Chapter 518: Cold Winter

St. Petersburg, since the failure of Crown Prince Alexandrovich's trip to Austria, the tsarist government has realized that the Russian-Austrian alliance has come to an end.

Frozen three feet, not a day's cold. With the passage of time, the contradictions between Russia and Austria have been accumulating day by day.

Previously, the two governments relied on the covenant to suppress discordant voices, and now they can no longer suppress them.

Russian-Austrian relations have changed since the accession of Alexander II. The personal inclinations of the emperor of a monarchy have a political influence that cannot be underestimated.

After the outbreak of the Russian-Prussian War, Austria did not fully support the Russians. In addition to its interests, it was more dissatisfied with the tsarist government.

No major country is willing to be someone's younger brother, especially after the balance of power between the two sides has changed. The initial game between Russia and Austria was actually a battle for alliance dominance.

What Alexander II did was right, but the bureaucrats of the tsarist government failed to live up to their expectations and lost the Russian-Prussian War. Since then, the Russian Empire has turned from prosperity to decline and lost its alliance dominance.

If the tsarist government is willing to admit defeat, then the matter will be over, and the Russian-Austrian alliance remains the most important political power group in Europe.

Obviously this is impossible, and the arrogance of the Russian Empire cannot be defeated in one battle. Turning over the long history of the Russian Empire, worse times than now have passed, how could the Tsar really give up hegemony on the European continent?

Franz has little interest in continental hegemony, but Austria's geographical location has already been determined, and it is simply unavoidable in the struggle for continental hegemony.

The size of Austria is sitting there, even if they say they are not interested, no one dares to believe it. That being the case, it can only bite the bullet. It is against this background that France and Austria are now jointly carving up European hegemony.

For the tsarist government, the collapse of the Russian-Austrian alliance was indeed a blow, but the alliance between the two countries still has a few years to expire, and there is no threat in the short term.

The most important thing now is to find a donor who is willing to pay in time, otherwise the reform of Alexander II will not go on.

The ideal choice is, of course, Austria, where the tsarist government could use foreign debt to tie the two countries closer together. Now the Vienna government dares to give up the Russo-Austrian alliance because they don't owe enough.

If the debt of the Tsarist government to Austria is not the current 183 million Aegis, but 1.83 billion Aegis, it is estimated that no matter what, the Vienna government can only hold on.

According to the current situation, when the Russian-Austrian alliance expires, the debts owed by the tsarist government will have to be repaid.

This is not something that Alexander II can delay, the Austrians just take a cut from the Russian tariff, and there are more than 12 million Aegis each year.

The higher the tariff was set by the Tsarist government, the faster this repayment was made. In addition, there are some mineral resources to compensate in kind, and Russia is still able to repay more than 90% of its payable debts every year.

Mortgage loan, not allowed by Alexander II. Otherwise, Russia and Austria will immediately turn their faces. When Austria closes the trade channel between the two countries, Russia will soon experience an economic crisis.

There is no way, this is determined by geographical location. If Austria blocked the door, more than 70 percent of Russia's exports would be lost.

If the grain in Ukraine does not go through the Dardanelles, it cannot be transported by land to St. Petersburg, and then loaded on ships for export, right?

According to the current international situation, if Russia and Austria really turn their faces, the Russian Empire will be completely blocked. Austria encouraged behind it and sponsored two ironclad ships, and Prussia dared to block the Baltic Sea.

Now is the age of ironclads, and the pile of broken ships in the Russian Navy can be dismantled and used as firewood. Most of them are wooden warships that have not been updated for more than 20 years. What else do you want?

It's not that Alexander II didn't pay attention to the navy, and he didn't know that the warships were going to be replaced. It was because the government had no money. Since the outbreak of the Crimean War, the Tsarist government's finances have never been better.

Poo was not worried about approaching Alexander II. Although the Kingdom of Prussia had abandoned the strategy of unifying the German region, Austria had not yet. This was a hurdle that could not be overcome.

Alexander II's relationship asked: "How are you talking with the British, will they give us a loan?"

This loan was extraordinary. The Russians paid it back with grain. If the British agreed to this loan, the Tsarist government would have to send 1.2 million tons of wheat, 400,000 tons of corn, 300,000 tons of barley to England every year...

It seems that it is a loan, but in fact it is better to say that it is a grain export. However, in the international agricultural product market, the competitiveness of Russian agricultural products is too low.

If the direct dumping is carried out at a low price, then the international grain price will be knocked down, and the relatively high cost of planting Russian agricultural products will become unprofitable.

To avoid the worst, Russian economists have proposed bundling loans to contract a country's food imports at prices below the international market.

The reduced profit is the property cost of the loan. It's better than fighting a price war with a competitor and finally making a profit at a loss.

"Your Majesty, the British demand that the loan amount be reduced by half, and the price of the grain offset should be reduced by one-fifth, which is equivalent to 70% of the current international grain export price."

Foreign Minister Clarence Ivanov's answer greatly changed Alexander II's face. Grain export is not a lucrative industry. If it is 30% off, the cost will not be recovered.

Alexander II asked reluctantly: "What if we promise to join the free trade system and pegg the ruble to the British pound?"

Clarence Ivanov replied

: "If this is the case, there is no problem with the loan, but the price of food is still not negotiable.

British grain traders believe that the current international grain price is too high and will drop sharply in the near future, and insist on only accepting 30% off the current market price. "

According to the current market price, the total value of the agricultural products that Russia plans to send into the UK is as high as 38 million pounds. If there is a 30% discount, it will only be 26.6 million pounds, and the difference in the middle is as high as 11.4 million pounds.

Alexandrovich said with a livid face: "The British are blackmailing, and we absolutely cannot accept such conditions!

According to the price of 30% off the market price, we have to be able to profit from grain exports, but will lose a fortune.

Unless the price of grain purchases is further lowered, domestic food prices are already very low, and any further pressure on the people to farm is losing money. "

Grain is a large commodity, and transportation has always been a big problem. The inaccessibility of the Russian Empire and the high transportation costs must be taken into account.

Usually, this part of the cost falls on the farmers who produce the grain. Now if they export at 30% off the market price and fall on the farmers, they can only go bankrupt.

The peasant class is the biggest support group of the tsar, which is the cornerstone of the rule. If they are forced to go bankrupt, the rule of the tsarist government will be unstable.

Alexander II sighed, shook his head and said: "The collapse of international food prices has become a foregone conclusion, and the British are not wrong.

The international market is so big, and we have increased grain output by so much. Once it is put on the market, international grain prices will collapse.

To put it bluntly, if all the surplus grains in Russia can be shipped out, even if other grain exporting countries stop exporting, there will be no food panic in Europe. "

This is the sequelae of the land reclamation. Although the domestic land problem has been solved, the overcapacity of grain has also become a serious social problem.

What is even more tragic is that farmers who have just acquired the land are highly motivated to produce, and Russia's grain production is still rising.

As food prices fell, the Russian grain and wine industry began to flourish. But this kind of high-end wine cannot be afforded by ordinary people at all, and the market is very limited. It is impossible to rely on the brewing industry to consume excess grain production capacity.

Aleksandrovich thought for a while and said, "Then guide farmers to switch to commercial crops, and we will plant whatever is lacking in the market.

If domestic grain production is not cut, the international grain market will be burst sooner or later. As far as I know, the Vienna government has already intentionally abolished the agricultural tax.

Their food production costs are already lower than ours, and they have a complete supporting industrial processing chain, so their ability to resist risks is definitely stronger than ours. If a price war breaks out, there will be millions of bankrupt people in China every year. "

Alexander II nodded, he did not suspect that Alexandrovich was exaggerating. This is a fact. Except for Ukraine, the cost of grain production in other lands in Russia is relatively high.

Even in Ukraine, the agricultural production technology is backward due to insufficient development and utilization. Obviously it is black land, but the yield of grain per mu is still not as good as that of Austria.

This is a sequela of the lack of market. In any case, the total population of the European continent is less than 300 million, and the food produced by each country itself meets most of the needs.

The only way to expand the grain export market is to first hit the market with low-priced grains and crush the agricultural production of various countries.

This is what Alexander II originally planned. As long as the agriculture of all countries is destroyed, then Russia will master the lifeline of the European continent.

The plan is a good plan, the only problem is that the Tsarist government is not financially strong. The strength of the competitors is too strong, and they are playing low-price dumping. While destroying the agriculture of various countries, they may also destroy the agriculture of Russia.

In fact, not only did Alexander II have this plan, Franz also made a similar plan, but finally gave up.

There is no way, now is the colonial era, which power lacks a grain-producing land? The local food production is insufficient, can't the colony find a way?

If you can't achieve a monopoly, you can't get along with your wallet if you play low-cost dumping. Now agriculture is still profitable, and there is absolutely no need to make profits at all.

Alexander II felt a little depressed, and said earnestly: "It is necessary to reduce grain production capacity and change to commercial crops, but this cannot be done overnight. Grain planting is relatively simple, and farmers are used to planting.

To change this traditional planting model, we must learn from Austria. Alexandrovich, you have also been to Austria, you should know how well developed their agriculture is. Where is the gap, have you found it? "

Aleksandrovich was lost in thought, he did not stay in Austria for too long, and his knowledge was limited to Vienna, most of the time through the newspapers.

"There should be climate, transportation, agricultural technology, and supporting processing industries. We have no way to make up for the gap in climate, and we can slowly catch up with the last three points."

Alexander II nodded and said, "If that's the case, then we'll have to pay for this loss.

If we do not reach an agreement with the British now, I am afraid that after the autumn harvest in a few months, our grain will not even be able to sell at 30% of the current market price.

If there are no large-scale natural disasters, and when our grain harvest enters the international market, this year is destined to be a cold agricultural winter, and a large number of agricultural products will be unsalable by then.

Anyway, you will lose money by then, so it is better to take a loan first.

Get it. At that time, we can also reduce or exempt agricultural taxes and reduce farmers' losses.

Only when the railway is repaired and the domestic traffic problem is solved will the Russian Empire have a future. Let the British be proud now!

If it weren't for attacking Austria, perhaps the British would not open this condition. They are not short of this batch of cheap grain, and the grain processing industry in the UK is not very developed.

If the London government does not give preferential policies, these grain merchants will not invest in the agro-processing industry. After all, Austria is the hegemon in this field, and they have no advantage. "

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