Chapter 901 Multiple Reasons
A country is the same as a company. When the product structure is single and a trade deficit is formed, there will be a fiscal deficit, and then capital investment will continue to be needed to make up for the project deficit.
In fact, this method is not wrong, but there should be two prerequisites. One is whether the continuous inflow of foreign capital can be guaranteed, that is, continuous investment of foreign capital is required. project deficit.
It is a pity that the Thai government has only achieved the first point. There are continuous inflows of foreign capital from island countries and other countries, but the country's export capacity is getting lower and lower.
For example, the main products exported by Thailand are electronic products, and many electronic components imported by Huaxia are purchased from Southeast Asian countries such as Thailand.
But since last year, the global demand for electronic products has dropped sharply. China's growth alone cannot pull Thailand's electronic product exports. As a result, Thailand's export growth rate has dropped to 3%, while the trade deficit It is as high as 8.3%.
In other words, despite the fact that Thailand's exports seem to be booming, they are still losing money.
Most of the electronic product factories that Thailand mainly exports are invested and built by island countries. Because Thailand has low land prices, abundant labor, low wages and low consumption levels, it seems that Thailand has become a world-class electronic component manufacturer. Big countries are actually foundries of electronic product companies such as island countries.
Even with so much investment, many projects in Thailand are still in deficit year after year. It seems that the GDP is growing wildly, but in fact, it doesn't make much money at all. Most of the money has been made by those foreign investors, among which the island countries are the most.
Sony, Songxia, even AIWA and Sixth Sense have factories in Thailand. Not only is the construction cost low and the operating cost low, but there are also various preferential policies for foreign investment.
With more factories, the demand for workers will be greater, and workers' wages will naturally increase. The wages of workers in Thailand have increased more than ten times in ten years. If the wages of workers are high, labor-intensive industries will lose their international competitiveness.
The production of shoes, clothes and other products, which were mainly exported by Thailand, has been continuously reduced, and those factories have closed down one after another.
These data and materials were collected by Feng Yu, which also made Feng Yu deeply understand why Thailand's financial crisis broke out so quickly.
Look at Thailand's fiscal deficit. The per capita debt exceeds 1,500 US dollars, but the Thai people are still living very smartly. European high-end perfumes, famous wines, famous cars, famous watches and other luxury goods are imported in large quantities. People seem to be rich, so they just want to enjoy themselves.
Thailand is the world's third largest importer of Mercedes-Benz cars,
You can see how proud the Thai people are at this time. Fu Guangzheng wanted to help sell Songjiang cars to Thailand, but the dealers in Thailand didn't like it at all. Only imported luxury cars can be sold in Thailand. The market of mid-to-low-end cars has been completely occupied by island cars.
Thai people are still very satisfied with their lives and think that their country is developing very well. They even look down on Huaxia, because their per capita income far exceeds that of China.
One is to enjoy the money, and the other is to invest in the stock market. Everyone is very enthusiastic about the stock market. Whether it is teachers, workers, drivers, or even women who stay at home full-time, they all start to speculate in stocks, because the stock market has been rising all the way, thinking that fools can make money if they go in.
Bank deposits are getting less and less, so everyone withdraws money and invests it in the stock market? What's even more crazy is to invest in the stock market from bank loans. They think that the money they earn from the stock market can make a lot of money after paying off the interest.
The more representative ones are securities companies and financial companies. They can borrow a large amount of money from banks, and even manipulate the stock prices of some stocks to make money to a certain extent.
With more and more loans and less and less deposits, banks can only increase the loan interest rate, but this can't stop people from taking loans, with an annual interest rate as high as 17%? It's okay, I got a loan!
Take it to speculate in real estate and stocks, and you can earn it back in a few months! This is not an investment, it is clearly a speculation!
The interest on loans is too high, and some industrial companies cannot afford to pay back the interest. Conventional industries are severely restricted, resulting in fewer and fewer types of export products in Thailand.
In a normal country, if you have money, should you invest in some basic things, such as... education. But as for Thailand, their wealth is an illusion. They have a fiscal deficit. Where does the money come from to invest in education?
It can be said that the level of education and technology in Thailand is far inferior to other countries in Asia, and it is also far behind China. Currently ranked No. 1 in Asia.
Without science and technology and without engineers, heavy industry and high-tech industries cannot develop. There is no strong country, and heavy industry and high-tech industries are backward. Therefore, Thailand’s economy is prosperous on the surface, but it is not a powerful country at all.
To put it simply, Thailand can’t go up to the sky, can’t go down to the ground, the high-tech industry can’t go up, the traditional industries have lost their competitiveness, the trade deficit is inevitable, and the fiscal deficit is getting bigger and bigger.
Doesn’t the Thai government see these problems at all?
Of course not, they saw it, but there was no particularly good solution. The trade deficit is growing, and the baht itself is under pressure to depreciate. But once the baht depreciates, Thailand will lose even more.
There is no way, the Thai government can only intervene secretly, and must ensure the stability of the foreign exchange market. When a country's government has to intervene in the foreign exchange market, it is enough to show that the country's financial market has serious problems, and the economy has serious problems!
And this was also noticed by Soros and the others. The Thai government had to intervene before they made a full-scale attack. Then after they made an all-out attack, would the Thai government still be able to resist?
The Bank of Thailand can't get any money out at all, because there are too many bad debts and bad debts.
A large part of these bad debts is caused by bank managers who relax to their relatives and friends. These managers also believe that they can definitely make money by borrowing money from the bank to speculate in stocks and real estate.
Everyone else makes money like that, so of course we can't treat our own people badly. It doesn't matter if you don't have enough collateral, can you still lose money and afford it?
There are three people in the family, and each person must provide two flats, right? It doesn't matter if you can't live that much, anyway, this house is not for living, but for speculation. Wait a year or two, sell it after the rise, and you can earn an extra house.
Another important point is that the value of the Thai baht has been seriously overvalued. If the fixed exchange rate had not been adopted, the Thai baht would have depreciated long ago.
Various reasons have led to Thailand's financial crisis, which is inevitable. Even without Soros' intervention, Thailand will have a financial crisis. It's just that the entry of Soros and Feng Yu made the financial crisis break out earlier and more violently!
... (To be continued.)