Chapter 773 Teacher Zhou's Fame

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Zhou Hao's words made all the people present, especially the experts and scholars present, change their expressions. Chief Executive Dong and others were naturally surprised by Zhou Hao's words, and at the same time they had to think deeply about the current relationship between Hong Kong and Hong Kong. Pros and cons of exchange rate regimes.

And those experts and scholars are academic leaders in this field. What Zhou Hao just said is also the conclusion of their research, but it was a joint research by them for a long time. Li Li summed up the theoretical crystallization of their painstaking efforts, which had to surprise them inexplicably.

Naturally, those present would not know that Zhou Hao was tired of hearing about the pros and cons of the "linked exchange rate system" in his previous life, but that was the experience summed up by many experts after the financial turmoil passed. It is easy, but it is the experience of those economists who have studied for a long time and based on the financial turmoil in Hong Kong and the previous Mexican currency crisis.

"The pegged exchange rate system is difficult to play its role in the financial crisis, which is easily exploited by those speculators." Zhou Hao said: "Just as Soros attacked the Hong Kong stock market in late October last year, and now they continue to sell Hong Kong dollars for For example, if they short-sell Hong Kong dollar futures in the market, the forward exchange rate risk premium of the Hong Kong dollar will immediately rise sharply, thereby driving up the interbank interest rate in the banking system. In order to severely discourage these foreign exchange speculators, the Monetary Authority tightened its monetary policy, At that time, the interbank offered rate once soared to 300 percent.”

Ren Zhikang, director of the HKMA, was also present. Hearing Zhou Hao's mention of this matter, his back straightened immediately, and his expression couldn't help becoming tense.

"Although this kind of high interest rate increases the cost of foreign exchange speculators, it will also cause heavy damage to the stock market. The market is full of selling orders, and the Hang Seng Index plummeted by more than 4,000 points, following the decline on October 28. More than 1,400 points, although Sodos and his gang didn’t get any profit from foreign exchange speculation, they made a fortune in the stock market.” Zhou Hao shook his head and said: “That’s why I said before blindly borrowing high loans The interest rate is simply treating the symptoms rather than the root cause.”

After hearing Zhou Hao's words, Chief Executive Dong and those experts all looked at Ren Zhikang at the same time. Now they all know that this tactic of simply raising the lending rate is really killing the enemy by one thousand and self-defeating eight hundred, and it will even be used by others However, those foreign media called Hong Kong a "super cash machine" for those speculators, largely because of this rigid measure.

Ren Zhikang's face was flushed, and he couldn't think of anything to refute Zhou Hao's point of view, especially now that the facts were in front of him. His "any trick" move not only caused great damage to the Hong Kong stock market, but also encouraged the arrogance of Soros and others arrogance.

Zhou Hao's voice sounded again: "In fact, everyone, don't blame Director Ren too much. Facing the attack of Soros's pack of wolves, his reaction is already very fast. Don't you see that the governments of Thailand and Malaysia have been beaten to death by those guys, luckily. What's more, there is a bureau chief in Hong Kong who guards the gate of the city.

up. "

At this moment, Zhou Hao's words sounded like heavenly sounds to Ren Zhikang, and he was inexplicably grateful to Zhou Hao in his heart. Hao single-handedly contributed.

And Zhou Hao's "understanding" of Ren Zhikang is even more subtle in Qin Bai's eyes, because this is clearly the profound way of governing, with one tightening and one loosening being appropriate and tepid. Jiao helped him up again, making his subordinates unknowingly give up on him. They have often used this kind of imperial way, or they have been used by the upper-level leaders on themselves, so they are particularly sensitive to it.

Both Qin Bai and Qin Bai couldn't help thinking of some rumors from the central government. The chairman and the prime minister handed over the burden of Hong Kong to Zhou Hao, and Zhaojiadui Zhou Hao fully supported him. Now Zhou Hao has shown With such "imperial mind skills", they couldn't help guessing: this Zhou Hao, could he really be the next-generation successor that the higher-ups deliberately cultivated?

However, Zhou Hao didn't know that his move to follow the "local forces" in Hong Kong for the sake of the overall situation would make such an association between Qin Donghai and Bai Zhengnan, otherwise he would really be amazed at the imagination of those senior officials.

Zhou Hao, who was so focused on the financial war in Hong Kong, didn't notice Qin Bai's careful thinking, and continued to say to everyone present: "Do you know what aspects Julian Robertson cares most about Hong Kong?"

Everyone shook their heads, and Zhou Hao said, "One is the number of tourists visiting Hong Kong, and the other is the overdraft rate of Hong Kong investors."

At this time, another expert said puzzledly: "We can understand the investor overdraft ratio, because the investor overdraft ratio can show the excitement of the stock market. It's not far off, so the overdraft ratio can be seen as a contrarian indicator. But what does tourist arrivals have to do with that?"

Zhou Hao explained: "Perhaps the vast majority of people think that the number of tourists visiting Hong Kong is only one of more than ten comprehensive indicators that need to be observed to track Hong Kong's economy and market, but in Julian Robertson, or in Tiger Fund's In their eyes, the number of tourists visiting Hong Kong has a huge impact on Hong Kong's economy and is an important indicator of their actions against Hong Kong.

First of all, tourists visiting Hong Kong are directly related to Hong Kong's foreign exchange income, and foreign exchange income is the raw material for Hong Kong's currency issuance. According to my personal statistics, tourism accounts for more than 40% of Hong Kong's service exports, and it has a positive effect on stabilizing the linked exchange rate system. very important supporting role.

In addition, the consumption of tourists visiting Hong Kong contributes a lot to Hong Kong's GDP. On the surface, according to the statistics of the Hong Kong Tourism Association, the consumption of tourists visiting Hong Kong contributes only 6% to GDP. number effect, I estimate its effect on gd

The contribution rate of p is not less than 12.5 percent.

Another point is that tourists visiting Hong Kong are still economic leaders.

According to the first indicator, the trend of retail consumption, another important indicator of economic activity, can be basically inferred from the number of tourists visiting Hong Kong. "

After Zhou Hao's explanation, everyone suddenly realized. Zeng Yingquan also held his chin and muttered: "Tiger Fund really lives up to its reputation. It sees what others can't see, and uses it as a breakthrough to deal a fatal blow to the enemy."

"According to me, compared to Tiger Fund or Julian Robertson, Zhou Hao is more powerful." Ren Zhikang said with a smile: "It is difficult to play tricks, but it is even more difficult to expose tricks."

Chief Executive Dong nodded and said with a smile: "No wonder the chairman and the prime minister asked us to ask Zhou Hao more when we encounter difficulties. The leaders really see things right."

Compared with these, those few experts are more concerned about academic things. After Zhou Hao demonstrated his "strength", they put aside all contempt, and immediately gathered around and hurriedly asked: "Zhou, Mr. Zhou, since the linked exchange rate system has such obvious and dangerous disadvantages, So how can we improve it? Is it really necessary to abandon the current linked exchange rate system and switch to another exchange rate system?"

Hearing that these experts in their 50s and 60s even called the "teacher", Zhou Hao really couldn't laugh or cry, but the question they raised was indeed a crucial economic issue for Hong Kong, so he said patiently: " In fact, no exchange rate system can be suitable for any economic system at any time, because no matter which exchange rate system is implemented, the most important thing is that it must implement the overall macroeconomic policy.

The peg has worked well in Hong Kong since its introduction in 1983, and I believe it will continue to do so in the future.

As for the switch to other exchange rate systems you mentioned, I think you must have thoroughly studied them. In fact, other exchange rate systems are not the best choice for Hong Kong. Before substantial development occurs, the linked exchange rate system is still the most suitable for Hong Kong. "

"But Mr. Zhou, didn't you say that the linked exchange rate system has obvious shortcomings?" An expert said, "Could it be that Hong Kong will suffer huge losses due to the rigidity of the exchange rate system when the next financial crisis hits?"

Zhou Hao shook his head with a smile: "Although we can't switch to other exchange rate systems, we can improve the linked exchange rate system."

Then, everyone present, including Chief Executive Dong, Zeng Yingquan, and Qin Bai, the two central bank governors, looked at Zhou Hao with bright eyes, and only heard Zhou Hao say: "We can strengthen the mechanism of the currency board, which will help create a lower currency. The interest rate environment has changed, and the core content of this measure is to replace the original liquidity adjustment mechanism with the discount window. Under this new arrangement, banks can use exchange fund bills and bonds to borrow overnight funds from the HKMA, virtually It can increase the account balance of the banking system several times or even dozens of times in disguise, and increase the liquidity of the bank.

The announcement of the basic interest rate by the Monetary Authority before the start of each day also has a certain guiding effect on the market. The basic interest rate will become the upper limit of the overnight interest rate. Use the exchange fund bills on hand to borrow the required overnight funds through the discount window. In this way, the pressure of rising interest rates can be alleviated. At the same time, the government should also implement some measures to tighten the supervision of securities and futures, such as preventing short sellers from selling stocks below the market price, and strengthening the investigation and monitoring of illegal short selling , increasing the difficulty of short selling. "

These measures are all improvements to the linked exchange rate made by the Hong Kong government after the financial war in the previous life, and are now being used by Zhou Hao.

(end of this chapter)

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