Chapter 896 Some Thoughts
Chapter 896 A little thought
However, after listening to the report of the Pengzhou Municipal Standing Committee, Zhao Jianhui still put forward some of his own opinions on this issue. Specific economic operations are not Director Zhao Jianhui's specialty. He only expressed his personal views on local economic development at the current stage from a policy perspective.
These are some of the ideas he slowly began to take shape while thinking about the exam while studying at the party school.
"...After 30 years of reform and opening up, my country's economy has continued to grow at a high speed, with an annual growth rate of more than 9%, and industrialization has advanced by leaps and bounds. Many foreign scholars believe that this is a 'growth miracle' in modern economic history. This so-called 'growth miracle' is How did it happen? Many experts and scholars are exploring the "mystery". There may be many answers. I think the most fundamental reason is that our country has chosen a market economy and embarked on the path of market-oriented reform. This choice has changed our country's development trajectory. Changed the pattern of world politics and economic development.”
"It is not uncommon for our country to choose a market-oriented system for development. Why can my country's market-oriented reform and development achieve such outstanding results in just 30 years? I think one thing that is worth studying here is that our country We have developed our own market economy development model. What is my country’s market economy development model? How should this model be summarized? There are currently various versions of it, such as the "incremental reform model" that many people agree with. But in the final analysis, the "incremental reform model" is only about the characteristics of policy operations. The summary of my country’s market-oriented reform requires more in-depth research on more essential things.”
"In the history of modern market economy, it is difficult to see cases similar to the development of my country's market economy. In the classic literature of Western economics, it is also difficult to find rigorous academic arguments that can annotate my country's market economy. my country's market Economic development strives to combine and integrate the basic concepts and systems of socialism with the general rules of the market economy, which is very different from any previous market economy model..."
“…I believe that an important feature of our country’s market economic development model is that in the process of market-oriented reform and development, it does not abandon the basic policy of public ownership as the main body, but also adheres to the policy of common development of multiple ownership systems. Under the strong leadership of the country, the country’s economic control Quantity and government management have always played a leading role. Obviously, this development model is different from the market economic development model of some countries in Central and South America, the marketization path of Eastern European countries and Russia, and the so-called government of Oriental countries. The dominant market economic model is different..."
"In my country's market economic model, of course the price-competition mechanism plays an important role, but at the same time the control of the national economy and the role of government management are particularly strong. In this regard, there are many critical views in foreign academic circles, the so-called This is where the term "authoritarian capitalism" comes from. There are also many criticisms from domestic academic circles, and the most pointed ones believe that this situation does not conform to the general laws of market economic development. I think there may be a problem. It’s not that simple.”
Hegel has an important proposition: all actual existence is reasonable. Here, I would like to use the famous "Wagner's Theorem" to explain the rationality of the existence of my country's market economic model. In the 1870s, German economist Wagner discovered that once a country fully enters the process of industrialization, government economic departments will expand in number and proportion, public finances will continue to expand, and national economic strength and government management will continue to strengthen... …. Wagner predicted that this trend, as a regular phenomenon, will still be in effect in the next 50 to 100 years. Regarding the reasons for this trend, Wagner gave several basic reasons: large-scale industrial development requires the development and expansion of public infrastructure; fierce market competition requires an increase in public welfare projects; active economic monopoly power requires strengthening market management; industrialization leads to rural bankruptcy and requires the government Comprehensive help and more.
After the publication of "Wagner's Theorem", several famous economists (including Nobel Prize winner Samuelson) used the British Industrial Revolution, the development of the United States after World War II, and the comparative development of Britain and Germany after the 1960s to make experiences. After verification of the data, the conclusion is that although the actual situation is very tortuous and complicated, the general trend of "Wagner's Theorem" exists.
During the planned economy period, although we established a basic system for national industrialization, it was reform, opening up, and market-oriented reforms that spurred the comprehensive and rapid development of my country's industrialization. In this new development environment, the various situations in which national economic power and government management are constantly strengthened that Wagner talked about can also be found in our country. In addition, our country will continue to be a developing country for a long time. In the process of industrialization, urban and rural coordination and regional development coordination, land resources and environmental protection, building an innovative country, national economic security, controlling the growth of a huge population, and maintaining market order, As well as planning global development strategies and other aspects of the task is very heavy. It can be said that the reason for the existence of "Wagner's Theorem" in our country may be more sufficient.
Further inspection will reveal that in the 30 years of sustained and rapid economic growth after the reform and opening up, the state-led market economic model with Chinese characteristics has played a very important role.
——Highly efficient accumulation of industrialization led by the state. One of the most basic bottlenecks in the development of modern industry in my country is the lack of capital accumulation. During the planned economy period, the government carried out initial accumulation through unequal exchange with agricultural products and established the national industrialization basic system. Reform and opening up introduced the competition mechanism and price mechanism of the market economy, and began the historical process of full-scale industrialization. Now, although there are many ways to accumulate capital in the new era, the main ways to obtain the most important capital accumulation are one is to rely on the introduction of funds from abroad, and the other is through land accumulation, that is, the government and developers obtain a large amount of funds by expropriating land at a low price.
The total amount of capital obtained by relying on land accumulation is much larger than the funds introduced from abroad. Some research institutions have estimated that the total amount exceeds 20 trillion yuan.
Existing research data show that since the reform and opening up, the land transfer income of local governments at all levels has exceeded more than 35% of the fiscal budget.
Although this accumulation method is unequal to many landless farmers who are undercompensated, and the subsequent social contradictions it brings are also very difficult, no one can deny that it is precisely relying on this extremely huge land capital accumulation that my country's industrialization and urbanization can develop so rapidly and GDP can maintain a long-term and sustained high-speed growth level. The institutional condition for this land capital accumulation is the consistent land nationalization system since the founding of the People's Republic of China - this is actually the strongest foundation for public ownership as the main body.
If not, we would have overthrown this system after the reform and opening up, implemented land privatization reform, and put land ownership completely in private hands. In this way, the degree of market liberalization will definitely be very high, and market competition will be more sufficient, but the cost of promoting industrialization and urbanization will be very high, and it will definitely take a longer time to achieve today's industrial development results.
- State management of resources, energy industry and economic stability. A country's resources and energy industry are the basic economic sectors for industrial development. Their development and supply and demand conditions not only play an important role in the micro-operation of downstream industries, but also have an important impact on the macro-operation of the entire national economy and national economic security. Under the planned economic system, this economic sector was completely monopolized by the state and operated in a unified nationalized manner.
After the market reform, the development of this economic sector faced two choices: one was that the industry entered the field of perfect competition and underwent a thorough market-oriented transformation, with domestic and foreign private capital taking on the main role of investment and development (many developing countries have made this choice in market-oriented reforms); the other was that the state's economic control and government management would not be changed, but the original nationalized operation system would be institutionally reformed. We chose the latter. Facts have proved that this choice is reasonable.
After the reform, the industrial capacity and corporate outlook have undergone major changes, and many corporate groups have entered the top 100 in the world. In particular, state-owned enterprises, under the overall management of the government, play a strategic role in maintaining macroeconomic stability in the national economy, assume important social responsibilities in maintaining stable growth, and provide downstream enterprises with relatively cheap primary products, which is actually a subsidy for the entire cost of industrialization by the state (this important cost factor cannot be ignored). In addition, since domestic private capital is still unable to enter the development stage on a large scale, the strategic control of large foreign companies and capital can be avoided by the state's capital advantage holding.
- The government's strong economic organizational power. There are two inherent deficiencies in my country's entry into the modern market economy, one is the institutional problem, and the other is the public product problem. From the perspective of institutional problems, my country does not have a mercantilism tradition and a relatively developed modern industrial and commercial social foundation, and the planned system completely excludes market economic activities. Under such circumstances, the development of my country's market economy is not carried out spontaneously from the bottom up, but the ruling party consciously changes its ideas and the government promotes market-oriented reforms in an organized manner from top to bottom. This kind of government organizational behavior includes proposing reform guidelines, giving up market activity areas, reducing the proportion of planned pricing, reforming state-owned enterprises, providing a market mechanism operation system platform, managing market order, and so on. It can be said that in my country, the "invisible hand" of the market is fostered by the "visible hand" of the government. If this is not the case, the market-oriented reform will hold high the banner of privatization from the beginning and rely entirely on the spontaneous implementation of private entities. The development of my country's market economy may have a completely different result.
From the perspective of public products, my country has a vast territory, the market economy has been fully launched, and the problem of effectively providing public products is very prominent. Who will build large ports? Who will organize modern transportation networks? Who will invest in basic farmland water conservancy facilities? Who will manage the big rivers? Who will be in charge of land planning? Who will deal with environmental pollution? There are other issues...
Of course, according to the Coase principle, these public products can also be provided by private individuals under the condition of clarifying property rights. But it is almost indisputable that if public products are provided in this way, the transaction costs will be much greater, at least the level of social infrastructure will never be what it is today.
In the 30 years of reform and opening up, the government has used its powerful economic organization power to provide large-scale and well-equipped public products for market development, laying a good foundation for the long-term development of my country's economy. If all our enterprises become privately controlled, then in less than a few years, what will we use to promote the construction of such public products? This drawback has already appeared in some developed countries...
This chapter is very brain-intensive and may be boring, but it is a reflection of Lao Zhao's personal spiritual formation. Please support me by giving me flowers and votes...