Chapter 193 Probability
Lu Ming still continued to talk.
"And, as the distance from the sun changes, the asteroid's speed will also change.
So... considering all these changes, after comprehensive calculation based on current data, the time it will reach the closest point to the earth should be 136.5 hours later. "
He Wei was shocked.
Lu Ming raised his head.
"A more accurate time calculation should be between 9:17 and 11:17 on the 19th. This time range is among the doomsday prophecies, that prediction - November 19th It’s 10:17 a.m., plus or minus one hour.”
Lu Ming's expression was solemn as never before.
"So, this asteroid... is the asteroid in the doomsday predictions of the doomsday organization. It can't be wrong."
The time difference is so small that this is almost certain.
And, this also truly shows that the doomsday predictions made by doomsday organizations are indeed not nonsense.
Lu Ming didn't believe that if it was nonsense, how could it be such a coincidence, how could it happen to be so close to the time when the asteroid finally reached its closest point to the earth.
"So...what would happen if such an asteroid really hit the earth?"
He Wei looked at Lu Ming. Lu Ming was silent for a moment and said: "I don't know the specific details. But I can make a rough calculation.
The total mass of this asteroid is about 55 billion tons. If an impact really occurs, its impact speed with the Earth will be about 340 kilometers per second. Then, the energy released by such an impact would be approximately 3.18*10^24 Joules. "
This number is too large and not that intuitive.
"For comparison, about 70 million years ago, the asteroid that may have exterminated the dinosaurs according to research was much larger in size and mass than this asteroid now, but its speed was too slow.
The energy released by that impact was approximately 4.2*10^23 Joules.
In other words, the energy released by this impact will be 7.5 times the energy released by that impact.
If we compare it with the energy released by the Tsar hydrogen bomb, the largest hydrogen bomb made in human history, then the energy released by this asteroid impact is approximately equivalent to... 15 million Tsar hydrogen bombs exploding at the same time. "
Damn it!
For the number 3.18*10^24 Joules, people do not have a very intuitive impression, and they have no feeling in their hearts. But when it comes to Tsar hydrogen bombs, or 15 million Tsar hydrogen bombs, an intuitive impression immediately comes to mind.
Just one Tsarist hydrogen bomb is enough to have a global impact, let alone a full 15 million at this moment.
Not 1,500 pieces, but a full 15 million pieces!
At this moment, several people's breathing was a little rapid, and the same thought appeared in their minds at the same time.
Don't let it hit the earth! Absolutely not! If it really hits the earth, everyone will die!
But what came after this thought was a deep sense of powerlessness.
It was a distant planet from an unknown number of trillions of kilometers away.
It was a rocket with ultra-high speed, even faster than the fastest aerospace and aircraft made by mankind.
How should human civilization resist such an existence? How could you resist?
At this moment, the only thing that human civilization can hope for, the only thing that can be counted on, is that Lu Ming's prediction comes true.
There are errors in the doomsday organization's predictions on this matter. The difference is a thousand miles. Although this asteroid does appear and will be very close to the earth, it will not collide with the earth. It will miss the Earth.
The doomsday predictions made by the doomsday organization and the predictions made by Lu Ming, whichever prediction comes true will determine the ownership of the entire earth.
"Qing Liang, keep in real-time contact with the Asteroid Warning Center and the Disaster Prevention Command. If there is any progress, report it immediately."
"yes."
Although they knew that they could not do anything about it or interfere with it, they still couldn't wait to know every step of the progress.
Lu Ming knew that the appearance of this asteroid would instantly attract the attention of everyone who knew about it. From this moment on, events related to this asteroid will become the first priority.
The importance of anything comes second to this.
Time passed slowly in silence. After a long time, Lu Qingliang suddenly said: "Scientists at the Disaster Prevention Headquarters have proposed a plan. They plan to launch nuclear missiles to intercept the asteroid. Currently, the team of scientists is discussing the feasibility."
The hydrogen bomb is the most powerful weapon at the disposal of human civilization. Facing an asteroid that may hit the earth, it seems very natural to launch a hydrogen bomb to intercept it, or just to change its orbit.
Perhaps a hydrogen bomb could actually play a role in this.
Lu Ming still looked heavy.
He didn't think this approach would be effective.
Sure enough, Lu Qingliang quickly sent back new information.
"The team of scientists explored forty-seven options to use nuclear missiles to intercept the asteroid or change its orbit, but all were rejected. This option is not feasible."
This result was not beyond Lu Ming's expectations at all.
Although this asteroid is only a speck of dust compared to the Earth, it is still too big. The energy it carries is too huge and the speed is too fast.
With humanity's current technology, it is impossible for a rocket carrying a hydrogen bomb to meet it accurately. In other words, it is impossible to launch a hydrogen bomb to this asteroid.
Even if humans have suitable rockets that can launch hydrogen bombs to this asteroid, the power of the hydrogen bombs is too small and it is impossible to change the forward trajectory of the asteroid.
"The Disaster Prevention Command has concluded that with the current technological capabilities of human civilization, it is unable to exert any meaningful influence on this asteroid. We can only let it go."
Lu Ming had come to this conclusion very early. However, Lu Ming's conclusions are not rigorous and have not undergone rigorous calculations. Most of them are just intuitive. Now, the Disaster Prevention Command has reached a different conclusion.
It is rigorous enough and supported by a large amount of data and evidence. This conclusion cannot be overturned.
If they say there is no way, then there really is no way.
Lu Ming sighed slightly.
Why doesn't he hope that those great scientists, people with top wisdom in various fields, can find solutions that he can't think of. But the reality is that no one can do anything about it.
News from the Disaster Prevention Command continues.
"The command's strategy has changed from resisting possible asteroid impacts to, if an impact is inevitable, preserving the heritage of human civilization as much as possible and continuing human civilization."
This statement from the command headquarters is extremely rigorously worded. What it says is not "reducing losses" but "preserving heritage".
Obviously, the command clearly believes that once an impact occurs, the entire civilization may be destroyed. How can there be any talk of reducing losses? I'm lucky to be able to keep a few more things.
The pessimism is self-evident.
"The command believes that to achieve this, there is a prerequisite. The asteroid's forward trajectory must be monitored accurately, closely, and in real time. Only by collecting enough data can we confirm as soon as possible whether an impact will occur. If an impact occurs, , where is the impact point.
Only by confirming the impact point can the impact model be used to calculate the least affected place. Only there can we preserve the seeds of civilization as much as possible and ensure the continuation of civilization. "
At this moment, the asteroid is still more than 100 million kilometers away from the earth. There are still about five days left.
A distance of 100 million kilometers is not that far. People also have the precise orbit data of this asteroid in the past period.
But even so, it is still not 100% certain whether the final impact will occur.
Because during the next voyage, the orbit of this asteroid will still be affected by many aspects.
The gravitational influence of Jupiter, Saturn, Mars, the Earth, the Moon, the Sun, the mutual gravitational influence of these stars, the density of interstellar dust, the radiation power of the sun, etc., etc., there may be potentially countless factors that can cause this Influence.
Therefore, one can only calculate a probability of impact.
Only when the asteroid is close enough and the time from impact is short enough can it be finally confirmed whether there will be an impact. Just like only at this moment can we accurately predict the weather at the next moment.
The universe is chaotic in the long run, but can be quite precise in the short run.
"At this moment, all available observational forces have been focused on this asteroid codenamed 'Death'."
"At this moment, among the 6 million square kilometers of possible safe zones, according to current data, about 260,000 square kilometers have been excluded. The material reserve center in this area is temporarily sealed and will no longer be replenished."
The data currently known are limited. But these data alone are enough to rule out some areas that were originally considered safe.
"It is suspected that the orbit of Death Star has been slightly shifted due to the mass transfer caused by Jupiter's storm. Based on this, the probability of impact has been approved and judged to be 2%."
When the mass is transferred, the gravitational field will also fluctuate.
Another few hours passed.
"It is suspected that the orbit of the Death Star has shifted due to the influence of solar wind and light pressure radiation. Based on this, the probability of impact has been approved and determined to be 6.5%."
Previously, due to other factors, the probability had increased to 4%, but then fell back to about 2.6%, then once climbed to 8%, and now it has fallen back to 6.5%.
Just like a stock, it goes up and down. But everyone can clearly feel that from the overall trend, the probability is constantly rising.
This is not good news.
During this time, Lu Ming, Zhang Dingshan, He Wei, and Lu Qingliang were always in the video conference room. Even eating and sleeping are done at the conference table.
Lu Qingliang continued to broadcast news from the asteroid warning center and disaster prevention command center.
The atmosphere was so tense and heavy that it was almost visible to the naked eye.
At this moment, Ark Base.
Before finishing today's work, on the mobile phone issued by the base in Wang Long's hand, in the communication APP specially developed for the personnel in the Ark Base, a shocking news broke out in the group chat.
"Outside, the Asteroid Warning Center has confirmed the discovery of an asteroid approaching the Earth! The probability of impact has been determined to be 1%!"
"This asteroid is temporarily named Death Star. Its longest point is 3.1 kilometers and its total mass is about 56 billion tons. Once it hits the earth, it will release energy equivalent to 15 million Tsar bombs and destroy the world!"
The group chat, which was originally a little deserted due to working hours, suddenly became lively with a bang.
"Asteroid! It's really coming!"
"How could the prophecy of the Son of God be wrong!"
"Hahahaha! This day has finally come!"
"Long live the Son of God! Long live!"
"The end of the world is coming soon, I can't wait any longer!"
The group chat was abuzz. However, at this time, the temporary director of the base actually complied with public opinion and issued an announcement.
"From now on, except for essential positions, all other positions in the base will be temporarily closed for half a day. Now, everyone can concentrate on the asteroid impact."
"Long live! Long live!"
Wang Long roared excitedly.
After waiting for so many days, being anxious for so many days, now, everything is finally settled!
That’s right, the dust has settled!
The time predicted by the Son of God is 10:17 am on November 19th. In the outside world, scientists have initially calculated that the time is between 9:10am and 11:00am on November 19th. The asteroid will Reaching the closest point to the earth, the two times are only slightly different. How could it be such a coincidence?
If it’s not a coincidence, it can only be destiny. It can only prove that the prophecy of the Son of God is indeed correct!
Once the end is certain, the good days ahead are also certain. At that time, people like myself will be the masters of this earth.
He followed the excited people to the lounge. People sat together in twos and threes, each discussing this matter.
At this moment, the people's hearts in the Ark Base were condensed to the highest level.
He randomly found a place to sit, took out his mobile phone, connected to the Internet, and started browsing information.
So he saw that, except for some people who paid more attention to this news, not many people in the outside world cared about it.
Some netizens even believe that with a 1% probability of collision, doesn’t that mean a 99% probability of no collision? There is 99% no collision, so what are you worried about?
Some people also think that if the sky falls, tall people will be able to bear it, and they can just live a peaceful life as a small citizen.
At this moment, the headlines were still occupied by entertainment news that Wang Long would not even take a look at.
The outside world is still singing and dancing, and the world is peaceful and prosperous.
Wang Long put away his phone and a smile appeared on his face.
"Ignorant fools, soon you will see what the end of the world will look like. All of you will die, but I can live on and even become the master of the entire earth and the entire human civilization."
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