Chapter 367 Two Countries on the Brink of Bankruptcy
Vienna Palace
Foreign Minister Weisenberg said with a smile: "Your Majesty, in order to seek our support, both Prussia and Russia have offered almost the same conditions.
The Russians promised Silesia after the war as long as we supported them; Prussia promised to cede Silesia after the war as long as we remained neutral. "
The Russians' promise was generous, and the Tsarist government would not mind bribing Austria with Prussian interests.
The promise of the Berlin government was forced to do nothing, and they were unwilling to give up Silesia. To win the war, they had to stabilize Austria.
If they won the war, they could recoup all their efforts; if they lost the war, Galicia would not be able to keep it.
Although all these years have passed, the Austrians are still haunted by the Silesia region. Especially in recent years, with the increase of strength, the voice of the Vienna government to take back the Silesia region has become stronger and stronger.
Once the Kingdom of Prussia becomes weak, Austria will definitely fall down, and now the Berlin government has to stabilize Austria first.
Looking at Felix who hesitated to speak, Franz asked, "What do you think of the Prime Minister?"
Prime Minister Felix replied: "Your Majesty, neither of these is the best choice, what we need is a lose-lose situation for both Prussia and Russia.
Now our alliance with the Russians is an eyesore, and European nations are working hard to break it up. If the tsarist government continues to win, we will only have more trouble in the future.
For us, the current Russian Empire is strong enough. If the tsarist government completes internal reforms, it is difficult to say whether the Russian-Austrian alliance has any value.
Likewise, a stronger Prussian kingdom is not in our interest. Europe is too small to hold so many powerful countries. "
This is the ideal state for both Prussia and Prussia. Not only can the reform of Alexander II be interrupted by the hands of the Prussians, making the reform of the tsarist government more incomplete than in history; at the same time, it can also interrupt the ambitions of the Prussians. After this failure, they will never have a chance to rise again. .
But it is very difficult to do this, at least Franz does not think that Austria is capable of playing this balance.
The Kingdom of Prussia loses once and it is over. On the surface, the Russians can lose many times. In fact, this is very false. There are too many internal problems in the tsarist government, and Franz is not sure about their ability to bear losses.
This is different from the war in the Near East. At that time, the Russian army hit Constantinople at the gate, and all classes in the country were supporting the war. No matter how big the loss was, the tsarist government had to persevere.
Franz thought for a while and said: "There is no need for such an idealistic plan, it is easy to play and collapse, and in the end, both sides are not happy.
According to actual needs, we only need to do two things:
1. Use the Prussians to disrupt the reform of the tsarist government. As long as the Russians cannot win a victory in a short period of time, Alexander II will make concessions to the conservatives, and this reform will not be complete;
2. The Kingdom of Prussia cannot become bigger. It is enough to have a strong country in the German region. There is no need to add another competitor.
To strengthen Prussia, we can let Britain and France do it. What we have to do is to give blood to the tsarist government when necessary to strengthen their determination to fight. "
It's impossible to please both sides. If you really do that, the final result is mostly that the two sides hate each other, and you become not human inside and out.
The role of the Russian-Austrian alliance is diminishing, but until the alliance is lifted, Austria cannot openly stab the Russians.
This is related to Austria's credibility in international politics and diplomacy. A country without credibility should never try to gain everyone's respect.
Fortunately, the Prussian government was smart enough to not play any undeclared war, nor did it take the initiative to invade Russia, otherwise Austria would also be dragged into the war according to the covenant.
The current situation is that the Kingdom of Prussia has invaded Denmark, and the Russians have declared war on the Kingdom of Prussia to protect this little brother.
This situation is not within the scope of the Russian-Austrian alliance that must participate in the war.
The Kingdom of Denmark is an ally of the Russians, which does not mean that they are also an ally of Austria. The Vienna government does not need to stand with the Russians.
Chancellor of the Exchequer Karl reminded: "Your Majesty, the finances of the Tsarist government are very bad, and the Russians are slow to move, largely constrained by their financial resources.
Not long ago, the bonds issued by the tsarist government were cold in the capital market, and investors were worried that the Russians would default on their debts.
According to the analysis of the data we have, if the Russians' finances are not improved, the tsarist government may declare bankruptcy again. "
There is a regulation in the Russian-Austrian alliance: in the case of not compromising its own interests, it is obliged to provide material assistance to allies.
In theory, in this case, how can the Vienna government help? This is a matter of selectivity. However, how to support it depends on the actual situation.
Providing loans is assistance, and donating materials is also assistance. The specific situation depends on the interests.
If there is not enough profit, just grab some weapons and ammunition from the warehouse to make up the number, and you can also deal with it.
The attitude of the Chancellor of the Exchequer is very obvious, that is, the tsarist government's finances are very bad, and it is likely to go bankrupt after the war, and there is no need for Austria to jump into this pit.
Financial bankruptcy is never a new thing on the European continent. Especially the Tsarist government, which declared bankruptcy as soon as the government debt exceeded its capacity.
The bankruptcy of the government means that the payment of the previous debts is suspended indefinitely, which can also be understood as non-payment. This is what the tsarist government does
Much more, many creditors were pitted to tears.
Of course, not every country is eligible to default on its debts. In this era, there is another way to collect money - to collect debts by force.
Even if a small country declares bankruptcy, it usually only pays off personal debts, and the debts of the great powers still have to be repaid. For example, the great powers supervise their finances.
Mexico is a negative example. It dares to learn from others without strength. In 1862, President Juárez announced a moratorium on debt payments, and then French debtors came to the door.
This method is ineffective for the Russians, and no creditor has yet been able to go to St. Petersburg and ask for money. After the number of pits was over, no one in the capital market would lend money to the tsar.
Franz asked in surprise: "Have the Russians' finances deteriorated to such an extent?"
In his memory, the tsarist government's finances, though bad, were not close to collapse. Even if it is a war between Russia and Russia, it will not immediately go bankrupt.
Chancellor of the Exchequer Carl explained: "Your Majesty, in modern times, ordinary European countries will try their best to repay their debts as long as they can persevere, and few default on their debts, but the Russians are an exception.
According to past experience, the tsarist government's debts reached a certain level, they would declare bankruptcy. Recently we gathered an intelligence that the tsarist government has made a bankruptcy plan. "
Franz had nothing to say. In fact, in the Middle Ages, there were many things that the king declared bankruptcy and default, and it happened almost every few decades.
Many capitalists were pitted, and among them Jewish capitalists were pitted the most. This is because they are too rich, and most of the money is gathered in their hands. Who can they borrow money from?
Of course, there are also many kings who have been pitted. Jewish capital is hated because they often bury nails in loan contracts, and many kings who borrow money are fooled and have to pay a lot of extra interest.
Facts have proved that rule is not easy to mess with, especially in the era of monarchy, dare to deceive their money, there is a price to pay. This is how most of the anti-Semitic movement in continental Europe came about.
In modern times, the power of capital has continued to grow, and it has become less and less common for governments of various countries to default on their debts through bankruptcy, especially international loans with backgrounds from foreign powers.
It doesn't matter when everyone defaults on their debts together, anyway, the world is as black as crows. But suddenly everyone else started to follow the rules, leaving you alone to default on your bills is very prominent.
The credit of the tsarist government was ruined as soon as the creditors spread the word. Without credibility, many things are difficult to handle, and there is an embarrassing situation for the Russians to use gold and silver coins.
Franz thought for a while and said, "Then we will also tighten monetary policy externally and remind the domestic financial community to be more vigilant.
Support for the Russians is mainly in kind. All large loans to Russia must have collateral. "
This is also considered a downfall. These restrictions undoubtedly made it more difficult for the tsarist government to finance the Austrian capital market. However, as long as the tsarist government does not default on its debts, it does not matter how much collateral it puts out.
With collateral, even if the Russians declared bankruptcy, it would be impossible to relinquish these debts. After all, the value of the collateral usually exceeds the value of the loan.
Franz also had to do it. You must know that not long ago, the Tsarist government used Alaska to offset the debt of 2.57 million Aegis, and also owed a favor. The Russians would never have done this if it wasn't really unbearable.
...
When Austria was worried that the Russians would go bankrupt, the London government also faced the same problem. As the most militant country on the European continent, the Kingdom of Prussia is not a rich master.
Lending money to the Berlin government now is no less risky than lending to the Russians. War bonds issued by the Berlin government were cold in London financial markets.
If the Kingdom of Prussia wins the gamble, it may still be able to pay; if the Kingdom of Prussia loses, or loses both, the investment will be lost.
There are not many people who are optimistic about Prussia, and everyone is reluctant to take money to take risks. Even if the bond interest has been raised to 15.8% per annum, sales are still not optimistic.
As the financier of the Kingdom of Prussia, the London government naturally cannot watch this happen. Without enough money, what will the Kingdom of Prussia do to fight this war?
Chancellor Agarwal said: "The war bonds we have issued to the Prussians have so far sold only £1.869 million, which is far from being issued at £15 million.
The people didn't think they could win the war, and the bond couldn't be sold unless someone could guarantee them.
The finances of the Kingdom of Prussia are so bad that they have been running a deficit since 1848.
Many domestic financial institutions believed that the Prussian finance was on the verge of bankruptcy and refused to provide them with loans. "
It's not easy to be the gold master, this is to invest real money. The cost of the Prussian-Russian war is destined to be a huge expense, and the possibility of losing everything is still very high.
Prime Minister John Russell rubbed his forehead and said, "So, we have not raised one-fifth of the aid we promised to the Kingdom of Prussia in two months?"
According to the agreement, the British would provide a loan of 10 million pounds to the Kingdom of Prussia, and issue a war bond of 15 million pounds.
The reality is that, apart from the London government's advance of 5 million pounds to the Prussian government, no one in the capital market cares at all.
This is the aftermath of the war in the Near East. Neither Britain nor France has defeated the Russians, let alone the Kingdom of Prussia?
Even the London government does not consider the King of Prussia
country can win this war. To support them, it is only to interrupt the Russian reforms, not to count on the victory of the Prussian kingdom.
"Yes, Your Excellency. Everyone has no confidence in Prussia, so they are more cautious when investing." Chancellor of the Exchequer Agarwal replied
The British people are still very supportive of supporting the Kingdom of Prussia against the Russians, but it will be different if they have to pay.
Some newspapers in London are betting on when the Kingdom of Prussia will fail.
The most optimistic estimate is only that the Kingdom of Prussia can survive for a year and then lose the war; the most pessimistic is that the Berlin government will surrender within a month.
It is widely believed that the Kingdom of Prussia will win the war, unless Britain and France personally participate in the war, otherwise it is only a matter of time before the defeat.