Chapter 433 Collapse of Holding Beliefs!
"The stock market crash should not happen." Yu Lei responded, "After all, the market index points and the overall market valuation level are already very low. Even if it falls to the extreme value of historical valuation, it will not fall very far. Just be afraid. After a few days of sharp decline, the market has fallen back into its previous downward trend!”
"Especially if the Shanghai Stock Index cannot hold its position of 2,200 points..."
“Once the index falls into the large box shock range of 2,000 points to 2,200 points, it will be difficult to avoid the negative downward trend, and in the short to medium term, there may not be any sustained big market trend in the market. "
"Hey..." Hearing Yu Lei's words, Liu Guanhai sighed softly and said, "If the market develops like this, there is nothing we can do about it. Next... we must completely adjust our trading strategy and do a good job We are ready for a long-term war of resistance. At this stage, we do not seek profits, but only seek to outperform the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index in net value retracement. If we do not fall into the risk warning stage, we will win if we do not clear the market. "
Yu Lei nodded and said: "Then we may have to continue to reduce our positions. At this stage, we can further reduce the fund's position level."
At the current stage, the position level of the entire fund has been significantly reduced after yesterday and today.
Although it has dropped a lot, it still remains above the 50% position line and has not entered the complete position defense stage.
According to this position line, if the index continues to fall sharply next.
The net value retracement of the entire fund will not be small, and there is still a high probability that it will fall below the net value risk warning line, or even touch the liquidation line.
"Since the trading strategy is to be transferred to a completely defensive state, it is necessary to continue to reduce positions." Liu Guanhai stared at the market trend of the two cities that continued to fall, nodded slightly, and continued, "'Infrastructure', 'State-owned enterprise reform' The stock chips of these two core main lines are being completely abandoned by market funds. Since we have missed the trading points of these two core main lines, we cannot make more mistakes. "
"What Mr. Liu means is that we won't keep any stock chips from the two core main lines of 'infrastructure' and 'state-owned enterprise reform' in the early stage, and we will clear them all?" Yu Lei asked, slightly stunned.
In fact, in terms of views on the two core market trends of ‘infrastructure’ and ‘state-owned enterprise reform’.
There are certain differences between the two.
Yu Lei believes that at the current stage, the two core main lines of 'infrastructure' and 'state-owned enterprise reform', although the adjustments have been very violent, are indeed the areas where various funds on the market mainly sell chips, but the macro fundamentals of these two core main lines The outlook and future performance expectations have not changed much.
Therefore, he believes that there is a high probability that there will still be certain investment opportunities in the market outlook for these two major market trends.
I do not agree with the trading strategy of comprehensively clearing positions related to these two core main lines of stock chips.
Liu Guanhai believes that at the current stage, the two core main lines of 'infrastructure' and 'state-owned enterprise reform' have obviously been abandoned by the main market funds. The entire hype market has ended, and the overall valuation of these two core main lines has also obviously Valuations that are higher than the market average should naturally be an area that needs to be avoided at this stage.
"Yes!" Liu Guanhai nodded, "Any questions?"
Yu Lei thought for a while and said: "I think the two core themes of 'infrastructure' and 'state-owned enterprise reform', the industry's fundamentals and long-term expectations, as well as the country's policy support and policy guidance in this direction, everything is If we are developing in a good direction, these two core lines may still have greater investment opportunities after the market decline slows down.”
"Theoretically, there are still certain investment opportunities for these two core main lines." Liu Guanhai said, "However, judging from the current market trends and the movements of major funds, the two core main lines have The overall chip structure has completely changed, and valuation expectations are also declining rapidly. Since we plan to shift the overall trading strategy to a completely defensive stage, we cannot rely on pure expectations and expectations for investment opportunities in the market. Just imagine, you have to respect the actual situation of the market.”
"Judging from the actual trends of various industry sectors and concept sectors in the current market..."
"A number of related industry sectors and concept sectors in the two core main areas of 'infrastructure' and 'state-owned enterprise reform' are still at relatively high levels. This has caused a sharp decline in market investment risk appetite, and the overall valuation spring has once again been pushed downwards. At the time of compression, a number of popular high-priced stocks in these two core main lines are where the risk of market decline is most concentrated, where the selling of the main funds of all parties on the market is the most severe, and where the wait-and-see sentiment of investors taking over the side is the strongest. ”
"And..."
Liu Guanhai paused and continued: "The current net value of our 'Yinghui No. 1' fund is not far from the risk warning line. In other words, we do not have enough error tolerance. After all, once the net value of the fund is lower than the risk warning line, We can only reduce our positions passively and can no longer choose to increase our positions.”
"Without sufficient error tolerance, we cannot focus on the long term for the time being."
"It is even more impossible to ignore short-term fluctuations and continue to hold some stocks that have been the most severely sold by major funds in the market and have a high risk of falling."
"That's the same thing..."
Liu Guanhai smiled helplessly and said, "For our current situation, the most important thing is to ensure that the net value of the fund does not fall back on a large scale. As for the choice of specific investment opportunities and the so-called long-term underlying logic thinking, we can only give up for the time being."
"Now we can only keep losses small or no losses."
"Then wait until this wave of market adjustments is over and the right opportunities come out before we can safely enter the market again."
"Hey, I understand the many investment opportunities and investment logic you mentioned, but due to some previous trading mistakes, the investment strategies we can do now are very limited. We can only passively follow the market trend and take limited remedial measures."
After hearing Liu Guanhai's words, Yu Lei pondered for a moment, but he also understood.
He only analyzed the market from the perspective of a trader, but did not take into account the current situation faced by fund products, and there was no margin for error at all.
"I understand!" Yu Lei nodded, "Then let's follow Mr. Liu's idea."
After saying that, he immediately turned around and told the traders behind him to speed up the pace of reducing and clearing the fund's holdings.
At this moment, in the 'Yinghui No. 2' fund trading room in another part of the company.
As the fund manager of the 'Yinghui No. 2' fund product, Shao Xiaoyun saw that the market continued to fall unilaterally, and that the industry sectors and concept sectors in the two core main lines of 'infrastructure' and 'state-owned enterprise reform' were almost all in a state of unresistance. The last glimmer of hope in his heart was also shattered, and he quickly told the traders to increase the intensity of reducing positions and reduce the fund positions to a safe area as soon as possible.
Similarly, at this moment, countless private equity and public equity institutions in Yuhang, Shenzhen, Yanjing... and other places.
They are also reducing their positions on a large scale without distinction, or even clearing their positions.
As for the hot money and retail investors in the market, after noticing the almost crazy selling of the main funds in the market, they also quickly followed the market and sold, causing the two markets to not only fail to bottom out and rebound in the last ten minutes of the closing, but the selling force became stronger and stronger, and it completely presented a picture of continuous diving and a significant lack of liquidity.
Finally, at 3 o'clock in the afternoon, when the market closed.
The Shanghai Composite Index was at 2238.23 points, down 2.93%, while the Shenzhen Composite Index and the ChiNext Index plummeted by more than 3%. The turnover of the two markets was 119.237 billion. Although it was smaller than the previous stage when the Shanghai Composite Index hit 2500 points, it showed obvious signs of increasing volume compared with yesterday.
In addition to the index, the performance of the main lines, industry sectors and concept sectors of the two markets.
I saw that several major main lines that were hot in the previous stage of continuous market rise, such as "infrastructure", "state-owned enterprise reform", "Internet finance", and "Shanghai Free Trade Zone", have become the main lines leading the market today. The related industry sectors and concept sectors have also led the decline in the two markets. The overall performance is terrible. Among them, the two major industry sectors of real estate and film and television media have fallen by more than 3.5%.
Even the main line areas such as "big finance", "consumption", and "pharmaceuticals" that once performed relatively strongly during the session.
In the late trading stage, they also turned green and showed a clear downward trend, but the decline was slightly smaller than the performance of the major indexes in the two cities.
Among them, the "military industry" sector was stimulated by the good news at noon.
Although the industry sector index eventually closed down, compared with the overall pattern of the two cities, this main line is still in the leading position of the two cities, which can be regarded as the only bright market area in today's market.
In general, judging from the performance of the major industry sector indexes in the two cities,
Today's market opened low and closed low, with occasional struggles during the day.
As for the performance of individual stocks in the two cities...
Except for the outstanding performance of the 'China Airlines' stocks in the main field of 'military industry', the others basically showed an obvious loss effect. Among them, this loss effect was most prominent in the two core main fields of 'infrastructure' and 'state-owned enterprise reform', which are highly concerned by the market.
Like 'Beixin Road Bridge, Beijiang Jiaojian, Jinhu Group, Shanghai Sanmao' and other top ten popular stocks in the market, almost all closed at the limit down, and the trend was extremely tragic. In one day, billions of investors on and off the market were buried.
"Oh, it's too miserable. The Shanghai Composite Index almost closed at the lowest point in the session."
Faced with the unilateral plunge and the obvious loss effect of the closing results of the two cities, the Internet, the discussion areas of major trading platforms, and the stock investment forums, where various retail groups gather, are all full of grief.
"It's really amazing. The two core themes of 'infrastructure' and 'SOE reform', and the related major industry sectors, such as real estate, steel, building materials, and building decoration, have a total net outflow of 6.78 billion yuan from the main funds. Damn... the main funds have all run away!"
"A big bare-footed negative line, this market... is really over!"
"I really can't have any fluke, hey... cut my losses early, and relax early."
"I thought that after killing to this point, there would be at least a weak rebound. I didn't expect that there would be panic selling in the last trading stage. I'm speechless."
"In the downward trend, all intraday rebounds are to lure more."
"Today's 'military industry' line is really born at the wrong time. It's hard to concentrate on pulling up a wave, but it was hit again in the last trading."
"Oh, limit down again and again, what a sin!"
"For a week in a row, the net outflow of the main funds in the market is nearly 30 billion, right?"
"The market has plummeted so unilaterally, and the transaction volume is less than 120 billion. It is obvious... the more it falls, the fewer people will take over!"
"Who will take over? The more they take over, the more they lose."
"What a joke, will they continue to lose money if they take over? At this stage, anyone who takes over is stupid."
"It feels that the defensive sectors such as 'finance', 'consumption', and 'pharmaceuticals' that did not rise much in the early stage have some resistance. The other main sectors are basically panic-selling, especially the two major areas of 'infrastructure' and 'state-owned enterprise reform'. They should be completely finished, right?"
"It was already finished. In the entire market, the main funds sold the most in these two main areas."
"After Mr. Su reduced his positions on a large scale, these two main areas were completely finished."
"It's mainly because of excessive short-term speculation, right? Beixin Road Bridge was speculated 4 or 5 times in the short term, but looking at the fundamentals of this check, it has basically not changed."
"To put it bluntly, the market is still short-term speculation logic."
"If the long-term logic can't hold up, the market should only have concept speculation, right?"
"It's not that the long-term logic can't hold up, but the current market's investment risk preference is rapidly declining, coupled with the spread of panic, which suppresses the long-term logic. In fact, from the fundamentals and the future From the perspective of performance expectations, the investment logic of the two core themes of "infrastructure" and "SOE reform" has not changed at all. "
"I feel that if the market continues like this, the two core themes of "infrastructure" and "SOE reform" will fall back to the starting point, right?"
"Fuck, fall back to the starting point, no way?"
"If Beixin Road Bridge's check falls back to the starting point, then... I will lose 70%. "
"Well, let's see if the Shanghai Composite Index can hold up at 2200 points. After the Shanghai Composite Index plummeted today, the index is less than 2 points away from the 2200 support point. "
"I feel that it will reach 2200 points tomorrow. "
"The index fell more than it rose at the beginning of the month Fast, with this trend, I feel that the Shanghai Composite Index is likely to be unable to stop at 2200 points. "
"No matter whether it can hold up or not, in two words, 'clear the warehouse' is over!"
"More than half of the top ten stocks in the market today are locked at the limit down board, and according to the final closing results, 56 stocks in the two cities have reached the limit down board!"
"In one word, miserable!"
"It is estimated that today's Dragon and Tiger List data is also very ugly."
"You don't even need to look at it to know that it must be a large-scale sale of major funds from all parties."
When many retail investor groups were discussing fiercely after the market closed, at 5:30 pm, the Dragon and Tiger List of the two cities was refreshed.
As expected, the majority of stocks on the list, in the disclosed buying and selling seats, the main funds showed a net outflow trend, and all the funds buying and selling seats disclosed in the entire Dragon and Tiger List had a total net sale of more than 1.17 billion, setting a record for the Dragon and Tiger List in the market in the past two months.
Seeing such Dragon and Tiger List trading data...
Although the majority of investors in the market had already had quite pessimistic expectations, at this moment, they still showed shocked expressions, and their belief in holding stocks completely collapsed!