Chapter 654 The Austrian Threat Theory

After William I's trip to London, the international situation became clearer. The relationship between Britain and Pulau has warmed up, and Russia and Austria, which have just ended their alliance, are leaning against each other again, and the choice to decide the future situation of Europe is in the hands of the French.

If the Paris government supported the Russians, the war would have been decided in advance. On the other hand, if you support the Commonwealth of Pubo, then you won't know until you have fought this war.

Versailles, Napoleon IV is very satisfied with the current situation. Prussia and Russia are vying to win over France first. This feeling of influencing the future direction of Europe is really wonderful.

Foreign Secretary Dumbledore: "Your Majesty, the Russian delegation has suddenly changed its itinerary and cancelled its trip to London. It is expected to arrive in Paris in three days."

Napoleon IV smiled, knowing that the tsarist government was in a hurry. The comprehensive national strength of the Russian Empire is better than that of the Popo Federation, but the war compares not only the comprehensive national strength, but also the external force.

The Pope Federation has already won the support of the British. If it has the support of the French, even if Russia has the support of Austria, it will still suffer.

The harsh reality tells the Russians that it is absolutely impossible to have no money. In terms of financial resources, the two major donors of Britain and France can definitely provide more funds than Austria.

To put it bluntly, this war is a Russian war, not an Austrian war. The Vienna government can support them, but it is impossible to invest indefinitely.

Unless the war can be ended in a short period of time, the last thing to do is financial resources. Having learned the lessons of the last war, the Tsarist government no longer has the illusion of a quick victory.

Napoleon IV shook his head: "It's just now, the Russians are not stupid!"

The Russian embassy arrived before William I's visit to Paris, apparently not too late. But Napoleon IV said it was too late.

There used to be opportunities for France and Russia to get closer to each other, but unfortunately neither side cherished them. This is a problem left over from history. The contradiction between the two countries brought about by the anti-French war was magnified again in the war in the Near East.

Napoleon III once wanted to ease French-Russian relations, but was obstructed by Britain and Austria, and finally ended in failure.

After the Pude territorial transaction, France and Russia lost the joint interest hub, and the last chance of alliance was shattered.

There is no regret medicine in this world. With the changing international situation, France has no need to form an alliance with the Russians.

The young Napoleon IV was also ambitious and wanted to surpass his father and establish greater achievements.

So what France needs is a little brother, not a competitor.

It is impossible for the Russian Empire to put down the air of being a younger brother, and even if Alexander II was able to take the risk, the Russian people would not agree.

Dumbledore, the foreign secretary, waved his hand: "Russian diplomacy has always been more casual, nothing surprising.

This was the case from the alliance between Nicholas I and Austria, to the pro-Pussian-Austrian strategy implemented after Alexander II succeeded to the throne, to the later reversal of Prussia and the breakdown of the Russian-Austrian alliance.

The diplomatic strategy of the tsarist government was greatly influenced by personal will. Not only is there no long-term plan, but there are often changes and even self-contradictions. "

Seeming to realize something, Dumbledore's decisive choice stopped there. The foreign policy of the tsarist government was chaotic, and the foreign policy of the French government was actually not much better.

Among the major European powers, Britain and Austria have the best continuation of their foreign policies. Britain and Austria have maintained a continental balance policy, which has continued since the end of the Anti-French War to the present.

Although there have been changes in the middle, the general direction has never changed. The current European political landscape is the product of the British and Austrian "European Continental Balance" policy.

Napoleon IV nodded: "Forget it, this is also a good thing. The Russians are here, so I can negotiate the price with the Commonwealth of Pope.

The European continent is too small to hold so many great powers. One Austria, one England is enough for us, and there will never be a fourth pole. "

The cake is so big, and the three divisions can no longer satisfy everyone's appetite. If there is another division of the cake, no one will welcome it.

On the issue of suppressing the rise of latecomers, Britain, France, and Austria can be said to have the same position. Whether supporting the Commonwealth or supporting the Russian Empire, there is a precondition - they cannot be allowed to grow and develop.

Britain, France and Austria are divided into two waves this time. It seems that it is because of interests. In fact, everyone has already reached a tacit understanding in their hearts: no one of Prussia and Russia can easily win the war.

In this round of diplomatic competition, the Russians lost from the start. No matter how hard the tsarist government tried, it was impossible to get more support.

Dumbledore, Foreign Secretary: "Your Majesty, there is news from London that William I is seeking an alliance of great powers, and the British have clearly rejected them.

If nothing else, William I will also seek an alliance with us. This issue is of great importance, and we must be careful. "

The "Prussian-Prussian alliance", if it was 20 or 30 years ago, the French government would like to have an ally to share the pressure. Even more than a decade ago, the French government would have agreed without hesitation.

It's different now. Forget about the British, French, and Austrian alliances. France also has a Spanish ally. The demand for allies is no longer so hungry.

Napoleon IV sneered: "There is nothing to consider. If the Commonwealth of Popo wants to form an alliance with us, it must first defeat the Russians. If they lose the war, what qualifications do they have to negotiate an alliance with us?"

Now that the Franco-Prussian alliance is formed, what benefits can the French government get besides assuming its obligations?

Even if the Commonwealth of Pope was victorious, Napoleon IV had to weigh the pros and cons of the Franco-Prussian alliance. At least the attitudes of Britain and Austria, they have to consider.

...

At the end of the grand welcome ceremony, the crown prince Alexandrovich (Alexander III), who visited Paris again, showed a deep sadness on his face.

The seemingly grand welcome ceremony was mixed with a strong sense of alienation. There is no doubt that the Parisians do not welcome them.

If it wasn't for the Bonaparte family who wanted to integrate into the European royal circle and attached great importance to etiquette, I'm afraid they wouldn't be too lazy to do it.

At the beginning, it was a disillusionment, and Alexandrovich had no hope for the next negotiation.

Originally, according to his intention, the first stop was to visit Denmark, and the Nordic Federation was regarded as the focus of public relations.

It is a pity that the crown prince of the Russian Empire is not in his turn to call the shots. Even though he has been involved in government affairs for many years, his diplomatic voice is still low.

Winning over Britain and France seems to pay off handsomely and can directly lock the victory, but in fact there is no possibility of success at all.

The most critical issue is the "chips", the tsarist government simply can't come up with the interests that make them tempted.

Take gold as collateral? Sorry, the Tsar dared not. Britain and France could not trust the Russians, nor could the tsarist government trust Britain and France.

Unlike Austria that is right in front of them, if the Austrians default, they can still fight for real. The cost of the war was clearly above the pledged gold, and these benefits were not enough to cause the Vienna government to default.

Britain and France are different. They are thousands of miles away, and the Russians can't reach them at all. If one day they are in a bad mood and break the contract, the Russian economy will collapse immediately, and there is no chance for revenge.

Territorial mortgage? Not to mention the mortgage, even if it is sold or ceded, they are willing to give it to Britain and France, but they will not dare to ask for it.

Under normal circumstances, no European country would like to be an ally with the Russians. Britain and France are colonial empires, and there is no shortage of enclaves at all.

Diplomacy without interests is hooliganism. Crown Prince Alexandrovich was just doing his best, and naturally he was not in high spirits.

"His Royal Highness, William I will arrive in Paris tomorrow. The French have arranged the welcome banquet together, clearly because they are uneasy and kind." An accompanying foreign ministry official said indignantly.

After a moment of silence, Alexandrovich said coldly, "Just say I'm not feeling well, and I won't be attending the banquet tomorrow."

As Crown Prince Alexandrovich is also full of arrogance, how could he be willing to suffer such humiliation?

As the crown prince, Alexandrovich is now only a grand duke, and William I is the king, so they will be one grade lower in terms of identity.

At the moment when the Russian-Prussian War is about to break out, who knows what news will be compiled by the outside newspapers for such an untimely meeting?

"But, Your Highness. If you don't go, the outside world will..."

Before he could finish speaking, Alexandrovich interrupted: "Not so much, but what will the outside world say? It's nothing more than choreographing some jokes that we are afraid of.

Just based on the relationship between France and Russia, do you think the French newspapers will say good things about us? If you want to hear good things from people, you can just throw money at it, which works better than anything. "

The more he learned about France, the less confident Aleksandrovich became. Back then, for the Polish independence movement, the French actually organized a volunteer army.

Although this volunteer army did not step out of the country in the end, its deep malice towards Russia could not be concealed. In this context, if you want to conduct a public opinion war in Paris, you have no choice but to spend money.

If France was in a republican era and public opinion could influence government decision-making, it would be a waste of money. Obviously not now, no matter how much money is spent, it will be wasted.

Alexandrovich deliberately forced William I, and William I was also avoiding Alexandrovich. The two seemed to have reached a tacit understanding and would never appear in the same place.

It seems to have seen through the sinister intentions of the French. Both of them are deliberately avoiding direct conflict, which disappointed the melon eaters who wanted to watch the show.

In the Palace of Versailles, Napoleon IV was meeting with William I. The scene was full of joy, as if it was a reunion of good friends who hadn't seen each other for many years.

On the other hand, representatives of France and Prussia are starting to quarrel over their interests. Seeing that a breakthrough could not be made in a short period of time, Jeffrey Friedman, the foreign minister of the Commonwealth of Pope, decisively changed the subject.

"Your Excellency, the current international situation is not only bad for us, but also bad for your country."

French Foreign Minister Dumbledore shook his head: "Count, there is no need to be alarmist here. The current international political situation, for France, is the best period in the past 100 years.

We have survived the most difficult days, not to mention now! A little threat, not worth mentioning at all. "

This is a fact. For nearly a hundred years, France has been in the vortex of European politics and has been hostile and targeted by everyone.

Jeffrey Friedman picked up his coffee, took a sip, and asked, "Really? Don't you feel threatened by Austria, whose strength has grown rapidly?"

Dumbledore sneered: "Austria is indeed very powerful and developing rapidly, but it cannot threaten the great France.

On the contrary, it is your country that needs to face the pressure of Austria, the border between Prussia and Austria is so long, and now the Vienna government is supporting the Russians. "

The Austrian threat was naturally felt by the French government, but it was not as obvious as the Commonwealth of Pope. The border between the two countries is not long, and France is confused about its own military strength.

Self-confidence, naturally not much.

Jeffrey Friedman took out the prepared materials and handed them to Dumbledore.

"This is part of the Austrian intelligence we have collected. Your Excellency can take a look."

Now that you have offended Austria, let's just do it to the end. In order to prevent the Vienna government from taking sides in the next war, the Berlin government naturally wanted to find an enemy for Austria.

Throughout the world, only Britain and France have the strength to contain Austria. The British were too cunning to be fooled, and they were so far away from Austria that they felt no threat from Austria at all.

The French as neighbors are different. The two countries have always been competitors, and they will care about any troubles next door.