Chapter 617: Financial Market Response
And the Titan processor was only released a few years ago?
Under such an unstoppable ebb and flow trend, it is unknown whether Nvidia can retain half of its current active users in less than five years.
Column analysts of the "Wall Street Journal" believe that the sales of high-performance processor companies such as AMD, NVIDIA, and Intel will soften in 2022. Due to the mining disaster and changes in the supply and demand environment of the Daxia market, the overall sales will tend to normal. This will So some stocks will be affected.
The columnist said it very euphemistically, as if ordinary people saw thunder and lightning and violent storms coming a few kilometers away, and the weather forecast host on the TV in front of them was still saying that there would be showers in the local area.
Oil rats like the main institutions, which have long smelled the smell, have already started running away.
On August 9, the stock price of American Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) fluctuated and fell. As of the close, the stock fell 8.29% to US$109.34.
Barclays analysts downgraded the stock to "hold."
The analyst wrote: "AMD still has room to improve its share in the client market and server market this year. Although we see that there is still room for improvement in this year's 31% growth target, the problem is 1023, as we see several terminals Market cyclical risks.”
He pointed out that shipments of personal computer components have increased, but the computer market is no longer a playground for AMD, Intel, and Nvidia.
The entry of companies such as Pingguo, Jiuzhou Technology, and Xiawei will inevitably lead to great changes in the company's market share.
Barclays analysts also believe that Daxia’s entertainment products are eroding the Western entertainment market. As long as the production capacity of Titan processors and the limitations of Lingjing Ecology on products from companies such as Nvidia are solved, AMD’s customized chips for electronic game consoles in 1023 and 1024 Business will take a big hit. Although he believes that AMD is in a favorable position in the server market, he does not believe that the continued growth of this business will be enough to offset potential difficulties in other aspects, and there are also competing products such as the Rocky X1 server in China.
Coincidentally, Eric, an analyst at Morgan Stanley, an international financial services company in New York, issued a similar warning in a report.
He downgraded the ratings of Hewlett-Packard and Dell, the two largest PC manufacturers in the United States, and also recommended that clients reduce their positions in semiconductor companies.
The impact of this report is not insignificant. Due to market sentiment, as of the close of trading on August 9, HP fell 6.54% to US$36.3; Dell fell 7.6% to US$50.19.
Even so, it's not over yet.
Morgan Stanley analyst Eric also pointed out on August 10th: "European and American semiconductor companies are becoming increasingly cautious about the prospects of IT hardware for the rest of this year. The risk of hardware budget reductions is increasing, and hardware profit increases have peaked. , further multiple compressions are increasingly possible.”
Eric then lowered Dell's rating from "outperform" to "in line with the market" and lowered the target price from $66 to $59; at the same time, he lowered HP's rating from "in line with the market" to "underperform." "Broad Market," lowering its price target to $30 from $34.
Dell and Hewlett-Packard are naturally angry when they suffer such "slander".
Although the two of them do not have the hard power to develop and manufacture graphics cards and CPUs, they are still among the top two computer manufacturers in the world!
How come Nvidia and AMD are forced to bleed even though they are not doing their job well? !
Naturally, the two companies are not willing to cut their ties.
the next day.
Summer time, August 11th.
The three newspapers known as the "three major newspapers" in the United States are the New York Times, the Los Angeles Times, and the Washington Post, as well as the Chicago Daily News, the Christian Science Monitor, and the New York Herald Tribune. Columnists from newspapers and Bloomberg rushed out articles as if they had taken laxatives.
"The turning point of the graphics card market has arrived", "Winter has arrived for semiconductor companies", "NVIDIA's graphics card empire is about to collapse", "The Eastern Lion wakes up, who will become its first blood meal?" ”, “Economic War? Tech war! ", "Technology Transfer in the New Century", "Old Patterns Broken by Disruptors", "Technology: Breaking the Global Hegemony"...
The overwhelming media articles, expert interpretations, reporter surveys, and host readings not only made people in the financial sector and manufacturing industry collectively confused, but also left investment banking institutions scratching their heads and making phone calls.
During the U.S. stock market on Monday (August 15), Nvidia’s stock price fell sharply again, falling more than 8% to US$119 per share. Before the market opened, an investment bank downgraded Nvidia's rating from "outperform" to "neutral" and significantly lowered its target price, citing concerns about order cancellations.
And some senior analysts pointed out that some business users and consumers have begun to cancel orders from NVIDIA, AMD and other companies, and these companies may face the risk of "overstock" and technology version obsolescence.
Preliminary results from IDC's Worldwide Quarterly Personal Computing Equipment Tracking report on Monday afternoon showed that global shipments of traditional PCs, which include desktops, laptops and workstations, fell 5.1% in the first quarter and 6.2% in the second quarter. %, exceeding previous forecasts.
The graphics card is an important hardware part of the computer host. NVIDIA's flagship product, the graphics processing unit (GPU), is a chip on the graphics card.
According to relevant agencies, since the second quarter of 2021, the revenue of graphics card dealers has been "below seasonal revenue". This phenomenon has slowed down after Nvidia, AMD and other companies formed an alliance.
However, the shrinking market and the reduction in dealer revenue have not been stopped. Not only has the graphics card market price dropped by 30% month-on-month, but the price level has returned to the beginning of 2020. Even the supply chain has reduced its profit margin by 29% in order to provide warranty services.
I don't know which evil wind has blown up, and more than one investment bank and financial institution have changed their attitude towards the former leading companies in the semiconductor industry.
On Tuesday morning, investment bank Truist lowered its price targets for Nvidia, AMD and Intel. The bank even told investors very bluntly that it had found "conclusive evidence of order cuts."
The bank's senior analyst said: "Although the performance of the semiconductor industry has remained strong in the first decade, it will begin to turn around in the second half of this year and 2023."
In addition, Jiuzhou Technology's Titan processor "actually" was put on the surface in the reports of some institutions.
"According to the survey, the development trend of Daxia Jiuzhou Technology's processor business is 'very strong', and it is likely to see a peak in year-on-year revenue in the second half of 2022. In line with this, the development trend of Daxia's semiconductor business is also very strong'.
Nasdaq needs more potential companies to join. Jiuzhou Technology's global industrial layout is extremely poor, and it needs large amounts of funds to help the company develop."