Chapter 533 The First Hand and the Third Chapter The Choice of the Tsar

St. Petersburg, after the full-blown agricultural crisis, became the center of the storm.

European public opinion has accused the Russians of deliberately creating an agricultural crisis, trying to take the opportunity to overwhelm the European agricultural production system and monopolize the European food supply.

This statement is also correct. The tsarist government did have this plan, but before it could be implemented, the agricultural crisis broke out.

Agriculture is the most difficult industry to monopolize. There are hardly any thresholds, and anyone can farm. Land suitable for cultivation is everywhere these days, and no colonial empire needs to be controlled by others.

The tsarist government has the heart to monopolize the European food supply, but has no ability to implement it. Russia's agricultural production costs are not dominant, and it is almost impossible to win the competition.

Facing the overwhelming accusations of public opinion, Alexander II decisively chose to ignore it. Anyway, in continental Europe, the tsarist government has been scolded all the time, and he is used to it.

Public opinion can be ignored, but the reactions of European governments cannot help Alexander II not worry.

As of April 1873, a number of politicians had publicly stated that they would impose tariffs on imported agricultural products to protect their own agriculture.

All the import tariffs on agricultural products are added together. Behind the seemingly fairness, there is actually a strong maliciousness.

At present, among the four major exporters of agricultural products in Europe, the Kingdom of Prussia occupies the smallest market share and suffers the least impact.

The second-to-last kingdom of Poland is now mired in an internal struggle, and no matter how bad the situation gets, it won't get any worse.

Although the Russian Empire ranks second in terms of total exports, in this volume, they are still the leader.

Austria has the largest total export value. In addition to local grain processing, it also imports agricultural products from Russia and Poland for processing, most of which are supported by the added value of products.

After the outbreak of the agricultural crisis, the tsarist government also prepared to do the processing itself, leaving no chance for the Austrians to make a profit.

It is a pity that the domestic industrial strength is too weak, resulting in high processing costs and loss of competitiveness in the face of brutal market competition.

Affected by the agricultural crisis, Austrian agro-processing enterprises have cut production capacity, and the total amount of agricultural products exported from Russia to Austria has also declined, but it still accounts for more than half of the total foreign agricultural exports.

From the point of view of interests, both sides can be regarded as a loss and a prosperity. Alexander II has just received a telegram from the Austrian Association of Agricultural Producers, asking them to reduce the total amount of grain exports.

A large amount of cheap raw grains were exported to the international market and flowed directly into European countries, which was also a life-and-death battle for Austrian agro-processing enterprises.

The market competition has become more and more intense, and these processing companies will certainly not sit still. It is impossible to make a profit at a loss.

Capitalists are very shrewd, and the seemingly bland telegram is actually an ultimatum.

Capital is profit-seeking. If there is no profit in the processing of agricultural products, the capitalists will not mind immediately abandoning it.

Since 1872, savvy capitalists have been in transition. Now that the second industrial revolution is breaking out, there are still many projects that can be invested, and there is no need to hang on a tree.

If the Russians are willing to reduce the total amount of grain exports, everyone's profits will be guaranteed, and the business can continue.

Otherwise, things won't work out. Affected by the slump in grain prices, almost every grain capitalist's warehouse is full of grain, waiting for the market to pick up.

If there is no hope, everyone can only reluctantly leave. This is definitely not a good thing for the Russians. Because of the Russian-Austrian alliance, Austrian processing companies have always given priority to purchasing Russian agricultural products.

On the European continent, the situation is completely different. Under the same conditions, almost no capitalist is willing to cooperate with the Russians.

This is the sequelae of the loss of credibility, which cannot be made up in a short period of time. Russia's agricultural exports now rely on cheap prices.

The falling international grain prices were actually driven down by Russian grain exports. In order to sell the grain, they had to cut prices.

As soon as the Russians lowered their grain export prices, the market could only follow. The current international food price is the lowest point in decades, and everyone's profits have been squeezed out.

Alexander II knew the consequences of doing this, but looking at the mountains of grain, they could only sell it if they lost money.

Moreover, the definition of "losing money" cannot be generalized. The food exported is exchanged for foreign exchange, while the domestic circulation is paper rubles.

The paper rubles issued by the tsarist government were not recognized by the outside world. In international trade, gold, silver, pound sterling, Aegis, and francs are currently used the most.

The international reputation of the ruble is not as good as the krona of the Nordic Federation, nor the guilder of the Netherlands. Even the Swiss franc and the Prussian mark are more popular than the ruble.

From the perspective of national development, even if it suffers a loss, the tsarist government must obtain foreign exchange as much as possible, otherwise it will not be able to balance the trade deficit, which will lead to the outflow of gold and silver.

It’s not a solution to just keep losing money. In order to smooth the losses, the Tsarist government has devalued the ruble twice.

This is undoubtedly a heavy blow to the ruble, which has just undergone the reform of the gold standard, and has severely damaged market confidence.

It is impossible for the currency to depreciate all the time. Economists have issued a warning to Alexander II. If you continue to play like this, the market will be rotten. Let’s continue to use gold and silver as currency!

After adjusting his emotions, Alexander II: "What do you think of the telegram from the Austrian Agricultural Products Processing Enterprises Association?"

A trade association could directly send him a threat, which made Alexander II very angry. If not for no choice, he really wants to cut off the transaction between the two sides.

Of course, after thinking about it, if you really want to do it, then forget it. Without this biggest buyer, their days would be even harder.

Chancellor of the Exchequer Christan Wahl: "Your Majesty, unless countries work together to cut food exports and raise food prices, we must not cut exports.

At present, there are still a lot of unsalable agricultural products in China, especially in the newly developed Siberia region, where no one cares about local food, and the government's tax revenue is food.

The Ministry of Finance is organizing manual transportation, and if it can't be sold, these taxes are completely lost.

If there is really no way to solve the problem of unsalable grains, just use these grains to pay off foreign debts. Whether they accept it or not, we only pay with food. "

In Kristan Wahl's view, everyone can endure the default. Now that the tsarist government is willing to admit its previous debts, this is already very face-saving, and you still want to pick and choose?

Foreign Secretary Chris Basham shook his head again and again: "No, we have finally reached an agreement with various countries, and if we do this, we will immediately fall into diplomatic trouble again.

According to the prior agreement, all countries have agreed that we will use agricultural products to offset debts in batches, so there is no need to go to such extremes. "

Repayment of debts with grain is the greatest achievement of the Russian Foreign Ministry, with a total of fifteen years to repay all debts. If they paid off the debt with grain all at once, they would have solved the agricultural crisis, but the creditors couldn't bear it!

Food that cannot be sold is worthless. Chris Basham didn't want the Foreign Office's work to be ruined, and that would be a disaster for the Russian Empire as well.

If we cut production capacity, everyone tacitly did not propose it. Austria's call to cut production last year has become a joke.

In addition to Austria's own reduction in the area of ​​grain planting, the three countries of Russia, Poland and Poland just shouted slogans and introduced several laws.

When it was put into practice, it was discovered that this was not the case at all. It is impossible for the law to specify which piece of land to grow grain and which piece of land cannot be used to grow grain.

Any decree that wants to be implemented is not a one-step process. Even if the fallow law, which is widely recognized by the society, comes into effect, the officials below do not know which piece of land has been fallow and which piece of land has not been fallow.

If there is no statistics in advance, how can we talk about implementation? In the face of reality, the tacit choices of local officials will be counted from now on.

If grain is grown this year, the land should be fallow next year. Everyone's statistics are clear, and no one has anything to say.

As a result, the area of ​​grain planted in various countries has increased rather than decreased this year, and the government is also powerless. Waiting for regulation to kick in can take years.

The role of market self-regulation may be more effective than government decrees. After losing money for several years in a row, ordinary people may not necessarily reduce the area of ​​grain planting, but the nobles will definitely reduce production.

Agriculture Minister Manilov interrupted: "These two disputes are meaningless, unless the agricultural crisis is fundamentally resolved, otherwise the subsequent crisis will only get worse.

Even if the grain is forcibly thrown to the creditors, it can only cure the symptoms but not the root cause. The agricultural crisis cannot be solved within a year or two.

According to data released by the Austrian Ministry of Agriculture, if no measures are taken and the market is allowed to adjust itself, this agricultural winter may last for more than ten years.

Russia is a big agricultural country. If the agricultural crisis lasts for more than ten years, it is initially estimated that tens of millions of farmers in the country will go bankrupt because of this, and it may even be 20 million or 30 million.

The industrialization process of the empire is developing rapidly, but it is not possible to accommodate so many bankrupt people in a short time.

Our biggest problem right now is not the slow sale of domestic grains, but how to ensure that farmers do not go bankrupt on a large scale.

According to the current situation, the number of bankrupt farmers in China this year will be several times that of last year. About 50,000 to 80,000 families will go bankrupt. The agricultural crisis will continue, and this number will increase geometrically every year. "

It almost didn't say clearly: If you can't finish the food, let's go to war!

The agricultural crisis was not at the right time. If it had been a few years earlier, just in time for the Russian-Prussian War, the outcome of the war might have been rewritten.

Grey animals are worthless, and as long as they have grain in their hands, the tsarist government can carry on the war. A tsar who can feed his soldiers is already a good tsar, and all other problems can be overcome.

Don't look at the fact that the current Russian Empire seems to be a little smaller. If a war breaks out, the Russians' war potential is definitely far greater than a few years ago.

This is the benefit of having more grain. No matter how unsalable the grain is, as long as farmers don’t go bankrupt on a large scale, the problem will be manageable. To put it bluntly, when everyone is full, no one will rebel.

The agricultural crisis was so serious that the Russian peasants did not accuse the tsarist government, and the prestige of Alexander II was not damaged in the slightest.

After contemplating for a moment, Alexander II decided to surrender to reality. "Dead Daoist friends don't die poor Daoists", it is better for others to be unlucky than their own.

"The Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Vienna government have in-depth communication, and this time they will be pulled into the water at all costs."

After a failure, Alexander II's arrogance has been reduced a lot, and his actions have been restrained a lot.

This is a crisis, but also an opportunity

encounter. If the operation is good, the Russian Empire can also use the power of Austria to kill an enemy.

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