Chapter 15 Trip to the Soviet Union (3)

When Comrade Bukharin had not yet figured out how much foreign exchange the Soviet Union would lose in the case of a sharp increase in crude oil supply, the New York OTC spot market had already set off a huge wave.

In fact, the intelligence obtained by the Cheka was delayed. As early as 5 days ago, the exploration team had confirmed the discovery of the oil field and reported it to the United States and the United Group. 2 days ago, the news formed a consensus in the circle, and then the press conference. In this short period of time, the circulation of the OTC spot market increased wildly, and a large number of positions were used for mutual competition, but it was obvious that the shorts had the upper hand.

There is no standard crude oil futures market in the world now, but with the gradual popularity of securities trading, the OTC spot market has also developed rapidly. This kind of OTC market is large and small. The large one may be jointly established by several consortiums through fund management companies and investment banks, the small one may be some capital management companies, and the smaller one may be a bar owner. In order to provide fun for the dull bar during the daytime, these owners usually launch a variety of ingenious trading objects. It is called flexible trading, but in fact it is almost the same as gambling: for example, you bet that the stock price of General Motors will fall in that range at 10 o'clock, and then set different odds for different ranges. If you like it, you can go to the counter to place a bet. Usually, there will be a definite quote 5-8 minutes after 10 o'clock. The bosses with conscience and more caution will make a profit through carefully arranged odds, and the bosses with bad conscience and courage will dare to bet directly with the gamblers. After all, it is a business with no capital. If you win, you can just eat it. If you lose, you can run away.

Contini asked the United Group to bet on the large over-the-counter market. In fact, his opponents were all oil spot players in the circle. It was difficult for them to understand the reason for large-scale short bets. Now the economies of the United States and Europe are recovering and showing a thriving scene. More and more cars and ships are being produced, all of which consume oil. Now, let alone the navy, even ordinary civilian cargo ships have begun to fuel oil. With the extensive and in-depth scientific research, more scientists have realized the importance of petrochemicals. These are all reasons for future price increases. Why are there still people betting on a decline in the forward market? From the technical chart, crude oil is also in a bullish trend. Going against the trend is clearly a foolish act.

The discovery of a large oil field in Algeria by the United Group gave this blind optimism a resounding slap in the face. As local giants such as Standard Oil took the opportunity to intervene and suppress it, the price of the forward spot market fell rapidly. The price of crude oil scheduled for delivery in June 1926 fell rapidly from US$1.39 to US$1.14, a drop of nearly 20% in a week. In order to attract more attention, the margin of the over-the-counter spot market is set relatively low, but 5%, in other words, a 5% drop is enough to blow up the position. No matter whether they have added margin in the middle, the result is only one position blow up!

Of course, there are also some speculative bulls who are unwilling to admit defeat, thinking that even if a large oil field is discovered, what does it matter? Will large-scale oil be produced in June next year? This is clearly an irrational suppression of market panic. As long as they can survive this panic period, they still have the hope of recovering their investment or even turning over. So far, the United Group has held more than 40,000 short orders (1,000 barrels each), and according to the standard of an average profit of $200 per order, it has already made a floating profit of $8 million.

These arrangements were gradually accumulated after Contini ordered the oil field exploration team to transfer to Algeria, which was much earlier and calmer than the New York Oil Company and others who arranged short positions after receiving accurate intelligence. The purpose of Contini's negotiations with the Soviets today was to lock in the victory with a final word!

The negotiations went very smoothly. After only two hours of negotiations in the morning, Italy and the Soviet Union signed a package of barter trade contracts: Italy exported and guided the full set of Caracciolo-class technology, priced at $3 million; purchased vehicles, motorcycles and aircraft worth more than $2 million from the United Group, Fiat Group, etc., and authorized the Soviet Union to produce; purchased machine tools and complete sets of industrial equipment worth more than $15 million from the United Group; the total amount was as high as more than $20 million.

The United Group promised to buy 12 million barrels of Baku crude oil from the Soviet Union (FOB price of $1.02), 3 million tons of crude steel or rails produced according to Italy's requirements, and other transactions such as aluminum ingots and wheat.

Overall, Italy's industrial products and equipment are priced according to international levels, and the Soviet Union's industrial and agricultural products are 15-20% lower than the international market. However, since the round-trip freight is actually borne by the United Group, the actual difference profit is only about 10%. Considering the market price fluctuation risk that the United Group has to bear, this pricing is considered to be relatively fair.

When the package agreement on economic cooperation between Italy and the Soviet Union was made public (hiding the military technology transferred by Italy to the Soviet Union, it only looked like the United Group's purchase of raw materials from the Soviet Union), the New York oil bulls finally realized that the general situation was gone and there was no way to turn the tide.

Obviously, the 12 million barrels of oil imported from the Soviet Union will soon be released to Europe, which will immediately squeeze the market for US crude oil. Coupled with the output of Algerian and Libyan crude oil, they finally realized such a terrible reality that the oil supply in the next year may be excessive. Crude oil prices have a characteristic: the price is not determined based on mainstream users, but is priced based on the production that is in short supply or in excess. Although the market has expanded, it cannot keep up with the sharp increase in supply. Therefore, the amount of crude oil in the United States will inevitably be in excess next year, which determines the avalanche of the over-the-counter market.

So a few days later, the over-the-counter market reacted with a bull stampede, and everyone fled, quickly forming a situation where many killed many. When the price was at its lowest, it even reached below 1 US dollar/barrel. United Group, Standard Oil, etc. The industrial giants are making a lot of money and smiling from ear to ear. Of course, this is a story for later, let’s not mention it for now.

With this agreement as the basis, Stalin held a grand welcome banquet for Contini, Ada and his party in the evening. In addition to him, several members of the Politburo were present, including Bukharin, Kamenev, Zinoviev and others, in the toast, Stalin not only sang praises for the friendship between Italy and the Soviet Union, but also praised the 22-year-old Contini as an outstanding young thinker, politician, and entrepreneur, and praised him at the dock. "I deeply agree with, deeply inspire, and deeply honor" the behavior of calling himself "comrade", and deliberately led the conversation to hear his views on the theoretical point of "building socialism in one country".

As soon as this sentence came out, Bukharin and others all looked at Contini intently, wanting to hear what he had to say. Contini knew that this theory was the focus of internal debate among the Bolsheviks, and he also knew that Comrade Steel had an important role in history. With this achievement, and with this confidence, he spoke very freely and freely:

"In fact, the concerns and hostility of various countries towards the Soviet regime depend first on whether the Soviets will export revolution. If your country can give up the idea of ​​exporting revolution and focus on domestic construction, I believe that the international community's misunderstanding and hostility towards your country will quickly decrease. , so I think whether it can be built or not, first of all, it is a good choice to focus the energy from the outside to the inside; secondly, I have always had this view, different doctrines are suitable for different countries and different historical stages, and they cannot be applied universally. Policies that are universally applicable. For example, your country believes that only the Bolsheviks can save the Soviets, our country believes that only the Fascists can save Italy, and Americans believe that liberalism can only adapt to the national conditions of the United States. To some extent, they may all be true, and they are all correct; again, To prove whether a theory is correct or not, we do not rely on excerpts from the classic works of our predecessors, but on a comprehensive judgment based on the national situation and the international strategic situation... Revolutionary theories without proof cannot be exported to the outside world. How can they cause other problems? Where is the country’s resonance and approval?”

Contini paused and added: "Actually, I studied Marxism in school and compared the similarities and differences between Leninism and Marxism. Mr. Lenin believed that revolution could occur in a weak country like Russia, and Marx Mr. Lenin believes that socialist revolution will first occur in countries with highly developed capitalism. Taken purely literally, Mr. Lenin’s views are deviant, but he succeeded. This shows that he made practical adjustments based on specific practice. Can we say that this kind of adjustment is a departure from Marxism? Obviously not! In the same way, I think the concept of building socialism in one country proposed by Comrade Stalin is sublimated and developed on the basis of Leninism, and it is the application of Leninism in national construction in the new era. , social development, economic and people's livelihood and other aspects. Although Mr. Lenin unfortunately passed away last year, the legacy he left can be inherited and developed. The important thing is to understand the essence and not to pick out words, otherwise every little problem in national governance will be Is it too demanding to look for answers from the words mentioned by Lenin or Marx? How do they know that the world will undergo such earth-shaking changes? There are differences in the inheritance, Mr. Gramsci of Italy (Italy) Communist leaders) obviously hold different views from the Russian Bolsheviks, so seeking common ground while reserving differences is the best option.”

After hearing the translation, Stalin was the first to applaud, and then others followed suit. He looked at the other comrades around him, as if to say: You see, even Italians know that I am the successor of Leninism and the founder of Leninism. The useful exploration in the new era shows that "building socialism in one country" has a sufficient and solid theoretical foundation. But his applause was enthusiastic and loud, while the applause of several other opponents was somewhat reluctant.

Contini smiled and added without hesitation: "In fact, it is easy to test whether the theory is correct. In the past three years since the leader came to power, Italy has undergone earth-shaking changes. The Italian people all know the importance of the three flags. Your country will implement In the past few years due to the New Economic Policy, I believe you all know whether the domestic situation has worsened or improved compared to previous years.”