Chapter 1128: The Confidence to Blackmail
Chapter 1128 The confidence of blackmail
Facts over the past decade have proved that direct investment by Japanese companies in China is conducive to promoting the growth of trade between the two countries. The expansion of Huaxia's exports to Dongyang has benefited to a considerable extent from the investment of Japanese companies in China, which is the inevitable result of the complementary advantages and mutually beneficial cooperation between the two sides.
With this result, the streets of Dongyang are full of cheap goods produced by Huaxia, such as shoes, socks, clothes, hats, chopsticks, coal, food, vegetables, etc. Most of them are low value-added products, but they are related to the lives of the people of Dongyang.
However, although the economic and trade relations between the two countries have continued to develop and have reached a considerable scale, the heat of economic and trade between the two countries has declined in recent years, mainly reflected in the following aspects.
The first is trade. In 2009, the trade between the two countries grew by 12.5% year-on-year. This is the 12th consecutive year that the growth of bilateral trade has been lower than the average growth rate of China's foreign trade. The proportion of China's foreign trade has also dropped from the high point of 24% in 1994 to 11.8%, 12.2 percentage points lower than the high point, indicating that the closeness of trade between the two countries has dropped significantly. In recent years, there have been many problems in the political relations between the two countries, which can be said to have affected the development of bilateral economic and trade relations to a certain extent, but it cannot be said that there is a direct causal relationship with the changes in political relations.
From the perspective of China, the importance of Japan as China's main trading partner is decreasing, but from the perspective of Japan, Japan's trade with China and Hong Kong has exceeded the scale of Japan's trade with the United States. China has become Japan's largest trading partner, indicating that the current trade between the two countries is still heating up.
The reason for this difference between the two countries is that the market size of Japan is not as large as that of the United States and the European Union, and the room for growth is relatively small; second, the proportion of China's exports to Japan in China's total exports has declined more. Under the circumstances where all countries generally attach importance to exports, the importance of Japan's market to China has declined more significantly, while the importance of China's market to Japan is increasing rapidly.
The second is investment. In 2009, the contract amount and actual amount of investment by Japanese companies in China both showed an upward trend. It should be said that the foundation for the growth of Japanese companies' investment in China is still relatively solid. However, judging from the growth rate, the enthusiasm of Japanese investment in China has weakened. The reason is that the Japanese government and companies believe that there are certain risks in China's economic development. The "White Paper on Trade" published by the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry of Japan pointed out that there are risks in China's economic development, such as structural problems, further widening of urban-rural differences, further increase in urban unemployment, and serious shortages of electricity and water resources and environmental pollution. The opinions issued by the Japanese government departments will have a certain impact on the investment decisions of enterprises. Second, other East Asian countries have dispersed the direction of foreign investment of Japanese enterprises. In addition, Brazil, Russia, India, South Africa and other countries are not only emerging markets, but also have rich resources, becoming the candidate places recommended by the Japanese government to enterprises to diversify investment risks. Third, the domestic economic situation in Japan has improved, and some enterprises have transferred some overseas investment projects with high added value back to Japan. Under the joint action of these factors, the growth rate of Japanese investment in China has been affected to a certain extent.
The third is government funding cooperation. In recent years, the financial cooperation between the two governments has decreased significantly. The Japanese government has been more stringent in reviewing the loan projects it provides, and the amount has been greatly reduced. In comparison, the funds provided by the Japanese government to Vietnam and India for economic assistance have exceeded those of China, and continue to increase. Former Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro once publicly stated that China has achieved remarkable economic development and can graduate from the list of Japanese government funding cooperation. This has caused the temperature of the two governments' financial cooperation to drop sharply since 2005. The Dongyang government has basically stopped providing government loans, grants, and technical cooperation in 2008. Therefore, it is an indisputable fact that the relationship between the two sides has cooled in the field of government funding cooperation.
The fourth is energy cooperation. In recent years, with the rapid development of China's economy, China has a huge actual and potential demand for energy. Energy conservation and environmental protection have become major issues in China, Asia, and even the world. Dongyang has advanced energy-saving and environmental protection technologies, which are in a leading position even among developed countries. If they are promoted and applied to China, they can make great contributions to the sustainable and coordinated development of China's economy and even the balance of world energy supply and demand. But so far, the cooperation between the two countries in the field of energy has mostly remained verbal, and there are very few projects that are truly implemented in action and have practical effects.
However, since the first half of 2010, Dongyang's economy has once again entered a new round of recession. Affected by its population and land area, it is impossible for Dongyang's economy to get out of recession by relying on personal consumption. At this time, the current government of Japan began to increase consumption tax in order to solve the problem of pension debt, which has a greater restrictive effect on personal consumption in Japan. It is unlikely to stimulate economic recovery by corporate investment, because Japanese companies have been reducing excess equipment, dealing with excess investment and improving corporate financial debt burdens throughout the 1990s. Therefore, Japanese companies will never make the mistake of blind investment again. Companies will only make investment decisions when they can fully see clear returns on investment. In Japan, there are not many places where public investment can make a difference.
Therefore, Japan must rely on external demand to drive economic recovery. Since 2003, China has replaced the United States in playing the role of external demand. In the future, Japan's economic recovery will inevitably rely on China's factors.
As we all know, the trade friction between Japan and the United States has a long history, a wide range of areas, and intense intensity. One of the measures taken by the Japanese government to resolve its trade friction with the United States is to tolerate the appreciation of the Japanese currency and guide Japanese companies to develop overseas. If Japan has the largest automobile trade surplus with the United States, it will guide domestic automobile companies to invest in the United States. In this way, the export of complete vehicles to rice becomes the export of auto parts and equipment.
However, the United States is a place with the highest manufacturing costs in the world. High-tech companies such as automobiles can still afford the production costs in America, but it is impossible for a large number of labor-intensive product manufacturing and labor-intensive processing factories to survive in the United States, while China's It has become a place for the rebirth of foreign-oriented companies in Japan after the appreciation of the Japanese currency.
Japanese companies investing in China or developing processing trade can also drive the export of used equipment (Note: Generally speaking, Japanese companies have high technical levels, and even used equipment can still meet the requirements of my country's customs commodity inspection), driving local retail sales. After parts and raw materials are exported and manufactured in China, they are sold in three directions: one is to the local area; the other is to a third place; and the third is to sell back to the home country. Since my country's processing trade policy is the loosest in the world and the standards for issuance of certificates of origin are extremely low, a large number of Japanese companies use this policy to process and export to third places in China and develop roundabout trade.
It is understood that the exports of investment enterprises established by Japanese companies in my country to third places account for approximately 20% of their sales, while the processing trade operated by Japanese companies in my country exports to third places on a larger scale.
What is even more ironic is that Huaxia has now become a "safe haven" and a regeneration base for Japanese companies to avoid trade frictions. Today, Huaxia is burdened with the "reputation" of a huge trade surplus and has only received a small part of the benefits, the vast majority of which Part of the benefits actually belong to Japanese companies, and it also becomes one of the factors that puts pressure on the United States to pressure the appreciation of the renminbi.
According to an analysis by Keiho Bank Research Institute, a well-known research institution in Japan, in the forecast that Japan's economy will grow at an average annual rate of 1.91% until 2010, the investment and establishment of enterprises in China by Japanese companies and the development of processing trade will drive Japan's exports. Japan's economy grew by 0.8 percentage points. It can be seen that the role of the Huaxia Kingdom is very significant. In other words, without the role of China, Japan's economy could only maintain a growth rate of 1.11%, and would return to the long-term economic downturn of the 1990s.
In short, through the above analysis, we can clearly understand that: it was Huaxia that allowed Dongyang to get out of the crisis and the plight of failure, it was Huaxia that allowed Dongyang to end an era of failure, and it was Huaxia that allowed Dongyang to regain its confidence. It was the Huaxia Kingdom that allowed the Oriental Kingdom to successfully enter a new era of development. Today's Eastern economy's dependence on Chinese factors is no longer dispensable, but a key factor that can influence major changes in its economy.
Therefore, this time, due to the dispute between the two countries, China has closed official communication channels, reduced the exports of its own companies to Japan, and restricted the import of certain commodities. It is simply a silent thunder, which has caused chaos within Japan. They felt tremendous pressure, and the emergence of Zhao Jianhui's opportunity made some people of insight feel that they had found a turning point, and sent people from Jiwei to Xichuan Province to pursue this change.
After Zhao Jianhui understood this situation, he analyzed the long-term relationship between the two countries and concluded that the two countries were far from the point where they would never have contact with each other, so he told Zhang Huaiqiang that this was a great opportunity to extort money.
But now Masao Oda came to complain, Zhao Jianhui only gave him verbal comfort, and said to Masao Oda, he is the second in command in this land, and Zhang Huaiqiang has the final say.
"Your Excellency, Governor, I also know the system of your country, but we are the guests you invited. No matter what, we have to put it aside." Oda Masao stood up and bowed deeply to Zhao Jianhui.
Zhao Jianhui smiled bitterly and said: "Your Excellency Oda, I understand your mood very well, but I also ask you to understand my difficulties. I will speak for you if I can speak, but you also know that I will go to Beijing soon. I’m going to attend a very important meeting, but I’m afraid I don’t have the time and it’s not convenient for me to participate too much…”
"Your Excellency, Governor, are you referring to your party's congress? At this meeting, will you take a step forward?" Oda Masao asked. Zhao Jianhui laughed: "Your Excellency Oda, this is a secret within our party. You shouldn't ask this question."
Looking at Zhao Jianhui's smile, Oda Masao nodded and said: "I understand, please forgive me for being reckless. I have no intention of exploring the secrets that the governor talked about. I am just caring...about the governor as a friend." It’s just a problem.”
"Haha, luckily I understand this. Otherwise, based on what you said just now, I could arrest you for espionage." Zhao Jianhui smiled and waved his hand, his half-truth and half-false words Masao Oda was stunned for a moment.
However, Masao Oda seemed to have gotten the answer he needed. He stood up and left happily.