Chapter 2513 Murphy's Law

Existence x was dragged into an endless debate by the Nuclear Bomb Buddha and could not intervene in the human world, so the human world finally developed atheism with peace of mind and eventually developed its own power step by step.

The clone of the Nuclear Bomb Buddha will travel the world as a mortal to spread his ideas and let humans cultivate into nuclear bombs. However, this will take a long time. Duran believes that the world will return to peace one day.

"We must make this world a better place without setting a framework." Duran said so.

"Yes." Tanya agreed with Duran's words very much.

The world will become better. The Empire did not make a big fuss about the attack of the Federation. It just said that this was an unauthorized action by a small group of militarists and tried to control the situation within a certain range. The Federation obviously realized that it was unlikely to defeat the Empire by relying on a strategic weapon. After all, it is not the second dimension.

Humans in the second dimension always like to use decisive weapons to decide the outcome of a battle, and this kind of decisive weapon is generally picked up by high school students, and finally let the high school students bear the responsibility of saving all mankind and reversing the unfavorable situation.

It has to be said that only small countries with limited resources would believe in this kind of final decisive weapon. It is a naive fantasy to rely on one weapon to solve the war, which is useless for big countries. In fact, the real war between countries is to compare the comprehensive strength and the endurance of the people. The value of a single decisive weapon is not great.

Unfortunately, the foundation of the second dimension is small countries with few people, so the decisive weapon has repeatedly become the key point for the second dimension to turn defeat into victory. Even high school students have to take on the responsibility of saving mankind.

But facing a country with strong comprehensive strength like the Empire, where the cohesion and organizational strength of the people are the top in the world, if the Federation still wants to take the decisive weapon to decide the outcome of the battle, it will definitely not work.

The Federation also realized that it is impossible to decide the outcome of the battle in one battle. If they go to war, they will face the absolute combat power of the Empire. The Empire and the Federation are bordering each other. If they really fight, the Federation will not be in a good situation.

So in the long run, the Federation, Hezhou, and Lexi will form a situation of strength. Now it is irrational for any two parties to go to war, and they are all making wedding clothes for others.

With the emergence of faith-based nuclear bombs and true nuclear bombs, the future peace will be very long, until a common enemy of mankind appears. Maybe it is a virus, maybe it is an alien, maybe it is the cancer of mankind, or maybe it is God. At that time, mankind may, possibly, maybe it will promote great unity.

In short, everyone can work hard in this direction.

"Everything has good and bad. We cannot expect that the good part is all ours and transfer the bad part to others. People who have such ideas will definitely suffer. What we can do is to bear the mistakes again and again and try to make everything develop in a good direction. Since we know Murphy's Law, we should cheer up and prevent Murphy's Law from appearing."

Murphy's Law, everything will develop in the bad direction. In fact, the reason for this law is that everyone has anticipated the possibility of failure before doing things, but when doing things, they are lucky, instead of eliminating errors as much as possible.

When this law was proposed, it was because NASA designed seventeen expensive devices, as long as one device was running, it would be successful, but in the end, all seventeen devices were down, and they appeared on the same unstable line. This is obviously a fluke mentality. They knew that the equipment was unstable, so they made 17 devices, but in fact they did not eliminate the root cause of instability. They just thought that the more equipment they had, the more success they would have, even if it was a small probability. But in the end, it was proved that this idea was completely self-deception.

Seventeen devices were damaged for the same reason, and the mission failed completely, so Murphy's Law was born.

But in fact, when people thought of Murphy's Law, they realized the possibility of failure, so they should try to eliminate the cause of failure, instead of replicating the possibility of failure 17 times, and finally leaving the victory or defeat to fluke mentality, which is wrong.

Some people say that this is a probability problem. The probability of a coin flipping once is 50-50, but if a coin is flipped a hundred times, the probability of the front and back sides is not 50-50 when it comes to the hundredth time.

Then this probability person will plausibly explain this reason, why it is 50-50 for one flip, but not 50-50 for a hundred flips.

The reason for 50-50 for one flip is that there is less data to understand and less information to collect. Just knowing that a coin has two sides, it is naturally 50-50.

If you toss a coin a hundred times, you will collect more data and information. The previous ninety-nine coin tosses have provided new information. It is no longer just that the coin has two sides. The characteristics of the coin have been shown through ninety-nine repeated uses. Therefore, the probability of the last time is not fifty-fifty, but is closely related to the information collected in the previous ninety-nine times. For example, if the previous ninety-nine times were all heads, then the last time may also be heads. It can even be inferred that both sides of the coin may be heads and there is no tail at all.

It is impossible to know whether both sides of the coin are all heads or all tails if you only toss it once. But after tossing it ninety-nine times, you may know. This is a probability problem. The probability results obtained when the same thing happens alone and when it happens continuously are different.

Copying a machine to seventeen times is actually a coin tossing problem. If the seventeen machines are regarded as separate events, then each machine has a fifty-fifty chance of winning or losing. No matter how many copies are made, the probability of winning cannot be increased.

But if the first sixteen have failed, then the last one can basically be sentenced to death. As a continuous whole event, as more and more machines fail, the probability of subsequent machines failing rises sharply. The more you copy, the more severe the failure.

Using probability to explain Murphy's Law will make it clearer, and it will be clearer how terrible it is to copy errors. The more errors are copied, the more it proves that humans cannot avoid this error.

Before leaving, Duran gave another popular science class to let everyone know about Murphy's Law, and explained it with probability. He summed it up in one sentence: "Don't copy errors, don't be lucky. If you realize that you may fall into Murphy's Law, you must reflect on yourself in time, correct the mistakes and then continue. Otherwise, Murphy's Law will happen."

Probability has been explained. The possibility of Murphy's Law happening is that the more events are repeated, the more likely it is to happen, so don't be lucky.

"Are you leaving?" Tanya was really reluctant, because Duran, the big backer, was really too reliable.

"Yes, why are you interested in my trip? If you like, you can come with me." Duran invited.

But Tanya refused: "I want to stay here and watch this country become prosperous and strong." She has her own choice, she wants to build her second homeland.

"Come on, Lexi is in your hands." Duran did not take away a cloud, and kept his achievements and fame hidden.