Chapter 780: Too Radical a Market Change!

"Afraid?" Zhang Guangnian was stunned for a moment, then joked with a smile, "You are just dissatisfied. If the market is not good, you always complain. If the market is too good, you still complain."

Liao Guanghua was not angry at Zhang Guangnian's teasing. Instead, he said seriously: "Old Zhang, don't you really think that the market has changed too fast in more than a month? Especially the explosive growth rate of transaction volume and the financing balance. Continuing to surge at a rapid rate, the transaction volume has increased from an average of 200 to 300 billion to an average of 900 billion now, and the financing balance has increased from more than 700 billion initially to more than 1.1 trillion now.

The explosive speed of this kind of energy...

I remember that in the last bull market, the market turnover increased incrementally by several times.

It will take at least half a year to catalyze it, but now it has been catalyzed to such an extent in less than a month. Isn't this...shocking?

There are also changes in market sentiment and investment confidence, which are also too rapid.

More than a month ago, when the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index failed to break through 3,000 points, the market's investment sentiment was obviously in a big divergence.

However, if you look at the current investment sentiment of the entire market, it has basically turned into a consistent bull market expectation sentiment.

This change of mood is really amazing.

Logically speaking, changes in market conditions, especially changes in investment confidence and capital, all take time to be digested slowly. But today's market...does not follow normal logic and development at all, so in my heart It's just a little bit unreliable.

I always feel that the foundation of this bull market is not that solid, and there are always some hidden dangers! "

"You are just unfounded." Zhang Guangnian chuckled, "When was the last bull market? In 2006 or 2007, right? What was the domestic environment like at that time? The dissemination of information and information was another What environment? And now...

Now is the era of mobile Internet.

The number of Internet users is not only several times larger than that in 2006 and 2007? It is simply an increase of ten times or dozens of times.

The speed of information dissemination on the Internet is at least dozens or even hundreds of times that of the paper media era.

In other words, the current speed of market information dissemination is no longer the same as before. Whether it is negative or positive for the market, the speed of fermentation and the speed of impact on investors are exponentially higher than before. When the speed of information influence increases geometrically.

The market conditions fluctuate, and it is difficult not to grow exponentially.

In other words, the emotional reaction to every move in the current market will be much more intense than before, and it must be much more intense to be normal.

And this further contributes to the ups and downs and trend changes in the market.

Also, due to the rapid acceleration of information dissemination, there are more and more smart funds in the market.

Moreover, the capital groups on the market have become much faster and more powerful in exploring opportunities and focusing on speculation than before.

So, taking everything into consideration...

I think it is very normal that this bull market has broken out so rapidly, and that market volume, investment sentiment, and investment confidence have reversed so quickly.

Now that the market trend has been formed, the certainty of the bull market is getting higher and higher.

Then don't worry too much.

Since the position of 3500 points has been fully broken through and the historical holdup of the Shanghai Composite Index in the range of 3000 points to 3500 points has been fully released, it shows that the market's long consensus expectations are still very strong, and it also shows that the Shanghai Composite Index should not It's easy to fall back again. "

"I'm not worried about the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index falling back," Liao Guanghua said. "I'm worried that the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index will rise too fast and the chip structure will be unstable, which will overdraw the market's long power."

Zhang Guangnian said with a smile: "The market has its own self-regulating ability. As market participants, when we cannot change the development of market trends, the only thing we can do is to follow the market trends and make adaptive investments and transactions. However, In the short to medium term, as the core main lines that support the development of market conditions, such as 'big finance', 'big infrastructure', and 'military industry', there will still be no problems in terms of investment logic and expected development. "

"Regarding the rumors circulating in the market that the central bank will cut interest rates and reserve requirement ratios in December, is there any relevant internal information?" I heard Zhang Guangnian talking about the short and medium term of the core main lines of 'big finance', 'big infrastructure' and 'military industry' In terms of investment logic, Liao Guanghua paused for a while and then said, "The current line of 'big finance' is so radical, mainly due to the expectations brought about by this news. If the news cannot be fulfilled, the monetary policy in the macro market will turn If the expectations are true or false, then the subsequent market trend of the 'Big Finance' line will be very uncertain. At least... it should not be as smooth as it was during this period. "

Zhang Guangnian responded: "According to the information I can find, I haven't heard of this incident yet. Of course, some insiders have revealed that there is such an expectation, but there is no more precise information, but... it is highly likely that it is approaching. At this end of the year, even if the central bank does not cut interest rates or reduce reserve requirements, there should be other measures to increase market liquidity. After all, given the current macroeconomic environment, monetary liquidity is still tight, and many companies have short- and medium-term financial conditions. The financing environment has not changed much, and in terms of financial institutions, money is still relatively tight.”

"Other measures to increase market liquidity have little impact on the trend of the financial market." Liao Guanghua said, "The key is to let investors inside and outside the market understand the signal of a comprehensive reversal of the market's macro-monetary funds, so as to continue to maintain the market's bull market pattern and further open up market speculation space! If this expectation is not established, or it is completely unfulfilled.

Then I guess...

The Shanghai Composite Index will be difficult to continue to break through at 3,500 points.

After all, the current market turnover of the two markets has exploded to around 900 billion, and the financing balance has also increased to more than 1.1 trillion.

The amount of funds pouring into the market is basically a full reflection of the bullish power.

If the macro liquidity If the domestic monetary tightening expectations cannot be reversed and cannot be fully transformed into monetary easing expectations, then a major basic condition supporting the bull market will be gone, and naturally it will be difficult for a larger group of incremental funds with higher investment risk preferences to continue to flow into the market.

And there is no large enough incremental fund group to continue to play a role.

At this position, the Shanghai Composite Index wants to continue to move upward to a higher space and produce a more popular money-making effect, which will be quite difficult. "

"The expectation of macro-monetary policy turning to a loose situation..." Zhang Guangnian continued, "If the Federal Reserve does not do anything weird recently, it should still be a high probability. I think there is nothing wrong with the current 'big finance' line. Of course, the emotional progression of this core line is indeed too Fierce, especially the short-term gains of the securities sector and the Internet finance sector, which should be said to be far beyond the expectations of the majority of investors in the market. Few people could have thought that the indexes of these two sectors could double in just one month, right? "

Liao Guanghua smiled and nodded, and continued: "It is indeed hard to imagine, but the most unimaginable and the most beyond everyone's expectations should be the line of 'new stocks', right? In the past month, the line of 'new stocks' has been really crazy. Not to mention doubling stocks, 3x and 5x stocks are also everywhere. "

"The 'new stocks' sector is completely a carnival of market hot money. "Zhang Guangnian said, "The performance of these new stocks listed in the second half of this year after listing is really shocking one after another, Who would have thought that the ordinary stock of 'Lanshi Heavy Equipment' could rise more than ten times after listing? "

Liao Guanghua laughed and said, "Although the 'new stocks' line is very crazy, it still has a positive effect on the market. If it weren't for the extremely exaggerated money-making effect and hype of 'Lanshi Heavy Equipment', I estimate that the Shanghai Composite Index would not have broken through to 3,500 points so quickly, and the market turnover would not have progressed so rapidly.

This can be seen from the market trend from June to October in the second half of this year.

In this period from June to October, the market and money-making effect of the two markets were actually not bad under the leadership of the two core themes of 'big infrastructure' and 'military industry'.

But in terms of the progression of emotions and the degree of progression of incremental funds, it is completely incomparable with November. "

"That's for sure. "Zhang Guangnian took over and continued, "I think this is also the reason why the regulatory authorities have basically let the market speculation of hot money run wild in the past two months? After all, at this critical time when emotions and incremental capital groups are needed to vigorously stimulate the market and derive a comprehensive bull market, the regulatory authorities must also hope to use the speculation of hot money groups and the exaggerated money-making effect of the market to create the entire bull market situation. "

"In order to open up the direct financing channels of the market and pave the way and lay the foundation for the registration system of the subsequent market, the current attitude of the regulatory authorities is definitely beyond doubt." Liao Guanghua said, "But everything is too much or too little. At present, the major changes in the macro-funds have not really happened, but the incremental capital groups in the market have already exploded to an extremely terrifying level. Whether it is the Shanghai Stock Exchange or the Shenzhen Stock Exchange, they have basically set a historical high in transaction volume.

So many incremental capital groups have entered the market...

The nature of the funds that are surging into the market and the source of these funds are still very worthy of vigilance.

I feel that with the continuous rise of the market speculation wave and the sharp increase in the risk appetite of the entire market, more and more leveraged funds are pouring in.

If the leveraged fund group is allowed to expand blindly.

Then, once the subsequent market undergoes extreme and huge adjustments, leveraged funds are forced to retreat, and the market situation will be very tragic.

Maybe there will be systemic market liquidity risk problems! ”

Zhang Guangnian was slightly shocked when he heard Liao Guanghua's words. He paused for a moment and then replied: "It should be... not that bad, right? Overall, the current market risks should still be controllable, and compared with the global financial market, the overall valuation of our A-shares is still relatively low, and extreme continuous adjustments are unlikely to occur.

Of course, if the leveraged funds in the market are allowed to continue to expand rapidly.

At the same time, the market is also rising rapidly, and the valuation level of the entire market begins to enter the bubble stage from the reasonable range.

Then the risk naturally still exists.

But at that time, as the market regulator, the leaders should also be aware of this, right?

Generally speaking, I think this... is not an issue we should consider at the moment. We just need to analyze the market and analyze the investment direction. "

"Haha... That's true." Liao Guanghua laughed loudly, "Whenever the sky falls, there will always be tall people holding it up. We short people really don't have to worry so much."

Zhang Guangnian nodded, pondered for a moment, and couldn't help but change the topic and said: "Old Liao, the main fund products you manage, in addition to the holding chips of the core line of 'big finance', the holdings of the 'big infrastructure' line There should be a lot of chips, right?”

Liao Guanghua said: "The holding chips of the core line of 'infrastructure' have been reduced a lot. What's wrong? Is it possible that the core concept theme line of 'New Era Road, Maritime Silk Road', or related policies, Are there any new big trends?”

Zhang Guangnian responded: "I'm not sure, I just think that there is still a lot to be done in the line of 'big infrastructure', and regarding the macroeconomic strategic concept of 'New Era Road, Maritime Silk Road', its policy support is , there have been many economic strategic plans over the years, but I have never seen such a vigorous one. It is estimated that this line will be continued to be implemented as an important economic development line.

However, although there is no big new news about the macro-economic strategic concept of "New Era Road, Maritime Silk Road", there is a lot of new news about "reform and reorganization of central and state-owned enterprises". .

I heard that the State Council is promoting more "Mergers and Reorganizations of Central and State-owned Enterprises" projects and is preparing to integrate resources to better solve the problems of overcapacity and industry development in many industries. I think this investment direction should continue to be paid attention to, maybe There will also be a market intensity similar to that from June to October. "

"Hmm!" Liao Guanghua thought for a moment, nodded, and said, "I've heard a lot about this, okay, I'll pay attention to it in the future, and appropriately cut profits on some of the chips in the main line of 'Big Finance'. Then focus on the stocks of central enterprises and state-owned enterprises that are expected to "merge and reorganize".

"Do you think those stocks have this kind of 'mergers and reorganization expectations?'" After a pause, Liao Guanghua asked again.

Zhang Guangnian thought for a while and responded: "It's hard to say. There should be strong expectations in fields such as automobiles, high-speed rail, steel, cement... etc. As for the specific targets, we can only look at the news, but recently there have been A few checks went quite strongly, and I don’t know if there is any news.”

"You mean 'Huagong International', 'Huaguo Construction', 'Huaguo Railway Construction', 'Huaguo Communications Construction', 'Huaguo South Locomotive', 'Huaguo CNR'...this batch of 'Huaguo' prefixes" "Is it a heavyweight stock in the main line of infrastructure?" Liao Guanghua said, "The recent trend of these stocks has indeed exceeded expectations, and looking at the transaction data disclosed by the market recently, some time ago, it has been in the main areas of 'big infrastructure' and 'military industry'" The "Yu Hang" funds that have significantly reduced their positions and focused on the main line of "big finance" have come back. It is indeed a bit evil, but I haven't heard any news." (End of this chapter)