Chapter 2436 Intersection

The reason why he found this question difficult to answer was not because Feng Yiping didn't know how to answer it, but rather how he answered it that would satisfy Raziel.

Putting aside issues of stance, looking at the facts, Feng Yiping knows that there are many and complex reasons for the huge trade deficit between China and the United States. The exchange rate is one aspect, but the exchange rate is definitely not the main reason.

However, he was not sure whether his answer would cause controversy between himself and Raziel.

Because, judging from the performance of the Bush administration, whether they clearly understand the reason or not, they have always categorically equated the trade deficit between the two countries with our country's exchange rate.

Therefore, this actually shows that they understand that the exchange rate is not the main cause, but they must regard the exchange rate issue as the main cause.

The White House Council of Economic Advisers has two main responsibilities: evaluating the government's economic policies and preparing the President's annual economic report.

As the head of this committee, if the White House makes such a strong statement, Raziel must personally agree with it.

Of course, expressing agreement does not mean that he really agrees, but in any case, he must be consistent with the president on such an issue, otherwise, he will not be able to hold his position.

And even if he didn't agree in his heart, it was equally certain that he would never show such an attitude in front of Feng Yiping.

Therefore, if it is not because of the exchange rate, Raziel should be unhappy. If it is because of the exchange rate, Feng Yiping is really unable to do this.

But considering Raziel's position in George W. Bush's economic team and the attacks he may encounter next, it is obvious that if his answer is not consistent with the attitude Raziel must show, then it is not ruled out that the other party will This elderly version of Professor

That must have been an irritating situation.

"Professor, how about we put aside all other factors and discuss this as an academic issue?" Feng Yiping said.

Raziel glanced at Feng Yiping and smiled, showing a few teeth, "Okay!"

Basically, they are both smart people. Basically, Feng Yiping's beginning has already explained his views on this matter.

However, by saying this, he expressed his attitude without causing direct opposition between the two of them.

Raziel nodded silently in his heart, he was indeed Feng Yiping.

Feng Yiping raised his glass and said, "Cheers!"

Raziel also raised his glass, "Cheers!"

That's good. If there is a dispute next, it will only be a matter of different academic opinions.

"Because of my professional relationship, I have been paying attention to this issue," Feng Yiping said. "We can clearly see that from 2005 to now, the RMB has appreciated by nearly 20% against the US dollar, but since the latest Judging from the data, China's exports to the United States will at least maintain an average annual growth rate of about 18.2%,"

"Facts speak louder than words, right?"

Raziel nodded. He knew that Feng Yiping had not finished explaining his point of view, so he did not rush to interrupt.

"But that's just one aspect,"

"Based on the current trends, I think both you and I can conclude that starting from next year, China's exports to the United States will definitely decline,"

Raziel nodded again, it was inevitable.

By next year, due to limitations in affordability, the American people's willingness to consume will definitely drop significantly, which means demand will decrease. Then, China's exports to the United States will naturally decrease.

"I can also make a bold prediction about our country's monetary policy next year, and even the next two years,"

"First of all, it is impossible for the yuan to depreciate,"

Raziel smiled again and nodded.

The economic situation of the entire world next year will definitely be more difficult. Under such circumstances, if the RMB depreciates, it will definitely trigger a violent rebound in Europe and the United States.

At the same time, it will also affect China's international reputation.

Unlike rogue countries like the United States, China has always been a sophisticated country internationally.

"Secondly, it is impossible for the yuan to appreciate," Feng Yiping continued.

Raziel thought for a moment and continued to nod.

Not only the United States, but also Europe's demand will also decline next year. Then, China's total exports will definitely decline significantly.

Under such premise, no matter how much pressure the United States and Europe exert, it is not and absolutely impossible for the people to appreciate.

"Let's take a look at the monetary policy of the United States in the next two years." After talking about China, Feng Yiping began to talk about the United States.

"First of all, it's impossible for the dollar to appreciate,"

This is of course certain.

There is a high probability that the subprime mortgage crisis will break out next year. Even if the United States can take active and decisive measures to contain it before it continues to expand, the losses it will cause to the U.S. economy cannot be underestimated.

Under such circumstances, how could the United States be so stupid as to let the dollar appreciate and weaken the competitiveness of American products in the international market?

"Considering that this crisis originated from Wall Street, considering the losses that this crisis has caused and will bring to countries around the world, and considering the international pressure faced by some possible operations,"

"I don't think the dollar will depreciate in the future,"

The crisis caused by you has caused us to suffer huge losses. Under such circumstances, do you still want to devalue the dollar? Where can such a good thing come from?

Feng Yiping believes that no matter how rogue the United States is, it will never be able to do such a thing.

Because it is equivalent to a person driving a luxury car on the road. Because he is too unscrupulous, he suddenly hits a large area of ​​pedestrians walking normally on the sidewalk, and many people are injured.

With everyone clearly seeing him and his license plate, he chose to drive away.

That's a choice only a fool would make.

The person driving the luxury car is the United States, and the innocent pedestrian hit by the luxury car is the other major economies in the world.

Under such public scrutiny, the United States, the instigator, wants to act like a rogue, which will inevitably lead to a collective counterattack by everyone who can't bear it, including their allies.

You can't bully people like this, right?

"To sum up, in the past few years, when the RMB appreciated, China's exports to the United States will still maintain high growth,"

"Next, when the exchange rates between the two countries remain relatively stable, China's exports to the United States will actually decline."

"So obviously, the issue that has the biggest impact on the trade deficit between China and China is definitely not the RMB exchange rate."

"To solve the related trade deficit, I think the United States needs to look for more reasons from itself. A very simple point is not to set restrictions or restrict sales to China on some products that are in high demand in China," Feng Yiping Come to your own conclusion.

"Your analysis makes sense," Raziel said.

He did not argue that Feng Yiping made a mistake in judging the development of the future situation.

Because although some things have not happened yet, he believes that the future will definitely develop according to Feng Yiping's analysis.

"But, have you ever considered a question? The reason why the RMB has appreciated but the trade deficit with the United States is still growing is precisely because the people are seriously underestimated. Therefore, only a 20% appreciation will not solve the problem?" Lacy Er said.

Feng Yiping's analysis has clear arguments and reasonable logic. He really can't find any refutation at all.

They can only continue to play according to their usual caliber. The RMB is seriously undervalued.

"Is it necessary to let the RMB appreciate by 50% all at once? I think that since the Plaza Accord in 1985, no country will accept such conditions,"

How is it possible for China, which has relied heavily on exports in recent years, to accept such conditions?

Raziel smiled, a little embarrassed.

Indeed, to get China to accept such conditions would require launching a war.

But that option simply doesn't exist.

More than 50 years ago, they had already lost once at the hands of the Chinese, and China now is completely different from that then.

Seeing that the old gentleman was somewhat embarrassed, Feng Yiping said with a smile, "Actually, there is no right or wrong about some issues."

"For example, in the United States, there is a trend here to be darker, so-called wheat-colored skin, because only people with money and time to go to the beach and sunbathe have that skin tone,"

"But in our country, we pursue whiter skin because generally speaking, only successful people who don't have to work under the sun have fair skin,"

"One is popular black and the other is popular white. Simply looking at the results, it can be said that they are natural opposites, but if you analyze the connotation, they are actually highly unified."

"Haha, you're right," Raziel laughed.

Feng Yiping's metaphor is indeed the most appropriate, "Cheers to this high degree of unity,"

They finally finished the main course, and they had a tacit understanding that no one raised the issue again, because they all knew that such a discussion was as meaningless as discussing whether Saddam had weapons of mass destruction at the time.

There is actually no reason why some problems are problems. It is just because some people, or some interest groups, want them to be problems.

"Feng, you may not know yet, but I also have another part-time job at the same time,"

"Oh, I'd love to hear the details,"

“I’m also on Governor Schwarzenegger’s Council of Economic Advisers,” Lazier said with a laugh.

Feng Yiping couldn't help but be stunned, "I really don't know this,"

Therefore, every industry is actually a circle. It seems to be very big, but in fact it is not.

"It's just that the relevant parties in California are too unsupportive of us,"

In order to prevent him from defending Schwarzenegger, Feng Yiping said this sentence first.

"I think this situation may change soon," Lazier said. "You may not know how proactive Governor Schwarzenegger and California are currently in action."

"Really?" Feng Yiping asked.

As for this, there is really nothing surprising.