Two Thousand Three Hundred and Forty-Three Infinite Possibilities

"Boyhood" vs "The Grand Budapest Hotel".

"Boyhood" vs "Birdman".

"Birdman" vs "Breaking Drummer".

The 2014 awards season has experienced a long journey with ups and downs and twists and turns. Everyone thought that the Oscars would be a competition between "Boyhood" and "Birdman", but quietly, the second stage never stood still. The "popping drummer" who was on the cusp but firmly refused to be left behind completely changed the pattern.

Notably, in 2009 the Academy revised the voting rules for Best Picture.

Previously, each academy judge only needed to choose one best film, and one of the five nominated works, which also allowed popular works to often win strongly. The accident of "Saving Private Ryan" and "Brokeback Mountain" It became more and more shocking to encounter an upset.

Since then, each academy judge is required to rank all nominated films, from first to last, and the detailed rules for counting votes have also been changed. If a nominated film receives more than 50 percent of the votes No. 1 approval rating, then this work wins Best Picture.

But what if not? Then there will be a second round of counting. Let's expand on the assumptions and be more specific with the eight works on this year's nominee list.

Suppose, in the first round of ballots, the work that chose "Selma March" as the first place has the lowest support rate, then "Selma March" will be out, and those who choose "Selma March" will be voted Think of second place as first, see if it's "Boyhood" or "Birdman," etc., then recalculate it with the rest of the votes.

And so on and so on, until the "first place approval rate" of a work exceeds 50%, and it ends, and the best picture stands out.

The crux of the new rule change is that while the first place may be different for each judge, the "best" choices for second and third place can carry more weight, which also makes the awards. The top-seeded player in the season may fall if he is not careful, and the best picture will be unexpectedly possible.

This year is the best model.

"Boyhood", "The Grand Budapest Hotel", "Birdman" and "Booming Drummer", the fierce competition is inseparable, it is difficult to tell who is the first, then the second in the votes And third place will grab more advantages.

For example, the black judges who chose "Selma Parade" as the first place, what is the second place in their minds? After the "Selma Parade" was out,

Which work will their votes go to?

For another example, which of the minority groups who put "The Imitation Game" at No. 1 will win the No. 2 or No. 3 position on their votes?

This is the real mystery of the academy's public relations. The "top seed" who is leading the way is certainly beautiful, but the second and third seeds are not to be underestimated. possible.

Two years ago, Ann-Lee won Best Director for the second time with "The Fantastic Drifting of Pi". The mentality of the judges is very similar. Steven Spielberg of "Lincoln" and Ben Affleck of "Escape from Tehran" were killed in the dark, and all the votes went to "third place" An- plum.

Tonight, too.

In the second stage of the awards season, the "Boyhood" and "Birdman", which were slaughtered in the dark, have extremely fierce competition with the bayonet, especially the "Birdman"'s counterattack all the way, which really threatened the number one of the "Boyhood". The position of the seed, followed by the "popping drummer" who was chasing after him, also quietly took the position.

Judging from the distribution of awards so far, "The Grand Budapest Hotel" is empty-handed in terms of major awards, and "Boyhood" has only won one Best Supporting Actress award. Even if there is a possibility of upset, it is already very slim, and all eyes are on the contrary. It's focused on "Boom Drummer" and "Birdman".

"Birdman", Best Original Screenplay, Best Cinematography, Best Director.

"Breaking Drummer," Best Adapted Screenplay, Best Editing, Best Actor, Best Supporting Actor, Best Sound Effects.

In terms of quantity and quality, "Boom Drummer" is superior; more importantly, the main department and technical department are blooming on both sides, and "Boom Drummer" seems to have more "champion appearance" in every aspect.

A golden man for best actor changed the whole award ceremony, not to mention old foxes like the Weinstein Brothers, and even a layman like Jake Gyllenhaal who had no interest in academy public relations. You can smell subtle changes in the atmosphere and situation.

So what is there to stop the Popping Drummer from reaching the top at this point? A few clues can be seen in the second stage of academy public relations:

Tradition.

After all, the American Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences is a group of white old men with an average age of over sixty years old. Their aesthetics and ideas are more experienced and more traditional, and even stubborn.

Back then, they could refuse to watch "Brokeback Mountain" and chose "Crash" in a blind way, brewing one of the biggest beads in Oscar history; back then, they could also give up the aggressive "social network" and chose to be safe and sound "The King's Speech", which is still sighed by countless people to this day.

Then, between the current "Birdman" and "Boom Drummer", they can also give up the latter and choose the former.

"Booming Drummer" tells the ultimate and crazy pursuit of artistic perfection, but every aspect and corner is provoking the dominance of traditional authority. Minutes are challenging the conservative bottom line of the academy judges.

And Andrew's madness and darkness in the story is not ready to please the audience from the beginning, and it is always stimulating the audience's acceptance, from hurting his family to abandoning his girlfriend, the image of "no madness can't live", deeply rooted in the hearts of the people. Even though he is artistically perfect, he is not a "good man" morally.

But in comparison, the innovation of "Birdman" comes from camera scheduling and rhythm control. Although it is bold but acceptable, the core of the story is still Hollywood's favorite: the artist who has fallen to the bottom refuses to surrender and is constantly looking for a career. The transformation of his career, even if he is abandoned, he continues to struggle. That kind of indomitable spirit is the favorite of the judges of traditional colleges. "Although I can't see you and the industry has abandoned you, you still deeply love this industry. ."

Michael Keaton's identity as a birdman corresponds to Batman, which breaks the boundary between reality and fantasy, and allows the subtle interaction between film and play to show another level of artistic creation. Falsehood comes from life but is higher than life, who can refuse it?

Tradition or conservative, this is the biggest shackle that restricts "Boom Drummer" from defeating "Birdman".

But... Renly Hall reversed and defeated Eddie Medrain and Michael Keaton, winning two Oscar winners, which also became the biggest variable of tonight's awards ceremony.

No one can be sure how many judges selected "Booming Drummer" as the best film when selecting the best actor; or, how many judges were selecting "Boyhood" or "The Grand Budapest Hotel" After winning the first place for the best picture, "Boom Drummer" was selected as the second and third place.

uncertain.

do not know.

unpredictable.

After the announcement of the best actor at the peak of the suspense at the 87th Academy Awards, the best film that was originally lacking in novelty and unattractive suddenly became exciting.

When Renly and Kate left the stage hand in hand, the audience gradually recovered, and then the mood became subtle and strange.

The Weinstein brothers' positions were reversed.

Bob's old god is there and his mind is calm. No matter who gets to the top of the Oscar, he can accept it calmly. If the "Boom Drummer" really counterattacks to the top, he doesn't think it's the end of the world. On the contrary, he can give Ha Wei a lesson, let Harvey sober up, it would be better.

Of course, watching Harvey deflate was another treat.

Harvey, on the other hand, seemed a little dissociated, and his uncertain expression made it difficult to tell what he was thinking, but the mixed emotions made him lose his sense of normalcy.

to start self-doubt.

Is his strategy wrong? One wrong step, one wrong step, and then the whole game is lost?

Do not!

impossible!

How could he be wrong? How could he be confused? Absolutely impossible!

So, how did the current situation come about? Could it be... a traitor? There was a ghost inside Weinstein Pictures, which caused them to fail to receive the news in time, and made a wrong judgment on the format of the awards season, which eventually led to repeated accidents at the awards ceremony.

First "The Imitation Game" misses the script adaptation, then "The Theory of Everything" misses the male lead...

Yes! It sure is!

Out of the corner of his eye, Harvey drifted towards Bob, the jumble of thoughts in his head so much that he completely ignored Neil Patrick Harris, who was on stage, and the awards ceremony seemed to have nothing to do with it.

Harvey should be the only distracted guest in the audience. All the other audience's eyes fell on Neil. This is his last appearance tonight.

"There is still one last award to be announced, and the much-anticipated envelope is about to be opened: my 'Oscar prediction'!"

Neil's string of remarks made all the guests chuckle: It turns out that the magic in the first half has to run through the audience, and is it waiting to be revealed now?

"For the record, on Thursday, I handed over my predictions to PricewaterhouseCoopers, and they assured me that they would help me guard my predictions until the truth came out. Now, here comes the truth. Brian Coo Brain-cullinan, where's the key?"

Neil got the keys from Bryan of PricewaterhouseCoopers.

At this time, Renly was finally "released" by the reporters and returned to the waiting room, but it was too late to return to his seat, so he waited for the final result in the waiting room, when he saw Brian Cullinan appearing on the stage , The smile couldn't help but rise. It was him, the guy who created the "La La Land" and "Moonlight Boy" on this stage two years later.