Chapter 187 Market Discussion

Then, 3 o'clock came and the two markets closed.

The Shanghai Index fell by 1.95%, the Shenzhen Index fell by 2.21%, and the ChiNext Index fell by 2.52%. The turnover of the two cities increased significantly month-on-month, reaching an annual record near the 100 billion mark.

Of course, what few people know is that Guangda Securities alone contributed more than 10 billion in trading volume today.

While the index fell across the board, the index amplitude and trading volume both hit annual highs.

Except for the "Shanghai local stocks" sector, which was heavily targeted by funds at the end of the trading day, all other industry sectors and concept sectors saw large outflows of funds, and the overall market investment sentiment appeared relatively pessimistic.

After the close...

Faced with such a huge market performance, Guangda Securities suddenly suspended trading and its Hong Kong stocks plummeted.

Throughout the market, various rumors about Guangda Securities manipulating the market, and even maliciously going long or short the market, began to spread further.

Moreover, within this time period.

The CEO of Guangda Securities, who used delaying tactics to delay the closing of trading, has once again received a supervisory call from the main leader in charge of the China Securities Regulatory Commission.

The other party strongly requested Guangda Securities to issue an announcement explaining the reasons for the abnormal market fluctuations today.

Give the market an explanation.

At the same time, the transaction monitoring team from the exchange has also fully settled in the Investment and Trading Strategy Department of Guangda Securities and has taken over relevant data.

So, in this case, 4 p.m.

Guangda Securities issued an explanation announcement, and regulators also released investigation documents on the abnormal trading of Guangda Securities, which caused extreme market fluctuations.

And at this moment, the entire market is filled with confused investors.

Only then did I understand the reason for the extreme market volatility today.

"Oh my god, I never expected this to happen!" Within Yuhang Investment, in the trading team that was reviewing intraday trading and market changes, Li Meng was shocked when he saw the document announcement issued by Guangda Securities and the China Securities Regulatory Commission. , "It's really an oolong trade."

"It's not just an unfounded market situation." Su Yu looked at the document announcements issued by Guangda Securities and the China Securities Regulatory Commission at the same time, sighed, and said, "And...according to the principle of information disclosure today, Guangda Securities has only now disclosed The real situation is that it has been violated. Let’s look at the impact of this incident on the market and the investigation by the China Securities Regulatory Commission. In any case, with today’s market fluctuations, it will definitely not be possible if some people are not dealt with.”

"I saw on the online forum that everyone was discussing that Guangda Securities did this on purpose." Wang Can said in the trading team, "They all said that they were manipulating the market, affecting the index through the underlying stocks, and thus arbitraging on stock index futures. , and... Today, the trading volume of the CSI 300 stock index futures is indeed overwhelming. All the longs and shorts on the market have been robbed, and countless people have stopped their losses and liquidated their positions. "

"It shouldn't be done intentionally," Li Meng said. "Guangda Securities is a large brokerage institution with a formal state-owned background. It is not a private arbitrage institution in the market. They will never do anything just to arbitrage on the Shanghai Index futures. In such a big battle, it is not clear what the real interests and the truth are. It is not clear whether the traders operating underneath had any other ideas that caused this mistake. "

"Ignore these for now..." Su Yu said during the discussion, "Although this matter has a profound impact on the trading system and risk management and control of the entire domestic financial market, its impact on the trend of the market itself should still be limited. , let’s talk about your views and market analysis on the market’s follow-up!”

For more than a month, he has basically been teaching team members step by step how to analyze.

From what points should we start to understand the market.

Now, it is time for everyone to apply what they have learned, independently analyze the market, analyze the market situation, and make corresponding follow-up investment strategies.

"Liu Yuan, you speak first!"

Su Yu paused, seeing that everyone was hesitant to speak, and then started to call the names.

In addition to the three initial members of the trading team, including him, Li Meng, and Wang Can, among the six newly recruited traders, he was the most optimistic about this girl who was slightly younger than him and had a strong ability to understand market changes.

Liu Yuan glanced at Su Yu, pondered for a moment, and replied: "Today's market, although the market sentiment and index trends are ugly, and the GEM index has fallen below the upward trend line, and there is a risk of continuous plummeting, but based on the volume, Considering the performance aspect, in fact, the market is not lacking in capacity at this position.”

"Today, the transaction volume almost reached 100 billion."

"Although there is the influence of buying volume caused by Guangda Securities' misoperation, the average trading volume of the previous five trading days has increased by nearly 25 billion, indicating that today's trading volume, excluding the influence of Guangda Securities' buying and selling, should be It’s still a substantial increase.”

"And according to what Mr. Su said..."

"Except for the GEM, the position of the main board of the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index should be at a historical bottom stage where the hold-up is extremely serious, it is difficult to release energy, and the valuation is extremely low."

"Then, releasing such a large amount of energy at this stage should be considered a bottom-up release."

"In other words, regardless of whether Guangda Securities' operation today was intentional or not, today's extreme fluctuations in the market can be regarded as an exchange of chips in the range from 2056 points to 2216 points, making the originally locked chips in this range today Massive loosening.”

“When the chips are stuck in this point range, the chips willing to sell are loosened on a large scale.”

"That means the upward pressure on the index from its current position to the 2216 point range will be much smaller."

"Looking at the bottom of the index, after the sharp declines on June 24 and June 25, the Shanghai Stock Index has been fluctuating between 2000 points and 2100 points in the past one or two months. This should be a very solid bottom for chips to gather, unless The market suddenly encountered a major negative event like a 'black swan', otherwise it would have been difficult to fall below it."

"This also means that the index's falling space and probability of decline are actually very small, while the upward range and upward probability are both very large."

"At least... I think that today's long upper shadow line caused by the misoperation of Guangda Securities, the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index can recover in the coming time."

"Looking at the GEM index again, after falling below 1,200 points, it has become oversold in the short term."

"Coupled with the ChiNext Index, when it broke through in the early stage, the range from 1,000 to 1,200 points was actually the range where the entire volume could be concentrated and amplified, and the range of high chip exchanges that had been consolidated through repeated stepping back and forth, and then adjusting downward... was also a decline. The kinetic energy is much smaller than the upward kinetic energy.”

"So, in my opinion, although the index is going ugly today, it is more like a market wash and a short-winding move."

"Moreover, on the Main Board's 'Shanghai Local Stocks' section, there was obviously large-scale fund hunting at the end of today's trading; on the GEM, all the popular stocks and popular concept sectors in the early stage have been adjusted relatively fully, and the prices of these stocks and sectors have been relatively sufficient. The long-term support logic and expectations still exist. It can be seen from the Dragon and Tiger List in recent days that stocks with strong expectations, such as Internet Speed ​​Technology and Fenda Technology, have seen hot money recede, but institutions have not. "

"That is to say, the core sectors and concept stocks that drive the Shanghai Stock Index and GEM upwards have not been cut off and ended. They can continue to have a hot and continuous profit-making effect."

"So... in general, I am bullish on the market outlook and think we should maintain a relatively aggressive investment strategy."

After listening to Liu Yuan's market analysis, Su Yu nodded slightly, picked up her intraday trading report, and said: "This is what you put into your own hands at the lowest point in the session, when the market was panicking, and then subtracted from the midday high. The reason for all the chips? Yes, the opinions and actions are consistent, which is worthy of praise.”

In general, Liu Yuan's market analysis ignores some market macro conditions and changes in external financial markets.

But it is still logical and organized, and is basically consistent with his judgment on the market.

Of course, this also shows that this girl is indeed talented.

After all, Su Yu still remembered that when the other party first came here more than a month ago, in addition to being able to execute the trading instructions to the letter, his understanding of the market was really limited to the rise and fall of the stock price and the K-line pattern. superior.

"Thank you, Mr. Su, for your compliment." Liu Yuan responded and stopped talking.

Su Yu nodded and smiled, then looked past her and turned to Zhu Tianyang, who had passed the examination and had been transferred to the trading department not long ago, and asked: "Tianyang, what do you think?"

"Liu Yuan and I are consistent in judging the direction of the Shanghai Index."

Zhu Tianyang replied: "It's just the GEM... I have a different opinion. The growth rate of the GEM index, even though it has been corrected for many days recently, is still far higher than that of the Shanghai Index. Currently, active funds in the market come from the popular constituent stocks related to the GEM. , a large-scale ebb, the main line of speculation in the "Shanghai Stock Exchange Local Stocks" section of the main board has emerged, and funds have gathered here on a large scale. When the incremental funds and active funds in the entire market cannot support the two lines in parallel, it is impossible to achieve a continuous general rise in the market. ”

"I think the adjustment in the GEM index may not end so soon."

"And for some time to come, there will be no fundamental change in Shanghai's strong and deep weak situation."

"Of course, when the overall incremental funds in the market cannot support the overall market situation, the flexibility of the GEM index is still better than that of the main board."

"Once the GEM index is adjusted in place..."

"The subsequent market style and the main continuity of the market are expected to have to be transferred to the core concept sectors of the GEM and the leading stocks that were strong in the early stage."

"Well, not bad!" Su Yu smiled and nodded, "The market price will be based on the quantity first."

Zhu Tianyang's insights can be regarded as a supplement to Liu Yuan's thoughts. Of course, they are also more in-depth and precise.

"Wang Can, what do you think?" After Su Yu asked the two of them, he turned and stared at Wang Can.

Wang Can thought for a while and said: "Since Mr. Su, you said that the market situation is based on quantity first, and there is no market without quantity, and the current market sentiment is not very good, and it is difficult to drive more incremental funds to enter the market, then I think Whether it is the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index or the ChiNext Index, it may be difficult to achieve a continuous upward trend, and most of the market will still be dominated by shocks for some time to come.”

"Li Meng, where are you?" Su Yu turned around and continued to ask.

Li Meng replied: "I think whether the index fluctuates or goes up, at least there is not much room for downwards. In other words, in terms of market macro, there is not much risk."

"If this is the case, then we should be a little more aggressive in our operations."

"Also, at this time, since the new increase in the market can not maintain the general rising market situation, it can only bring local market conditions and seesaw effect market conditions."

"Then we should be light on the index and heavy on individual stocks."

“As long as the investment logic and expectations of the stocks we hold still exist, I think there is nothing to worry about.”