Chapter 991 Promote Aegis
Everyone knows the benefits of currency hegemony, but few countries are qualified to compete. As an international trade settlement currency, at least the following basic conditions must be met:
1. The economy of the currency-issuing country must be large enough;
2. The import and export trade volume of the currency issuing country must be large enough;
3. The exchange rate of the currency itself is stable;
4. The currency-issuing country has the ability to guarantee currency payment;
5. If the currency issuing country itself is the world police.
In modern times, the British were the first to meet these basic conditions, so the pound became the earliest international currency.
It’s just that limited by communication and the low degree of economic globalization, the promotion of the British pound has not been smooth. In international settlements, everyone is still more keen to use gold and silver.
With the continuous increase of international trade volume, the pure gold and silver settlement is out of date, and the British pound has stepped onto the stage of history and become the earliest international currency.
It is a pity that at this time, Britain's economic hegemony is no longer stable, and it has been challenged by the franc and Aegis successively in the process of establishing currency hegemony.
Once an opportunity is lost, it is gone. With the passage of time, Britain gradually lost its advantages in industry and economic volume, and the pound's dream of hegemony came to an end.
Especially after the European War ended, the Holy Roman Empire was once again unified, and Aegis' strong position on the European continent was established, making it the most favorable competitor for currency hegemony.
The advantages belong to the advantages. Before the dust settles, no one can guarantee whether there will be another accident. Franz clearly remembered that there was still the Chosen Kingdom, and he was currently practicing his internal skills.
There is no way, the natural conditions of the Americans are too superior. Basically all resources are self-sufficient, even if it is divided into three, it still has the potential to become a top power.
Whether it is the United States or the Allied countries, their development potential far exceeds that of Britain, France and Spain. Especially the United States, the development potential even exceeds that of Russia.
The current defect is nothing more than the lack of population, quality and quantity, which has become an important factor restricting the economic development of the two countries.
Although Franz made preparations in advance and sent an indeterminate time bomb before the Americans could react, it was still unknown whether or when it would explode.
Franz doesn't want to pin his hopes on the unknown. Instead of waiting for the challenger to develop, it is better to use the existing advantages to determine the general trend in advance.
Once monetary hegemony is established, it is not so simple to overthrow it. Later generations of the United States have played tricks to death, making countries miserable, and the hegemony of the US dollar has not been shaken.
The reason is very simple, that is, the siphon effect. Currency hegemony brings together funds from all over the world. With money, technology develops faster and military hegemony is also consolidated.
One step at a time, one step at a time. Once the dominant position is established, just like the leader of the Internet industry, the latecomers will be overwhelmed.
Once the currency hegemony of Aegis is established, "the only one who can kill the Holy Roman Empire is the Holy Roman Empire itself."
Economic Minister Reinhardt analyzed: "Your Majesty, if you want Aegis to become an international settlement currency, then our economic model must also change.
If Aegis wants to become an international settlement currency, the biggest problem it faces is exporting. As the volume of international trade continues to increase, it is no longer enough to simply issue international loans.
In the early years, in order to reduce capital loss, we adopted a foreign trade balance model. We've run a trade surplus for the vast majority of the past forty years.
It's not that this kind of surplus is bad. In fact, in the past years, we relied on our foreign trade surplus to accumulate wealth little by little, and then we developed.
However, it is out of date to defeat the pound and make Aegis the mainstream currency in international settlements.
In terms of currency output, the British are the best learning objects. The current way of exporting the pound mainly relies on the trade deficit model of the British.
If we want to transition to a trade deficit model, we have to make a trade-off, either reducing commodity exports or increasing commodity imports.
The Ministry of Economic Affairs believes that some unimportant low-tech industries can be given up to other countries, while we focus on developing high-tech industries. "
The issue of Aegis output has been discussed many times by the Vienna government. In order to better promote Aegis, as early as 20 years ago, the Vienna government continued to issue international loans to countries all over the world.
If there is no background for exporting Aegis, no matter how politically necessary, it is impossible for a low-quality customer like the Tsarist government to borrow so much money from the empire.
However, the speed of lending out is fast, and the speed of capital return is also fast. As the world's largest industrial power, all industrial and commercial products can be found here. Most of the debtors have not warmed up after getting the money, and spend it again.
Needless to say, in this context, even if the Vienna government only wants trade balance, the final result will still be a trade surplus.
The result of the surplus was a large influx of capital, which while promoting the economic development of the empire, also hindered the development of international trade.
To put it simply, there was a large outflow of gold and silver, and the trading partners became poor and had no money to buy more goods.
If you know what you know, it is not an easy task to change the economic model. A bad operation will bring massive losses.
Now Franz understands why later generations of Americans want to play de-industrialization. Aren't industries that rely heavily on labor, pollute, and have low technology content to be abandoned?
When it was almost time to give up, people of insight suddenly discovered that the country had become hollow. However, it was too late by this time.
Competitors have developed by relying on cheap labor. If they want to restore industrialization, they can only speed up artificial intelligence research and rely on robots to compete with cheap labor.
Franz didn't know what the final result would be. Anyway, before he crossed over, artificial intelligence hadn't replaced artificial intelligence.
"Which industries is the Ministry of Economic Affairs planning to abandon?"
Abandoning some industries is inevitable, and Franz is not an idealist. How can it be possible to enjoy the dividends brought by currency hegemony without bearing the sequelae of hegemony?
It's just that what industry to give up specifically remains to be studied.
Economy Minister Reinhardt: "The industries that the Ministry of Economic Affairs plans to abandon are mainly concentrated in low-end manufacturing and non-renewable resource extraction.
Mainly include: mining industry of rare resources, textile industry, printing and dyeing industry, production of low-end clothing footwear...
Taking into account the needs of domestic economic development and employment, it is obviously unrealistic to directly shut down these industries. In the short term, the measures we have taken are to strictly approve the registration of new mining and low-end industrial enterprises.
At the same time, import tariffs on products in related fields will be reduced, and these backward production capacities will be phased out gradually through time and market competition.
If the plan goes well, in about five years, we will enter the era of trade deficits. "
Franz was relieved that there were no core industries among the industries he was about to give up. It seems that the Ministry of Economic Affairs is still qualified and knows what is the foundation of the country.
If someone in the top government really proposes to abandon the core industry, Franz will have to consider whether to overturn the table and change the way of fighting for currency hegemony.
After all, the leaders of this generation were carefully selected by him, and they are all so short-sighted, let alone future successors.
Later generations of Americans engaged in the hollowing out of industries because they saw the rapid development of artificial intelligence and could reconnect it at some point in the future, so they dared to play like that.
Because of misjudgment, the expected technological breakthrough did not happen, and everyone regretted it.
If you played like this in the 19th century, you can refer to the French in the original time and space. They did not get the currency hegemony and turned themselves from an industrial empire into a usury empire.
With the lessons learned from the past, Franz naturally dare not take it lightly.
It is also fighting for monetary hegemony, but there are two choices before the Vienna government. The one with the most lucrative income is naturally his own; the next best thing, Franz can also push the European Union to seize currency hegemony.
In a sense, the latter has a greater probability of success. These days, the power of the European Continental Union has been gathered, not to mention the British, even the whole world is not enough to see it together.
The only problem is that investing in the largest Holy Roman Empire does not yield a high rate of return, and may only get a little more now.
After contemplating for a moment, Franz shook his head: "The risks brought about by the transformation of the economic model are very great. We are different from the British. We can learn from it, but there is no need to imitate it.
In order to be on the safe side, what we can do in the short term is to reduce mining, regardless of the mines that have been developed, and strictly review the undeveloped mines.
Which minerals must be developed, which minerals can be less developed, and which minerals can not be developed for the time being, the government must have a clear mind. Do not act blindly and affect the domestic economic development.
It is best to introduce relevant natural resource laws to legally prohibit the export of mineral raw materials. Including coal and petroleum, these energy sources can also be temporarily included in the resource control list and strictly approved for export.
Strictly reviewing low-end manufacturing and reducing capital inflows is enough. The rest is left to the market to make choices. There is no need to specifically reduce tariffs. It is not beautiful to be too deliberate.
In the short term, the government can focus on pollution control, especially in local core areas, where heavy polluting enterprises in the upper reaches of lakes or rivers must be relocated or shut down. "
Comprehensive pollution control is unrealistic, not only does not have the technology, but the Vienna government does not have that much money.
However, Franz still has the confidence to make a certain degree of fine-tuning, relocate or close some heavily polluting enterprises.
Anyway, in order to promote Aegis, the Holy Roman Empire is going to gradually enter the era of trade deficits, and it just takes this opportunity to eliminate some heavily polluting industries.
In order to promote Aegis, Franz also worked hard. Even its own oil industry can be included in the resource control list.
Of course, this is also a limitation of the times. The demand for oil in the international market is not high, and the "oil-Aegis system" is even more out of the question.
Moreover, restricting oil exports is not good. On the surface, it seems that the money is earned less, but in essence it hits the competition.
As an important oil-exporting country, once the Holy Roman Empire reduces crude oil exports, international oil prices will inevitably rise.
Affected by this, the promotion and use of internal combustion engines will inevitably be affected. Now is the critical period of the second industrial revolution, once missed it will be difficult to catch up.
To kill two birds with one stone, Franz didn't mind temporarily sacrificing a little money. Anyway, the oil is buried in the ground and cannot escape.