Chapter 139 Valuation Trap
After hearing Su Yu's words, Yang Hao's expression gradually became serious.
He had never thought about his problem before, but now... After Su Yu reminded him, he thought about it carefully and found that it was indeed the case.
After he broke with his father, as one of the group's major shareholders, and after his mother's death, a group of old people who remained in the group rebelled against the uneven distribution of interests on the existing group board of directors. He has indeed become a leader for some people. The biggest obstacle on the way to the pursuit of core interests.
"You once said..."
Su Yu paused for a while and continued: "Chen Qingnian of Leishen Security Company was a ruthless person when he made his fortune from the 1990s to the new century. For such a person... many bottom lines may be broken. Now that you have publicly broken up with your father, I think you should pay more attention to your own safety in order to avoid any eventuality."
"Thank you Brother Su for the reminder." Yang Hao pondered for a while and replied, "But if Chen Qingnian can really stand up and deal with me, I think... I would be happy to see it. After all, it will really be confirmed. My guess is that as the saying goes, 'If you don't enter the tiger's den, you won't get the tiger's cubs.' I am willing to take this risk."
Among Yang Hao's practical demands, his core goal demand is not actually the control of Kumho Group.
But to find out the truth behind his mother's death in a car accident, to avenge his dead mother and the people he loved, and to give them justice.
As for the group's disputes and the winning and losing at the shareholders' meeting, he didn't take it that seriously.
Of course, if his speculation can be followed...
In order to force out the Chen family's forces hiding behind his father and find out the truth of what happened back then, he would not mind using himself as 'bait' to catch the big fish 'Chen Qingnian'.
"Okay!" Su Yu nodded slightly and said, "I've said everything that needs to be said. You just have to know exactly what to do."
"Yeah." Yang Hao nodded in response.
Afterwards, the two continued to chat for a while, and then dispersed after lunch.
By the time Su Yu returned to the company, it was already 1:32 pm. After the continuous correction and shrinkage in the past few days, the three major indexes had resumed their upward trend today.
"How is it?" Su Yu came to the trading day and asked Li Meng.
Li Meng saw him sitting down at the computer workstation next to him and said with a smile: "The upward trend of the index has continued the strong trend in the morning, and both the main board and the GEM index are all rising with heavy volume, and the various stocks that have pulled back in the early stage have continued to rise. Popular sectors and hot concepts are also rebounding sharply. It seems that the adjustment of the index should be over in the short term.”
"And just as you guessed before..."
"The largest correction in this round for each of the stocks we have built positions is around 20%. Among them, three stocks, such as Wangsu Technology, LeTV, and Fenda Technology, have been continuously attacked by market funds. The amplitude of this round of adjustment has all been Within 10%, now... these stocks are almost reaching their previous highs.”
"It seems that the trend of institutional funds flowing into the core constituent stocks of GEM that is expected to be good in the future is accelerating and has not stopped." Su Yu listened to Li Meng's report and hurriedly turned on the computer, switched the interface to the stock market trading conditions, and continued with a smile. , "What about the future 'Shanghai Free Trade Zone' concept stocks that we are building a position in? Is there any news recently?"
Li Meng replied: "No, Lujiazui, Shanghai Materials Trading, Shanghai-Hong Kong Group, Pudong Jinqiao, Jinjiang Investment...these concept stocks related to the 'Shanghai Free Trade Zone' we have formulated have been almost gone since we first established a position to intervene. It’s been a week, but on the whole market, except for the traces of our capital intervention, basically... no other main funds have been found, Mr. Su... Regarding this news..."
Li Meng kept thinking in his mind.
Regarding the major strategic news about the country's macroeconomic layout of the "Shanghai Free Trade Zone", small private equity institutions like them can get some rumors in advance, so... all institutions in the country must have received this kind of news. If there is news, naturally there will be big financial institutions making the same layout and choices as them.
But now... the development of things doesn't seem to be like this.
They have been involved for a week, but all the main funds in the entire market have not shown any trace of attention or involvement in the main line of the 'Shanghai Free Trade Zone'.
This made Li Meng seriously doubt that the news Su Yu got was a pure rumor.
"It's okay, just wait patiently." Su Yu said, "We are still half a month away from August. Whether the news is true or false will become clearer when the time comes to fulfill it. Now... no need Don’t worry, just continue to implement the investment strategy we originally formulated.”
"Okay!" Li Meng didn't say anything when he saw Su Yu insisting.
"Have the positions of each stock been completed now?" Su Yu stared at Waigaoqiao, who was still following the fluctuations of the index, and continued to ask.
Li Meng replied: "The three checks of Lujiazui, Shanghai Materials Trading, and Shanghai-Hong Kong Group have established positions of 50 million each. Pudong Jinqiao and Jinjiang Investment have established positions of 30 million each, adding a total of 210 million new positions. , excluding your newly established positions, the overall position line of the fund is already close to full position.”
"Okay!" Su Yu replied, "I won't rush to add more to the remaining funds."
"Yeah." Li Meng responded, staring closely at the market and doing intraday trading operations, and no longer continued to increase his position in "Shanghai Free Trade Zone" related concept stocks.
Su Yu set his sights on three stocks: Shanghai Steel Union, Jincheng Fenjiu, and Waigaoqiao.
Looking at the three stocks in his account, with a total of 120 million in holdings and more than 30 million in cash left, he did not make any moves.
He was waiting, waiting for a new market opportunity to appear.
Then he used the chips in his hands to launch a sniper attack on the main holdings of Jingda Investment, a private equity institution.
In his patient waiting and observation.
At 3 o'clock in the afternoon, the Shanghai Composite Index finally returned to the 2030 point mark, and the ChiNext Index rose again by more than 3%, returning to 1100 points. Among them, many core component stocks such as Netspeed Technology, Fenda Technology, LeTV, and Oriental Fortune... rose by more than 5%, and several of them set a new high in the previous rebound, breaking history.
Among the stocks that Su Yu is concerned about…
After the Shanghai Steel Union broke through the ceiling and floor, and then encountered two consecutive limit downs, after several days of sluggish adjustment, it finally avenged its previous shame today and reached the daily limit, closing at 21.73 yuan; Jincheng Fenjiu’s share price closed at 13.36 yuan, an increase of 2.13%, which is similar to the increase of the Shanghai Composite Index. The trading volume is still sluggish, and the daily turnover is only more than 70 million; Waigaoqiao’s share price closed at 13.15 yuan, and the increase is also similar to the increase of the Shanghai Composite Index. It has no independent trend, and the daily turnover is also sluggish. There is no sign of attack from other major funds.
After the closing, at 5 pm
Before the new Dragon and Tiger list was released, Jincheng Fenjiu, which Su Yu followed and held more than 40 million yuan, released its semi-annual performance report. According to the report, the company's performance declined compared with the previous year when the entire liquor industry encountered the "plasticizer" crisis, but the company also stated in the report that this impact was temporary. In the second half of the year, after the "plasticizer" crisis subsided, the performance would definitely improve.
Facing such a report... Su Yu was delighted.
Of course, his joy was not because he felt that the fundamentals of Jincheng Fenjiu had improved and the stock price had an expected reversal, but because he felt that this not-so-bad report was enough to give Jingda Investment, which was heavily invested in it, a little hope, so as not to cut positions and exit, and it would be more conducive for him to use this stock to snipe Jingda Investment, a private equity institution.
After the "plasticizer" crisis, after more than half a year of decline
The valuation of the entire liquor sector is actually quite low. For example, the leading liquor stock of Qianzhou Moutai has fallen to less than 15 times the PE. According to the profit and dividend calculation of last year, even if the profit does not grow, the dividend rate is already greater than 5%, which can be regarded as undervalued.
But Su Yu knows that when the market expectations, that is, the fundamentals of the industry, completely change and deteriorate.
In fact, the underestimation of stock prices is a valuation trap.
He knows that in the future, with the further tightening of "three public consumptions", with the general implementation of "drunk driving into criminal law", and with the impact of the "plasticizer" crisis, the performance of the liquor sector will continue to be under pressure, and because the entire market funds subconsciously avoid the liquor sector, the current 15 times PE liquor sector, the valuation will continue to be compressed, and even many third-, fourth-, and fifth-tier liquor brands have suffered a series of losses and are on the verge of delisting.
Under this future expectation...
The liquor consumption sector, which seems to be seriously undervalued at present, is a complete investment trap no matter how excellent its current performance is.
After the release of Jincheng Fenjiu's semi-annual performance report, in the discussion of the entire market, the main fund core managers within Jingda Investment, which holds a large position in this stock, also had a relatively intense discussion.
In the end, everyone unified their opinions.
It is said that the valuation of Jincheng Fenjiu has dropped to 12 times PE, and its profitability is not bad. The impact of the "plasticizer" crisis is also slowly dissipating. The stock price has no room for decline, and it is decided to continue holding positions, waiting for the simultaneous reversal of performance and stock price.
Two hours after Jincheng Fenjiu announced its semi-annual performance report, that is, at 7 pm.
In the mood that everyone is enthusiastically discussing the doubling of performance of Netspeed Technology, Fenda Technology, Huaqingbao, and Changqu Technology, and the future is promising, Waigaoqiao, Shanghai-Hong Kong Group, Shanghai Steel Union and other stocks also released their semi-annual performance reports.
It's just different from the beautiful financial reports of Netspeed Technology, Fenda Technology, Huaqingbao, and Changqu Technology.
The semi-annual performance of Waigaoqiao, Shanghai-Hong Kong Group, and Shanghai Steel Union is terrible, and it has declined a lot compared with last year.
Of course, the financial report of Shanghai Steel Union was the most discussed with the highest enthusiasm and passion. After all, this report has been hyped by market hot money over the past month and a half, and its trend has been either limit up or limit down. Compared with the lowest point in May, it has increased by almost 1.5 times. Both its popularity and heat are extremely high.