Chapter 143 Don’t Fall in Love with Stocks!

"Shanghai Steel Union is indeed the leading soul stock in the two cities. The last fifteen minutes of the last trading session were truly exciting."

After seeing the closing results of Shanghai Stock Exchange and the shocking reversal of this stock in the last fifteen minutes of late trading, some retail investors on the online stock forum couldn't help but marvel.

“Without the support of Fortune Road’s seats, and despite the negative performance, it is still going so strong, it seems that the market is not over yet!”

"I caught up in the early trading. I thought I was buried, but I didn't expect there would be a surprise in the late trading."

"Today's trend in the Shanghai Stock Exchange is a wash, right?"

"Absolutely. Looking at the time-sharing transactions in the last fifteen minutes of the late trading, it can be seen that big funds are actually buying, and basically all the sales are loose orders."

"Maybe the main force saves itself!"

“Whether it’s a washout or self-rescue, we’ll know later when we look at the Dragon and Tiger List.”

"Yes, the Shanghai Steel Federation has a great amplitude today, and the turnover rate is also quite high. There must be a dragon and tiger list."

"Although there is no second consecutive board, despite the market's expected weakness, it still closed sharply higher and outperformed the index. This is enough to prove the strength of this stock, and it is also enough to show that its market is not over."

"Yes, the originally weak sentiment in the market was directly reversed by the late-day surge."

"However, the late-day rally is still a bit of a surprise move. If the market trend had not been very good today and the investment sentiment on the market was hot, I am afraid that in the wave at about 1 o'clock, the Shanghai Steel Union would have directly dropped to the limit."

"On the whole, the main direction of attack by active funds on the market today is still on stocks with performance that exceeds expectations."

"Where is it? Many blue-chip and white-horse sectors with good performance have basically remained unchanged except for liquor."

"It should be said that stocks in the emerging industry sector that have exceeded expected performance, such as Wangsu Technology and Fenda Technology, are indeed doing better than Shanghai Steel Alliance today."

"The logic is different. I still like the Shanghai Steel Federation, which is straightforward and makes huge profits."

"Me too, and I saw that after the Shanghai Steel Union appeared on Fortune Road, it fell all the way, and quickly stopped falling at the height of the ninth board, which was the first wave of speculation in the early stage, that is, around 20 yuan. This shows that the Shanghai Stock Exchange The logic of Steel Union's future expectations should be recognized by short-term funds in the entire market. Even without the support of Fortune Road's seats, market funds have great expectations for the future of this stock, which naturally shows that this check... …There’s still a lot of room for upside.”

"Obviously, in the short term, whether it is weak or not, it is strong. This is the performance of the Shanghai Steel Federation today."

"I also feel that Shanghai Steel Union has strong support capabilities in the price range of 20 yuan to 23 yuan. Facts have proved that funds have been sold several times. In so many days, the cumulative turnover rate has exceeded 100%, that is, The chips on the market have almost changed, but Shanghai Steel Union continues to hold on at this position, so the stock price will inevitably rise in the future.”

"Yesterday's daily limit should indicate the expected attitude of big funds towards this stock, right?"

When the discussion about Shanghai Steel Union's stock in the online stock forum increased again...someone in the main hot money group where Su Yu belonged also expressed surprise at the stock's trend today.

"Shanghai Steel Federation's trend today...is somewhat beyond expectations!"

"Indeed, I originally thought that this check could not be pulled up when the mood was fermenting in the early trading. In the afternoon, when all the funds in the market were chasing the performance tickets, it was going to fall to the limit. Unexpectedly, it actually pulled up from the water in the end. The funds for making this check are worth something!”

"The Shanghai Steel Federation's future expectations are still there, and today the differences have turned into consensus."

"Yes, if many performance stocks that performed well today fall back tomorrow, then funds will naturally flow back into the 'Internet Finance' sector headed by Shanghai Steel Federation."

"To be honest... I am not optimistic about the main direction of funds today, especially the liquor sector."

"Not to mention that the current market is still a game of existing funds. It is impossible to pull these white horses and blue chips that are locked up layer by layer. Even stocks such as Internet Speed ​​Technology and Fenda Technology are almost at the time of a correction. After all, they have When the market bottomed out on June 25, the cumulative increase of these stocks was really too big, and the profit margins were piled up very thickly. At this time, funds were attacking these areas, and it was difficult to continue to create a money-making effect, and it was even more difficult to make money. The majority of retail investors, in this position, continue to catch up and carry out relays. "

"On the other hand, the Shanghai Stock Exchange and many purely conceptual 'Internet finance' stocks have made quite sufficient adjustments recently."

"And in this sector, almost all concept stocks have a small circulation, which is very suitable for the current attack direction of market funds."

"I also think that the market conditions of the Shanghai Steel Federation and the 'Internet Finance' sector are not over."

"After all, it is the core concept of 'financial technology' that is strongly promoted by the country's macroeconomics. I also think we can continue to do it."

"There are no 5x or 10x stocks like this core mainline concept, and it will definitely not end before the end."

"What about the leading target? Do you think it will still be driven by the Shanghai Steel Federation?"

"Currently, the Shanghai Steel Federation is the most popular and has the greatest fund aggregation effect. If we want to do something, it will definitely be based on this check. Of course... Tianyu's information is not bad either."

"Today, Tianyu Information is indeed doing better than Shanghai Steel Alliance."

"But the trend logic of Tianyu Information today should be completely different from that of Shanghai Steel Federation, right?"

"Hey, the Shanghai Steel Federation or the Su brothers stepped out of the ground on the day they came out. It was too painful. It will be very difficult to cross that huge negative line in the future!"

"Well, indeed...this check is essentially the core concept of Brother Su."

"It's a pity that Brother Su cleared his position at a high position after two waves of huge profits. He shouldn't come back again, right?"

"It's hard to say, Brother Su rarely plays his cards according to the routine!"

"Let's take a look at the Dragon and Tiger List. The funds of Shanghai Steel Union were raised late today. They are quite courageous. I wonder which one is the main force?"

Following the heated discussion, at 5:30 pm, the new Dragon and Tiger list was announced.

The Shanghai Steel Federation is on the list, and Su Yu’s Yuhang Fortune Road seat is on the buy list.

Although his seat purchase capital is not large, only 9.9 million, ranking third on the buy list, which is far inferior to buying one or two, when the majority of investors in the market saw that Yuhang Fortune Road appeared again in Shanghai Steel United to buy At the moment when the list was announced, the crowd was still excited, and the discussion was heated and exploded in an instant.

"Damn it, Fortune Road appears on the Shanghai Steel Federation Dragon and Tiger List again!"

"Haha... Fortune Road is finally back. I knew it, I knew it... Shanghai Steel Union's market will never end."

"Finally, the King of Fortune Road has returned. I'm so touched... I took over the chips at 29 yuan. I hope I can finally get rid of the trap this time, right?"

"Shanghai Steel Union is indeed a favorite stock of Fortune Road!"

"What's the 'Rejuvenation' concept stock, what's the 'Internet Finance' concept leader, in my opinion... Shanghai Steel Union's biggest rising logic is the Wealth Road concept. Only if Wealth Road dominates this stock can people continue to Take a look, I didn’t say anything... I’ll grab the money tomorrow.”

“But the funds purchased from Fortune Road today are not huge!”

"Today should be Fortune Road's test position, right? Don't worry, I think since Fortune Road is still buying, it will definitely continue to increase positions."

"It doesn't matter how much money you buy from Fortune Road. What matters is your attitude."

"Yes, as long as you follow the trend quickly, you will not lose money at all within three trading days after buying on Fortune Road."

"Shanghai Steel Union is the biggest bullish stock in the market this year, right?"

"Not really. If we calculate the overall increase from the beginning of the year to today, Hua Qingbao is the real leader. Although Shanghai Steel Union has experienced two consecutive surges in the past two months, the corrections in each wave are also fierce. , it’s either rising or falling at every turn, and the overall increase is actually not that big.”

"Shanghai Steel Union can only be considered a monster stock, not a bull stock."

"But whether it is a monster stock or a bull stock, as long as it is one that Fortune Road has taken care of, it will be good. And if you see Fortune Road buying, you can buy it with confidence, just don't go up a lot later. Just keep chasing higher.”

"Indeed, speaking of it, the stocks that are rising sharply in the current market are all Fortune Road concept stocks!"

"Isn't that right? Fenda Technology, Internet Speed ​​Technology, Huaqingbao, Changqu Technology, Tianyu Information... these tickets, which Fortune Road has never done it? And in the tickets of Fenda Technology, Huaqingbao, Tianyu Information... The wave of gains from the bottom is basically the work of Fortune Road.”

“I have to say that Fortune Road’s ability to discover bullish stocks and create monster stocks is truly unique.”

"There is no one that has the strongest hot money in the current market."

Throughout the entire online and offline life, countless retail investors who were following Shanghai Steel Federation were excited and in a surging mood. In the main hot money group where Su Yu was located, everyone was also quite shocked by the Shanghai Steel Federation's Dragon and Tiger ranking data.

“Damn it, it’s really Brother Su!”

"I just said that the funds that pushed up the Shanghai Steel Union stock in the late trading had something to do with it, and it turned out to be true."

"Brother Su has made two in and two out. On this stock, he has made almost 5 times the profit, which is enough to make people envious and jealous. Are brothers Su planning to do it again?"

"It's very possible!"

"Looking at the market situation, after the Su brothers' seats were exposed again, the popularity of Shanghai Steel Union has directly soared to the first place in the hot stock rankings of the two cities."

"I have to say, Brother Su is the best!"

"However, if the Shanghai Steel Federation continues to see another wave of market trends in this position, there should not be many people who dare to follow the trend, right? Can they be pulled up? Moreover, Brother Su's seat has too much influence. If he enters the market on a large scale, After that, especially after the two or three board heights are raised, I am afraid that many major funds will not dare to enter the market again. "

"After all, according to early experience, if it is too long after the Su brothers enter the field, they will follow the trend and relay at a high position."

"Once the Su brothers quickly hit the market, the effect of retail investors following suit and smashing the market will be quite terrifying, and no main force funds can bear it."

"Just like those major hot money companies that were taken over by the Shanghai Steel Union at 30 yuan ago, they were directly massacred by the Su brothers."

"As long as the Shanghai Steel Federation's logic is strong enough, there will be no problem."

"When Brother Su enters the market, there shouldn't be much risk within the third board. Outside of the third board, it's hard to say."

"Even if it is the height of the third board, it has to directly touch the 30 yuan position. That is a solid area for chips to be locked up. Brother Su shot him dead this time... Are you really planning to become the People's Liberation Army?"

"It's hard to say. Brother Su has come in three times, so I don't dare to follow him anymore."

"Take a step and take a look!"

"If the Shanghai Steel Federation, with the blessing of Brother Su's seats, really goes to a new high position of 30 yuan, when all the chips in the field are released, then I have to say, it can really take a high look."

"Based on the two core concepts of 'Rejuvenation System' and 'Internet Finance', the price of 30 yuan is almost the limit. When Brother Su appeared before, he should have agreed that the price would be three times higher than the bottom. If you want to expand the space at 30 yuan, it will be difficult without other favorable stimuli!"

"Overall, the height is too high, and it depends on the market capital synergy and emotional changes of Shanghai Steel Union at every step."

"But no matter what, this check from Shanghai Steel Union has undoubtedly become a symbol of Brother Su's seat, which is truly comparable to the battle when General Leader Xu operated Yuzhou Beer."

"Yes, even if I was just watching, I was very excited and amazed to see Brother Su enter and exit the Shanghai Steel Union twice and reap several times the profit!"

"But most people can't hold on to this ticket."

"Don't talk about others. I entered and exited three times, but I didn't hold on to it. The total profit was less than 30%, which was miserable."

"Uh... 30% profit is miserable? I have relayed more times than you, but the total profit is less than 20%."

"You must have eaten the floor!"

The messages in the group continued to refresh. Su Yu roughly read it for a while, did not speak, and directly closed the chat box in the group.

After establishing a private equity institution, as the amount of funds he manipulated became larger and larger, and as his seat became more and more influential, he was no longer easy to speak publicly.

After all, at this time...

Every bit of his speech may be amplified by the market, thus bringing him some unnecessary trouble.

If he really wants to speak out and express some of his own ideas and opinions, he thinks that the data of the Dragon and Tiger List revealed by the seat alone is enough.

After exiting the group chat.

Before leaving get off work, Su Yu continued to learn about the changes in the holdings of the main funds of Jingda Investment from Lin Antu.

Knowing that the other party had indeed significantly reduced its holdings in Shanghai-Hong Kong Group and Waigaoqiao, it also confirmed that his operation strategy was correct, so he left the company with Li Meng after get off work.

In the evening, with the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Composite Index, and ChiNext Index rebounding for two consecutive days.

The investment sentiment of the entire market has obviously warmed up a lot.

Like Shanghai Steel Union, Fenda Technology, Netspeed Technology, Huaqingbao, Changqu Technology, Tianyu Information... These core hot stocks on the ChiNext, the discussion heat continues to rise, and the number of optimistic investors is also increasing; while investors holding shares in traditional financial sectors, real estate, nonferrous metals, steel, coal and other main board weight sectors are still full of complaints and anger.

Of course...

Like the white wine sector, which has an overall increase of more than 3% today, driving the rebound of the entire "big consumption" sector.

Today, many investors and large financial institutions that are stuck in this sector are relieved and have great hope of reversing the predicament.

Moreover, thanks to the excellent performance of many stocks in the sector.

The core, first- and second-tier liquor brand stocks such as Qianzhou Moutai, Wuliangye, Luzhou Laojiao, Jincheng Fenjiu, etc., have been praised by numerous brokerages and investment institutions in their research reports. There is even an investment analyst from "Anhe Securities" who made a long analysis in the research report and directly shouted the slogan of "ten times in five years" for these first- and second-tier liquor brand stocks, which attracted the attention of many investors.

"Ten times in five years, these analysts are really brave to say it!"

Li Meng browsed a lot of institutional research reports on the liquor sector and complained speechlessly.

Su Yu chuckled and said, "Institutional research reports can provide some data for reference, but it would be foolish to really believe their buying and selling suggestions. After all, it is not impossible for the liquor sector to increase tenfold in five years, and this statement can be applied to any stock in the entire market."

"After all, the future is uncertain, so you can say anything."

"No matter how powerful an investment analyst is, he cannot see through and predict the market situation and industry changes in one or two years in advance, let alone five years?"

"In the current market, institutional investors, 99.9% of fund managers, are just looking at quarterly and annual reports."

"What they speculate is just three months or six months of expectations."

"Who would be stupid enough to look at three years or five years?" After all, even the company itself does not know what its operating conditions will be like in three or five years. "

"In terms of stock prices..."

"Even if the performance has been growing continuously for five years, the stock price trend in the market may be halved first and then rise several times."

Li Meng listened to him, smiled, and said: "You mean that these research reports and buying and selling opinions are not credible, and in fact, most of the long-term investments in the entire market are just fortune-telling!"

"Yes!" Su Yu smiled, "Long-term investment and short-term investment are actually probability investments. The so-called value investment and stock price speculation are essentially... different paths to the same destination."

"Does this market... really have value investment?" Li Meng asked after a pause.

Su Yu thought about it and replied: "Well... for investors, it is faith. If you believe it exists, then it exists. If you think that all investments are actually probability investments, then it does not exist."

"If not, how do you explain Berkshire's success?" Li Meng said a little confused.

Su Yu replied with a smile: "Thanks to the long-term growth of the U.S. stock market and the continuous improvement of national strength, when the macro environment has been very good, the operating risks and profitability of enterprises are relatively optimistic. At this time, individuals or Fund managers can achieve cycle-smoothing results through excellent position control and stock selection. Of course... fund managers who can essentially do this over many years are rare. "

"Preferred stocks." Li Meng said, "This is originally an explanation of value investment!"

Su Yu replied: "That's not necessarily true. In your opinion... what kind of corporate stocks do you think are excellent?"

Li Mengmeng thought for a while and said: "The operation is stable, the management has a broad vision and is down-to-earth, the wealth indicators are healthy and far ahead of its peers, it has core competitiveness, and has a wide moat..."

"What about?" Su Yu continued to ask.

"As for A-shares, Qianzhou Moutai, Yangtze Electric Power, Gree Electric, Kewan Real Estate..." Li Meng blurted out, giving examples of more than a dozen stocks.

Su Yu nodded with a smile and said: "According to the fundamental situation you mentioned, from the so-called corporate moat such as industry status, product pricing power, core technology, brand influence, as well as historically excellent financial indicators, and solid operating performance, Look, these...are indeed excellent stocks."

"But this only shows that their historical performance and historical performance are very excellent."

"And when we invest, we look at the future."

"Take Qianzhou Moutai, which you think has a unique business model and a very wide brand moat. Looking into the future, can its performance continue to grow?"

"Of course this can't be done!" Li Meng said, "No company can maintain its performance growth rate forever."

Su Yu nodded and said: "Yes, all excellence is relative. No matter how outstanding a company's history is, its performance will stall and its fundamentals will deteriorate. The so-called always seeking excellent corporate investments and practicing value investing means that It’s a false proposition in the first place. How do you know that it will continue to be excellent and its intrinsic stock value will continue to increase in the future?”

"So, in my opinion, stocks that have historically performed well..."

"The only thing that can give people some comfort is that it will make investors feel that its future performance will be worse than its historical performance. It only has a little more chance of continued excellent performance."

"Looking at Balao's investment history, he has been trial and error for decades. He is only using the principle of selecting stocks with excellent historical performance to increase the certainty of future investment. You I’ve never seen Balao invest in emerging industry stocks with no historical performance, right? That’s the reason.”

“But following this point may actually make you fall into an ‘investment trap’ sometimes.”

"When you accept the concept of value investing, when you believe that a company or a stock will continue to be excellent, then when its performance stalls and the stock price drops sharply, you will not notice it and will continue to do so. Believe that the intrinsic value of the company has not changed, but that the market is wrong. Under this illusion, generally an investor will not stop losses in time, but on the contrary, he will most likely continue to increase his position, because He believes value will eventually return."

"So, in my opinion, for the average investor."

“Especially for individual investors whose error tolerance is far lower than that of large institutions, value investing is an evil path.”

"When you fall in love with stocks, the final result is not to break up, but to be scarred by it, and eventually your faith collapses. In my opinion... any value investment stock that is praised by market investors ’, their inner essence has the demeanor of a ‘scumbag’!”