Chapter 311 Future Investment Direction!
"Have the documents been issued?" Su Yu asked.
"There is no clear document yet," Lin Antu said, "but judging from the market information I collected, the wind is already blowing in this direction."
Su Yu nodded slightly, thought for a while, and said: "The reform of the mixed system of state-owned enterprises is always going on. There are hot topics in the market from time to time. The target is difficult to grasp. The chance of participating is not great. It is what you call 'military-civilian integration' This line is worth noting. The path of securitization of military assets, and even the entire policy of strengthening the military and the reform of military industry enterprises, are likely to be put on the agenda soon under the current macroeconomic background.”
"Yes!" Lin Antu nodded, "I think so too."
"I will discuss it with everyone in the fund trading department and the analysis room." Su Yu said, "What about other market information? What will the central bank do next...?"
Lin Antu replied: "Apart from the central bank's release of a 500 billion reverse repurchase quota in order to alleviate the liquidity crisis of the banking industry amid the shrinkage of off-balance sheet assets, there has been no other news for the time being. I guess... there won't be any at the end of this year. There are other measures to release money. Generally speaking, from a macro perspective, market capital is still tight.”
"It seems that during the short period at the end of the year, it will be difficult for the market to move." Su Yu made corresponding judgments based on the information collected by Lin Antu.
"Oh, by the way, Mr. Su..."
Lin Antu paused and then said: "In terms of real estate, the recent trend seems to be changing, and regulations should be relaxed!"
Su Yu chuckled and said: "This is to be expected. If we don't let go, local finances will be tight. Moreover, the real estate economy drives urban construction and national infrastructure construction. In the entire macro-urbanization strategy, "
Real estate has too many associated interests and industries.
In addition, after the tax reform, local governments rely heavily on revenue from land sales. It is simply unrealistic to truly and continuously tighten regulatory policies in this industry.
So, in Su Yu's opinion...
As long as local fiscal revenue is tied to the real estate economy, as long as the macro-strategy of 'urbanization construction' has not reached the limit of development, and as long as the industry can still squeeze out new demand, then this industry will not die and will It continues to fluctuate back and forth in the relaxation and tightening of macroeconomic controls.
What's more, at the current stage, the national urbanization rate has just passed 60%.
The desire of farmers and workers to move into cities is still strong.
In other words, he believes that the potential demand for real estate at this time is still strong. In this way, when the industry's macro-control gradually shifts from tightening to loosening, the real estate industry will definitely see an increase in both volume and price in the future. situation.
In fact, the development of history is indeed like this!
"Mr. Su is very optimistic about future real estate development?" Lin Antu asked, "But the national housing price level is already not low. If it goes up, the potential will be running out, right?"
"The potential of housing prices and demand are directly proportional." Su Yu said, "How big the potential of housing prices is depends on how much market demand can be stimulated. Generally speaking, 'real estate' drives the entire infrastructure and urbanization. Construction, and even the entire macroeconomic path, are still very stable and there are no problems.”
"In this way, infrastructure and real estate will continue to expand under the circumstances of further relaxation of macroeconomic control."
"It should be a better performance."
"It's just this field..."
Su Yu paused and continued: "Both the core stocks and the sectors are very large. If there is not enough incremental funds to promote it, I am afraid that it will not be able to set off a sustained big market."
"So, although there are opportunities in this field, the conditions for the market to explode are not yet mature."
"Of course, there must be better stories and performance expectations to continue to stimulate."
"Anyway..." Su Yu smiled, "The market intelligence data collected by Director Lin is still very useful for our macro investment strategy judgment."
The two talked for a while about the impact of market information on investment direction.
Later, Lin Antu talked about some important news that happened in Yuhang recently, as well as some inside information he had learned through information channels, and then exited Su Yu's office, preparing to upload relevant information to the company's intranet. Make a backup.
After Lin Antu left.
Su Yu rested for a while and then came to the company's internal trading room.
When the two markets have closed, traders are seen reviewing the trading with their heads down, summarizing today's trading operations, sorting out the entire market evolution, and deducing possible follow-up results based on the company's intranet information, online public information and other data. Market conditions change.
"How's the market going today?"
Su Yu stood beside Li Meng and asked with a smile.
Li Meng raised his head and saw that it was him, smiled and said: "The market conditions in the two cities are still very sluggish. Although the index has temporarily stopped falling, the acceptance of popular stocks is still poor, active funds are withdrawing, and the market volume is also further declining. , I feel that the market has not fallen through.”
"and……"
Li Meng paused and then said: "The situation of Shanghai being strong and deeply weak is happening again."
"Judging from the overall market retracement in the past few days, the GEM has suffered a huge decline, while the Shanghai Stock Index has suffered a relatively shallow decline."
"It feels like there are signs that market funds are gathering in the direction of the main board for risk aversion, especially in real estate, consumption, and infrastructure. They appear to be very resilient amid the retracement of the two cities."
"Yes!" Su Yu nodded slightly and continued to ask, "What about holding positions?"
Li Meng replied: "Both funds have maintained their minimum positions. The current drawdown of the fund's net value is limited, and all risks are still under control."
“In the real estate direction, according to the information collected by Director Lin, both high-level officials and various localities are showing signs of macro-control and loosening restrictions on the real estate market.” Su Yu said, “This may be the reason why real estate and infrastructure have shown obvious resilience. But I feel that the market as a whole is currently lacking in funds. Even if there is a basic logic for expected changes in such a large-volume sector, without sufficient incremental funding support, I am afraid it will be difficult to go far and will not be sustainable. Moreover, the index is obviously not truly real. It’s hard to say that these two temporarily resistant sectors will not continue to fall, so it’s not the time to make plans yet, what do you think?”
"With all the people in the house, can An's eggs be completed?" Li Meng said, "I agree with your opinion. Even if we want to make a layout, it can only be done after the index drops completely. Although the current market sentiment is already in the downturn range, There is still a long way to go before the ultimate freezing point of emotions.”
"Yes!" Su Yu continued to nod and asked, "What about the free subscription and redemption of the 'Yuhang No. 1' fund? Are there any investors who have redeemed their shares?"
Li Meng replied: "Yes, the largest investor in our 'Yuhang No. 1' fund, Mr. Lin Yaozu, who holds the largest share of the 'Yuhang No. 1' fund, redeemed half of his investment shares. Of course, in his After redeeming the shares, the vacated investment quota was snapped up by investors within half a minute.”
"The coal industry has been extremely difficult this year. The Lin family's Wufeng Coal Industry must have suffered a lot of losses. It must be because the group's capital chain is tight, so it had to redeem half of its investment share to make up for the losses in the main business." Su Yu said, "What about him? Are no other investors redeeming their shares anymore?"
Li Meng shook his head and said: "No, no matter online or offline, investors in the entire market still have high expectations for our company's fund products. I have even received many important investments from us. Customers called us and everyone suggested that we open a larger fund product.”
“Bite off more than we can chew,” Su Yu said. “For a private equity company like ours, product performance is the lifeline. Blindly pursuing scale will only result in falling behind, which is detrimental to our development.”
"Yes!" Li Meng nodded, "I think so too."
While the two were talking, 5:30 pm arrived, and the dragon and tiger rankings of the two cities were announced.
There are only a dozen stocks on the list, and among the stocks on the list, well-known hot money and institutional seats are all invisible. The ebb of the really smart active funds in the market is very obvious.
Among them, there was still one stock that attracted Su Yu's attention.
That is the ‘Kumho Group’, which resumed trading and changed its name through a backdoor merger with Ancai Paper. Today is the second trading day of Kumho Group’s backdoor listing. Unsurprisingly, it closed at the daily limit, and its market value jumped over 15 billion.
"Kumho Group's stock is still worth paying attention to."
Su Yu stared at the data on the Dragon and Tiger List, pondered for a moment, and said: "With its resumption of trading and market attention, in the context of the relaxation of macro-control of real estate in various places, the room for premium that can be created is probably not small. In theory, "It may also lead to other real estate stocks to repair their valuations."
"If it can really stimulate the entire market sentiment, the pursuit of the real estate sector will be intense."
"Then it's okay for us to intervene in some positions in advance."
"Okay!" Li Meng responded, "We will focus on this check."
"Oh, and..." Su Yu paused and remembered something, "In the information collected by Director Lin, there is some important information about the field of military investment. Please take the time to read it, and then we can discuss this direction again. Possible investment opportunities.”
"Military industry?" Li Meng was a little surprised.
Su Yu nodded slightly and said: "Yes, the deepening reform of military industrial enterprises should be in progress. Coupled with the macro strategy of 'strengthening the army', the country's investment in this aspect will definitely increase in the future, regardless of The space for policy expectations and the path of asset securitization in this regard should be worth looking forward to. "
“Although this field is not very popular with mainstream funds due to the limited information disclosure, excessive news-driven influence, variability of performance, and lack of clear benchmarks in valuation, it is precisely These reasons have created a natural market flexibility in this field, as well as a naturally high gaming value.”
"If this field can blow a gust of wind..."
"Then, if we take the lead, the profits should be very generous."
"After all, in this field, in terms of the logic of stock price increases, the dominance of emotion is far greater than the dominance of performance. There is relatively no ceiling in terms of speculation space."
"Okay!" Li Meng responded, "I'll study it carefully."
This year's performance and market trends, no matter how brilliant, are now a thing of the past.
Standing at the current time point, both of them believe that the first priority is to focus on the future and set the macro strategic direction for investment next year.
Only in this way will you not be confused.
Only by preparing in advance can we see clearly and grasp the opportunities before they come.
After setting the basic direction strategy, in the next few trading days, Su Yu, Li Meng, and the core members of the fund trading department and the analysis department began to gradually collect more market information, research and analyze stocks in related fields, and set investment targets in these two directions.
And as the entire fund trading department turns its attention to next year's investment layout.
The market index, also in the context of lack of macro funds, continued to shrink and fall, and once again approached the low point of the previous period due to the negative impact of the "IPO restart".
At the same time, the Issuance and Examination Committee approved the first batch of listed companies after the IPO restart.
Further blood draw on the market's stock funds.
Finally, on the last trading day of the year, December 27, the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index was fixed at 2136.37 points, with almost no increase throughout the year, maintaining a bottom oscillation pattern, while the ChiNext Index was fixed at 1134.65 points, and the increase was nearly doubled compared with the beginning of the year.
Facing such a year-end closing situation.
Various investment institutions that are heavily invested in the GEM are naturally full of red faces and extremely happy, while investment institutions that are heavily invested in the main board are extremely depressed and feel that they have invested in vain.
Of course, no matter which situation it is, everyone is optimistic about next year and the future market.
After the final battle of the year...
Seeing the upcoming New Year's Day holiday, whether it is Su Yu, Li Meng, or the core managers of various departments of "Yuhang Investment", they have no time to rest, and their schedules and work have been fully scheduled.
Among them, Liang Bin and He Qian from the venture capital department.
After "Yuhang Investment" and "Tianqi Lithium" officially signed an investment agreement, they have personally fully connected with this project and joined Liu Wei's team in Australia to fully snipe Knockwood's acquisition of Talison.
And Li Meng went to Yanjing to participate in the industry's annual fund summit as the main fund manager of "Yuhang No. 1" and "Yuhang No. 2" funds, and took back the honor of "Yuhang Investment".
As for Su Yu…
At the same time that Li Meng and Li Xiaoling set off for Yanjing, he was also invited to Shanghai, accompanied by Dai Lingna, to attend an international financial institution investment summit held on December 31. As a representative of the ‘Yuhang Investment’ institution, he met with representatives of well-known institutions from all over the world and got to know various business figures in Shanghai.