustment, should be normal, right? "
"Logically speaking, it is indeed the case." Xu Xiang nodded slightly.
Zhou Kan paused and continued: "I just hope that the adjustment can be gentler and don't constantly adjust the trend like last Monday. After all, the sharp drop hurts emotions and popularity!"
"The market has the final say on how to adjust it." Xu Xiang squinted his eyes slightly, "You'll know just by looking at it."
After speaking, he once again focused his attention on the markets of the two cities.
At this time, the market trading time has reached 9:24. Overall, the number of red stocks in the two cities has fallen below 1,050, accounting for less than 50% of the total.
And within the main line of ‘big finance’.
Even the most powerful ‘Internet Finance’ sector has fallen back to green market status.
As for the relatively strong related industry sectors and concept sector indexes in the main areas of 'military industry', 'mobile Internet', 'smartphone industry chain' and 'film and television media', they have all fallen back to an increase of less than 0.5% at this time.
And yesterday, it broke out of the daily limit trend. In the entire sector, the ‘sub-new stock’ sector index, which had 26 stocks with gains, is still in the red, but only has an increase of 0.32%.
Finally, in the fierce trading of long and short funds.
When 9:25 comes, the collective bidding in the two cities ends.
As expected, the Shanghai Stock Index failed to cross the 3,500-point mark, which was just a stone's throw away, nor could it continue to maintain a red-high opening trend, and opened directly as low as 0.39%.