Chapter 338 The Core of Investment Transactions

After yesterday’s suspension of the mixed-ownership reform of Huaguo Petrochemical, we can see that the external trend is still good.

Most stocks in the two cities opened higher. Among them, the two main concept stocks of 'mobile Internet' and 'smartphone industry chain' in the direction of GEM and small and medium-sized board rebounded strongly, leading the gains in the two cities, while the concept field of 'central enterprises and state-owned assets reform' , except for a few small-cap stocks controlled by local state-owned assets, there was no obvious bright performance in large-cap stocks.

“It seems that Huaguo Petrochemical’s mixed-ownership reform and suspension will have a very limited impact on the market!”

Seeing that the initial situation of call auctions in the two cities was obviously weaker than expected, Li Meng lamented: "It feels like the market's sensitivity to news and reaction to news have begun to slow down and decrease."

Su Yu nodded slightly and said, "The market has become immune to news, which is almost a characteristic of the bottom."

"The attack direction of active funds is still on the two main lines of 'mobile Internet' and 'smartphone industry chain' led by the small and medium-sized board and the GEM." Li Meng said, "It seems that the time for the market style to change is still not available. Mature, we... are afraid we still have to wait!"

"It doesn't matter!" Su Yu said, "We'll take a look when the market opens."

"Mr. Su, based on the expected logic and the reactions of various sectors during the market's decline during this period, the main conceptual lines of 'mobile Internet' and 'smartphone industry chain' in the direction of the small and medium-sized board and GEM are still the strongest. "While the two were talking, Liu Yuan, the leader of the 'Yuhang No. 2' fund trading team, said, "Only these two main lines in the entire decline were resistive declines, and according to various data collected and researched by the company's research office, According to industry research reports, the industries related to these two main lines are still the areas with the strongest explosion in scale and performance. Why does Mr. Su feel that... the market will definitely undergo a change in main line style in the next stage? "

Su Yu saw the confusion in Liu Yuan's eyes and said with a smile: "That's a good question! Then what do you think are the basic conditions for investment opportunities in the stock market? What is the basic logic of the rise and fall of stock prices? If you want to obtain excess Where do the biggest opportunities for income come from?”

"The fundamental logic of the rise and fall of stock prices is naturally the difference in the expected period." Liu Yuan said, "The difference between investors' fundamental understanding of the company and the expected period of future company development leads to the continuity of transactions and fluctuations in stock prices. As for The basic conditions for the existence of opportunities...should be the expected changes in future caused by changes in market information and actual events, resulting in expected differences in opportunities.”

"The biggest source of opportunity to obtain excess returns..."

Liu Yuan thought about it for a while, but she didn't understand the problem deeply. She couldn't help but pause. After a while, she asked: "Please give me some advice, Mr. Su."

Su Yu smiled and said, "It's still the market's expected difference!"

"Sufficient differences in market expectations can generate excess market investment opportunities."

"What you just said about the two core lines of 'mobile Internet' and 'smartphone industry chain' is still the area with the clearest investment logic and the strongest future expectations in the market. This is correct."

“But in these two major areas, after the hype throughout last year, as well as the comprehensive performance explosion and corresponding stock price performance of popular stocks in various related industries, many investment institutions in the entire market have focused their attention on this area, deepening the investment research capabilities in this field.”

"in other words……"

"The future expectations of these two major fields are good. In the current market, basically everyone knows about them."

"Since everyone's future development expectations and performance expectations for these two major fields are very good, it means that in these two major fields, everyone's expectations are quite consistent, and they are all optimistic about them. This means that there is currently no progress in these two major fields. If there is too big a difference in market expectations, it will naturally be difficult to generate opportunities for excess market profits.”

"When you have a bright card in your hand, then...it's hard to surprise people."

"Moreover, it is precisely because everyone is optimistic about the future of the two major fields of 'mobile Internet' and 'smartphone industry chain' and believe that there are still good investment opportunities here. So, in the short term, the relevant core of these two fields will It is difficult for stocks to fall through when the market has a relatively large correction, and it is difficult to have obvious opportunities to fall. "

"Of course, I'm not saying that there are no investment opportunities in these two areas."

"But given the current market expectations for these two areas are relatively consistent, it is difficult to obtain market excess returns that far exceed index fluctuations."

"Looking at some areas of the main board direction..."

“Under the compression of low-expected valuations that are generally pessimistic in the market, the market has already reached the bottom of the extreme valuation. At this time... as long as the market picks up a little and a gust of wind blows, then future expectations change slightly and the superimposed valuation rebounds, it will be very easy. Easily obtain excess market returns.”

"Of course, when the wind doesn't blow up."

"Active funds in the market will naturally converge in the areas with the strongest future expectations and the highest so-called certainty in the current market, which are the areas of 'mobile Internet' and 'smartphone industry chain' that you just mentioned."

"Understood!" Liu Yuan said, "The core of investment transactions is still the words 'expected difference'."

"Yes!" Su Yu said, "The financial trading market cannot allow most people to make money, so... it means that obvious opportunities are most likely not opportunities."

"The two core main lines of 'mobile Internet' and 'smartphone industry chain'."

“When market expectations are consistent, there are no good investment opportunities. Only when there are differences in expectations between these two fields over time and industry development, that is, the highly optimistic consensus expectations fail, and the valuations re-evaluate. When there is significant divergence in related stocks, it is a good opportunity to invest.”

"Before this, many main board industry sectors that have been compressed to the limit of valuation, completely abandoned by the market, and whose future expectations have been hit to the bottom, under the stimulus of policies, have better opportunities to reverse expectations, so we The focus of future investment should also be on this.”

"Mr. Su is talking about the real estate industry chain and infrastructure-related fields?" Liu Yuan asked.

Su Yu nodded slightly and said: "Yes, since the core driving force of the macroeconomics is to return to the development of 'urbanization construction' with the 'real estate economy' as the core, which has been in the doldrums for several years and has been suppressed by policies for several years. The real estate industry chain, urban construction, and infrastructure-related fields have sufficient expectations for a reversal.”

While the three of them were talking, the time had reached 9:20.

After 5 minutes of call auction trading, the market pattern of stocks in the two cities generally opening high has fallen back a lot. Among nearly 2,000 stocks, only 53% of the stocks were in the red market. At the beginning of the call auction, the stocks in the two cities led the gains. 'Mobile Internet' and 'smartphone industry chain' related concept sectors, as well as related concept stocks, all fell sharply. On the contrary, the real estate and infrastructure-related industry sectors mentioned by Su Yu just now climbed to the top of the list of industry sectors in the two cities. .

Moreover, in the entire concept sector of 'state-owned enterprise reform', local state-owned holding companies related to real estate and infrastructure have also entered the forefront of the concept sector's growth list, driven by selling funds.

Seeing this scene, Su Yu couldn't help but laugh and said: "It seems... there are still a lot of smart funds in the market who know how to attack in this direction."

The reform of state-owned assets of central enterprises has superimposed the concept of real estate and infrastructure industries that have the conditions for recovery.

Su Yu guessed that this should be the next area in the market with the most investment opportunities and the most expected differences.

“But overall, buying is still insufficient.” Li Meng said, “What’s more, the funds are attacking large-cap stocks of central enterprises such as Gemdale, Poly, Kewan, Huatie, Huajian, and Huaye. With the current The overall capacity of the market may not be able to pull this off. The concept of 'reform of state-owned enterprises and state-owned assets' is too big, and there probably won't be much opportunity until the market fully recovers."

Su Yu said: "With the current market capacity, it will definitely be difficult to suddenly pull these things, but undoubtedly... this is a signal, proving that the market style is indeed slowly changing, proving that there are smart investments. Institutions are already actively adjusting positions and placing orders in this regard.”

“For us, as long as we’re doing it in the right direction, that’s fine.”

"Patience, we have plenty of it."

"Then we..." Liu Yuan asked, "can we aggressively follow the position and take advantage of the opportunity to heat up the market?"

Su Yu thought for a while and said: "Don't worry, although the index is currently at the bottom of the range between 2000 points and 2200 points, and the market has indeed shrunk to the limit, the panic in the market has not been released quickly. The index... is still short of the final drop!”

"Please be patient and wait a little longer. The panic in the market will not be unleashed in a concentrated manner."

"Pull up at this position, the pressure will not be reduced, and even if it rebounds, there will not be much room. Only by clearing the meat plate and reducing the pressure on the market, will there be enough room for rebound, and we...can make a good move in the market. ”

"Okay!" Liu Yuan nodded and stopped talking.

At this time, the time has reached 9:25, and the collective bidding in the two cities has ended.

I saw that although the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index, Shenzhen Stock Exchange Index and GEM Index all opened higher, the opening range was only between 0.11% and 0.15%, which was still lower than the expectations of market investors. Moreover, the concept of "central enterprises and state-owned assets reform" was detonated by Huaguo Petrochemical. The sector only rose by 0.35%. Within the sector, only a few stocks that were not very large, such as Deep Technology, SDIC Capital, and Huajiao Real Estate, rose by more than 5%.

Subsequently, when the time entered 9:30, the two cities officially opened for trading.

More than 100 stocks in the concept sector of "Central-owned Enterprises and State-owned Assets Reform", after briefly rising high, began to fall one after another. The stocks were weak and selling increased sharply. It seemed that the funds trapped in the market had taken advantage of the "Huaguo Petrochemical Mixed-ownership Reform" The suspension's positive signs of accelerating escape exits.

The two main areas are ‘mobile internet’ and ‘smartphone industry chain’ in the direction of the small and medium-sized board and GEM.

Many popular stocks that were continuously speculated last year have also gone out of the form of rising and falling as the trading time goes by, with no sign of the end of the adjustment.

Overall…

Even if there are corresponding benefits in the market, the money-making effect is still sluggish.

After the main board's "state-owned enterprise state-owned assets reform" concept, the small and medium-sized board and GEM's "mobile Internet" and "smartphone industry chain" concepts were unable to generate sustained market prices and attract large-scale funds to follow suit, the market trading time was 10 o'clock After a few minutes, all the hot money in the market, which was still active, began to focus on the concept of "Shanghai Free Trade Zone" at a low level, stimulating the growth of pure companies such as "Waigaoqiao, Shanghai Sanmao, Shanghai Steel Union, and Shibei High-tech". The Shanghai Free Trade Zone concept stocks were launched in order to heat up the market and stimulate market sentiment.

However, after a short period of capital gathering.

When the Shanghai stock market rose by 30 cents, it was smashed from the daily limit.

This move by the hot money completely failed, and the market returned to a downward trend.

In the afternoon, as the market continued to fall, when the intraday volume shrank to the limit, the trapped hot money pulled up the concept of "new stocks" in order to save the market sentiment.

In the end, facing the really depressed market sentiment and the market without any follow-up effect.

This behavior of hot money ended in failure.

Finally, at the closing time of 3 o'clock, the Shanghai Composite Index fell again by 0.75%, reaching 2018.19 points, approaching the 2000 point mark, and the ChiNext Index fell below 1100 points, returning to the previous shock support platform of 1000 to 1100 points.

Faced with such a weak market performance...

After several attacks and failures, the active speculators are desperate; under the good news of "Huaguo Petrochemical Mixed Reform Suspension", the institutions that follow the concept of "Central Enterprises and State-owned Assets Reform" are also full of grievances and feel that the market is really unreasonable; the vast number of retail investors who have been buried continuously and cut their losses and dare not look at their accounts are even more heartbroken, thinking that the stock market is really hopeless.

And because of the continued sluggish performance of the market after the Spring Festival.

After the major indexes closed with consecutive negative lines in December and January last year, they now closed with a real negative line again, destroying the upward trend that was finally restored in the second half of last year, pulling the market back into a deep bear market, and hitting the bottom of market confidence and investment sentiment again.

"Look at this pattern, next... 2000 points will be broken!"

After the closing of the monthly line, some people in the market, who have collapsed and despaired, made an assertion among the vast number of retail investors.

"Hey, it's at the bottom of the box, and there's no rebound. It's strange that 2000 points can be maintained."

"Fuck, they shouted about the 2000-point defense battle the year before last, and they also shouted about the 2000-point defense battle last year, and they are still shouting now... I'm speechless. Looking back over the past ten years, the Shanghai Composite Index is still hovering around 2000 points. Looking at the global market, I have never seen such an outrageous thing."

"Ten years of floating to zero, do you think it's nonsense?"

"Tired, tired! I hold expectations again and again, but every time I'm disappointed."

"I really didn't expect that the market would fall back to the starting point in 3 months with such a good market in the second half of last year."

"The index has returned to the starting point, but many stocks have hit new historical lows again!"

"Hey, 2000 points can't be maintained, I really don't know where the bottom is? Sell everything next week, Damn... I don't want to play in this market anymore."

"It's really miserable, not only us retail investors are miserable, but also the speculators who have taken action recently have suffered heavy losses!"

"Today, the speculators have changed their attack paths again and again, and they have never been able to bring up the mood. Just wait and see... In the new January next week, all the speculators who entered today will have to sell their stocks at a loss."

"Alas, there is no bottom in the bear market, and the decline is really despairing."

"It has been falling for more than 3 years. The bear market from 2002 to 2005 didn't feel so difficult to endure."

"What's outrageous is that today, major securities institutions and securities media are still shouting that the future is promising. The starting point of the bull market is not even 2000 points, so how can there be a bull market?"

"Look at the K-line backwards, isn't the bull coming?"

"Hey, these institutions and media may really be looking at the K-line backwards."

"Alas , I feel that there are fewer people on the forum, and the number of hot topics has almost halved compared to the beginning of December last year! "

"I don't want to open my account because I've lost so much money, so how can I chat, look at the stock market, and read forum news? I feel that if the market falls further, it will return to the trend of more than 1,000 stocks in the two markets, collectively weaving. "

"It's almost like that now. I bought a stock, and the daily transaction volume was only 1.36 million. Can you believe it? It's the transaction volume, not the transaction volume. I feel that 1 million can pull the daily limit, but unfortunately... I can enter but not exit. With this transaction volume, the big players in the market can't sell at all. "

"The liquidity crisis is getting closer and closer. "

"Alas, there is no money-making effect, and the off-site funds will not come in at all. Without incremental funds, no matter how big the benefits are, they are useless. "

"The money-making effect, Real money is needed to pull up the market. If the national team doesn't take the lead at this time, who will pull up the market? Should we rely on hot money and institutions? Hot money has pulled up the market for several times, but it is all trapped. Institutions... I heard that 90% of the public offering institutions in the market can't issue products anymore, and the existing products are also facing redemption waves one after another. Even so, it's good enough that the institutions don't smash the market to deal with redemptions. Where can they get the money to pull up the market? "

"Public offering institutions can't do it, let alone private offering institutions."

"In the past three months, the market has been falling unilaterally. In the Lujiazui area, at least 500 private investment companies have closed down."

"We can only rely on General Manager Su..."

"Yes, General Manager Su now has nearly 10 billion in cash, and the "Fortune Road" has great appeal to the market. If General Manager Su enters the market on a large scale and goes long, the sentiment can be hyped up, right? As long as the sentiment and money-making effect can be raised, it can attract incremental funds. With incremental funds, are you still afraid that there will be no market?"

"But General Manager Su's seat has disappeared for three months since he cleared his position in early December last year. "

"Alas, the flowers have all withered in my waiting."

"I am so eager to see you, when will the 'Road of Fortune' return?"

"The key is that the 'Yuhang No. 1' fund and the 'Yuhang No. 2' fund have not announced their net value and holdings recently. We have no idea about Mr. Su's movements!"

"Wait! Wait patiently. If I don't see 'Fortune Road', no matter how the index and the market change, I will not enter the market."

In the pessimistic discussion of the majority of retail investors, everyone is looking forward to Su Yu and the 'Fortune Road' seat...

At this moment, the entire trading department of 'Yuhang Investment' Company.

In terms of macro trading strategy, it still avoids the Dragon and Tiger List, gradually builds positions, and patiently waits for the market to have further expectation differences and market resonance, and still maintains silence to the outside world.

At this moment, Su Yu, after finishing the company's affairs, has been accompanied by Dai Lingna.

Came to the place agreed with Yang Hao to further discuss the other party's intention to acquire the 'Qianjiang East Suburb River Bank Land' in his hands.