Chapter 803 Potential Shift in Long and Short Power!

"The main financial groups in the market are further converging on the core weight stocks of the popular main lines. Could this be caused by... the pressure of the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index at 3,600 points?" Next to Chen Shen, Gao Yixiang, the trading team leader who heard Chen Shen's sighs, responded, “It feels like although many stocks in the popular main areas of the market have diverged in trend today, there are still no problems with the overall market development and the market’s continued money-making effect, right?

After all, there are many popular stocks with high bids such as Flush, Shanghai Steel Union, Blue Stone Heavy Equipment, Huake Dawning...

There are also a number of popular main line weighted blue-chip stocks such as 'Huagong International, Huaguo Construction, Huaxin Securities, Huashang Securities, Huaguo MCC...' and other popular main lines.

The overall money-making effect is still rising.

At least for now, there are no signs of market adjustment in these stocks, right?

I feel that as long as the market leader does not die, the market will not stop. Whether it is the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index, the Shenzhen Stock Exchange Index, or the ChiNext Index, there is a high probability that it can continue to break through upward.

Of course, in addition to the market trends of these high-standard leaders and the performance of market sentiment.

The performance of the two cities is also very important.

But looking at the volume of today's market, there is still a continuous upward trend. The shrinking trend in the past two days has not developed to today.

The amount of energy is more than 950 billion, which is an increase of more than 10 billion compared with yesterday.

I think this amount can be increased incrementally, so it should be very healthy, right?

In general, I think the current market trend of the two cities should be very healthy. We should continue to hold long positions, and we can also appropriately adjust according to the development of the market conditions and the main funds continue to move towards the core main line weight of the blue chip market. This trend of stocks concentrating will lead to further concentration of positions, thereby obtaining more excess returns at this stage of the market and further increasing the net value of our fund products. "

"On the surface, everything you said is correct." Chen Shen's eyes did not leave the frozen market of the two markets. He just waited for Gao Yixiang to finish his analysis, paused for a while, and continued, "But don't forget, the current middle price in the market is The speed of accumulation of short-term profit taking and unwinding of arbitrage orders far exceeds the speed of incremental over-the-counter funds entering the market.

At the same time, if it is these core popular main lines.

Compared with the trend of leading stocks, a large number of constituent stocks are not so smooth. At this stage, they cannot further open up the upward space of stock prices, and their valuations cannot be further improved rapidly. Then...it has the same concept and is the core of the same industry. Weight leading stocks.

It is also impossible to continue to strengthen independently, and the valuation is too far away from these non-popular core mainline stocks.

Analysis based on past historical market trends.

The anchor of market valuation is not determined by these core leading stocks in various industries, popular stocks, and conceptual leading stocks that all kinds of active funds gather to speculate, but by a large number of ordinary stocks with average fundamentals and no major financial groups to focus on and control the market. Determined by constituent stocks.

In other words, even if the market is in a bullish stage.

Although industry leaders and growth leaders with excellent fundamentals can enjoy the market's valuation premium and liquidity premium to a certain extent, they still cannot completely break away from the overall industry's general valuation level and cannot exceed the valuation of ordinary stocks in a number of industries. The value is too far.

If the difference in valuation between the two is too large.

Then, there is no doubt that the valuation of leading stocks will eventually retrace accordingly.

It also shows that in this case, the valuation of leading stocks will be generally overestimated, and there will be a certain bubble in the corresponding stock chips. Since there is a bubble, it must be accompanied by risks.

Let’s look at the current market conditions.

Previously, there were three core main areas: ‘big finance’, ‘big infrastructure’ and ‘military industry’.

Whether it is core leading stocks, weighted blue-chip stocks, concept hot stocks, or a group of ordinary stocks, although it is not a complete general rise situation, there is a slight gap in strength between the two, but in general, it is There was no over-differentiation.

But now, this situation of differentiation has emerged.

This shows that among the three core main lines, this large number of expected imaginations are limited, and some non-popular general industry stocks have reached the price that everyone expected.

That is, the most optimistic expectation everyone estimates is the current stock price reaction position of these stocks.

Going further up, the willingness of the bulls to take over and the power of the bulls to take the initiative will inevitably weaken significantly under the premise that the cost-effectiveness of investment and the profit-loss ratio gradually lose cost-effectiveness.

At the same time, a large number of short- and medium-term profit-taking and arbitrage orders were previously deposited in these stocks.

When the stock price reaches inner expectations and fully reflects the fundamentals... the idea of ​​​​"reducing positions and taking profits" will inevitably occur and continue to sell in large quantities.

I think this is also the case in today's market...

There are a number of core main areas such as ‘big finance’, ‘big infrastructure’, and ‘military industry’.

The stock prices of a large number of heavyweight core stocks such as 'Huaxin Securities, Huashang Securities, Huaguo Construction, Huaguo MCC, Huagong International, Huaxin Building Materials...', as well as blue-chip large-cap stocks, have continued to hit new annual highs and new market highs. Moreover, on the market of these tickets, the main capital group still showed large-scale net buying, and the overall main capital trading situation in the entire core main line area actually showed a slight net outflow. "

When Chen Shen said this, his eyes moved from the frozen two-market board to look at Wang Jinglun, another trading team leader who had not spoken, and asked: "Jinglun, what do you think? Do you have any thoughts on the closing results of the two markets today?"

Wang Jinglun saw Chen Shen asking questions, pondered for a while, and moved his eyes away from the computer screen. He stood up and said: "I think what Mr. Chen said is right. The trends of stocks in the same industry and concept sectors in the hot main line are generally differentiated. It will definitely not be a good thing for the market's future performance.

Although the turnover of the two markets is still rising today.

But there is no doubt that the internal chip structure of many stocks has obviously begun to loosen.

During this period of time, as the index continued to squeeze and rise, the accumulated short-term and medium-term profit-taking, as well as the unwinding, and the floating For some locked-in chips, facing the Shanghai Composite Index rising to this point and the technical aspects being completely divergent, the idea of ​​taking profits or reducing losses should be very strong.

On the other hand, the market's bullish sentiment and potential bullish capital strength.

Although the current market's bullish sentiment is still hot and still maintains a high level, we all know the difficulty of "going one step further".

When the market's bullish sentiment is already extremely hot, it is difficult to make the sentiment progress one step further.

Even if there is a stimulus from the macro news, it is very difficult.

And the bullish sentiment cannot progress one step further, that is to say, the current active bullish groups that are optimistic about the market have basically entered the market.

This also means that the most active bullish capital strength in the market.

It has been in the previous market for a long time. .

At present, the funds that can still support the upward trend of the market and continue to take over the market, as well as many hot leading stocks with strong expectations and even main-line stocks.

It can only come from the potential investors who have not yet entered the market.

At this time, although the overall bearish sentiment in the market is very weak under the current situation, there is basically no public bearish voice.

But I just said...

In the index's forced rise for a month, the accumulated short-term and medium-term profit-taking volume, as well as the volume of unwinding and floating locked-in volume, are very terrifying.

Moreover, these funds can be said to be the potential short-selling force in the future.

In other words, at this time, the potential long-term fund power of the market is already far weaker than the potential short-selling power.

If the main line The market cannot further open up the valuation space, and the valuation of a number of mainline common component stocks cannot be further improved.

The large-scale fund groups locked in the market, and the fund groups that gradually took over the market and continued to be optimistic.

Suddenly, a huge divergence occurred.

Then, when a large number of potential short-selling forces in the market realized that the market was not so easy to rise actively, the profit effect would gradually decrease, and the huge concentrated selling tide came.

So, at this time, there is a potential huge risk of correction in the market.

There is no problem.

This is implemented in the main fund product holdings and transactions of our institution, as well as investment strategies. I think we can't follow the market trend and the aggressive operations of many active fund groups at this time, thinking about further concentrating positions and chasing the leaders to obtain excess profits in the market.

Instead, we should appropriately reduce the holdings of some mainline stocks and do a good job of risk control for extreme market fluctuations or extreme adjustments.

There is also the problem of the general differentiation of mainline stocks mentioned by Mr. Chen just now...

According to the historical market trends in the past, generally in the same hot mainline field, individual stocks have a large differentiation, and the end of the mainline market is not far away. "

"Okay, this analysis is good and well-founded." At some point, the company's general manager Liu Ziliang also came to the trading room. He smiled and looked at Wang Jinglun who had just finished his analysis and said, "Even if the market is a bull market, we really can't take it lightly in the process of holding positions. We only see the expected profits, but not the risks hidden behind the market. "

"Mr. Liu, you also think..." Chen Shen's face showed a surprised look, and he couldn't help asking.

Liu Ziliang continued to laugh, and thought of Chen Shen's words, and said: "Your analysis, I have heard it when I was at the door just now. The Shanghai Composite Index has been squeezed out continuously in the past month, just to let the majority of investors in the market form a comprehensive expectation that this is a bull market.

Now, the result of this comprehensive expectation has been achieved.

In other words, the expectations of many major funds that intervened in the market on a large scale a month ago have been fulfilled.

Now that the expectations have been fulfilled, can these funds still hold back the idea of ​​reducing positions and stopping profits? I'm afraid it's unlikely?

In addition, before the central bank's monetary policy is implemented next month, the current market's volume and energy progress has indeed reached a bottleneck.

Based on the current market's volume performance, as well as the accumulated continuous profit-taking and unwinding.

Want to rely on the continuous progress of financing and the large number of potential investors gradually pouring in from the off-site to support the market and continue to open up space.

I think... basically, it is still unrealistic.

So, since there are potential risks, and the subsequent major main line areas, the investment cost-effectiveness and profit-loss ratio are not high in the market development.

At the same time, the market also showed a differentiated trend.

Then, appropriately reduce the position and stop profit of those main line stocks that have achieved the expected fulfillment, and reduce a certain position to cope with the extreme adjustment risks that may appear in the market.

That is, it is a natural and smooth thing. "

"Thank you for your approval, Mr. Liu." Chen Shen didn't expect that Liu Ziliang's ideas were exactly the same as his own. He was very happy and responded, "Then I will execute it according to my ideas."

Liu Ziliang nodded, turned his eyes back to Gao Yixiang and Wang Jinglun, and said: "You two are good, and you both have your own opinions. "

The two of them smiled awkwardly, then responded with one or two words before lowering their heads to continue reviewing the market.

When their eyes returned to the frozen market of the two markets, the market time had already moved to 5:30 p.m., and the Dragon and Tiger lists of the two markets, as well as the margin trading balance data, were refreshed at the same time. (End of this chapter)