Chapter 539, Behavioral Economics

Teresa's whim made all the knights in the tent focus on her. The sorceress held the violet staff, and she said seriously: "Is it possible that chaos and the undead have reached a fragile alliance?"

"There is a possibility." Ryan first affirmed Teresa's opinion, which made the sorceress a little happy, but the lake goddess Morgiana immediately retorted: "I don't intend to target you, Teresa Ms. Sha, but the undead are allied with Chaos? Is there any point in that?"

"What's the point?" Teresa took over the conversation naturally, and she glanced at Ryan's expression calmly.

There was a bit of curiosity and interest on Ryan's face, which greatly encouraged Teresa. The sorceress ignored the somewhat displeased eyes of a dozen Holy Grail knights and more than twenty noble knights in the tent, and directly Go on: "Of course it is because of the pressure. The huge pressure forced the undead and chaos to unite together."

After finishing speaking, Teresa stretched out a hand wrapped in white lace gloves and tapped on the map: "You see, the Spire Palace has fallen before, and according to the news, the army of Lawn in the north has also surrounded Richard. De Castle, if I were Mousillon's poisonous snake, then at this moment I must be able to realize that the undead are in a desperate situation."

"At this time, the undead had already lost a lot when attacking the Spire Palace, and also lost many blood knights and black holy grail knights, and the last Horror also died under Ryan's sword, so at this time, Mu Xilong's The Viper also gave up on recovering the Spire Palace and immediately went north to rescue Richard Castle. He will face great pressure in terms of strength. The chivalrous army, then when our army is assembled and attacked from both sides, the poisonous snake will definitely not be able to deal with it, and he can only retreat to Mu Xilong again." Teresa continued: "And if this is the case, we can do a long-term siege of Mu Xilong. Shiron's preparation, this time we are fully prepared."

"Therefore, out of desperation, Matthew Budd and Chaos reached an agreement and formed a coalition army. The Chaos Demon Army destroyed the Spire Palace and relieved the pressure on Musilon's south." This was Teresa's last general feeling. After the sorceress finished speaking, she looked at Ryan expectantly, waiting for his evaluation.

"Oh!" Who knew that before Ryan could speak, Morgiana sneered, the beautiful face of the Lake Goddess Witch was full of majesty and coldness, she said in a deep voice: "Ms. Teresa, yes, from logic Generally speaking, there is no problem with your judgment, but I want to ask you, if this is indeed the case, what can Chaos gain? What reason do they have to help the undead?"

"For destruction and killing?" Teresa tried her best to keep it elegant: "The undead must have reached an agreement with Chaos..."

"No, it's unlikely." Ryan interrupted Teresa, and at the same time motioned for Morgiana to listen to him: "The purpose of the undead is to rule, whether it is Matthew Bard or Arkhan, the Lich King, their The goal is to establish a kingdom of the dead, in this land that the goddess gave us, and for Chaos, all they want is..."

"...Destruction, complete destruction." Morgiana stared at Teresa: "What the undead want is conquest and rule, while what Chaos wants is destruction. It is impossible for the two sides to reach an agreement, unless it is an extreme situation, but the current situation For Mousilon's poisonous snake, it is far from reaching that level. There used to be dark elf pirates and northern barbarians who could form an alliance against the Empire and the Britannian coalition forces when they went south to plunder, but the opponent was the Chaos Demon Army."

The Chaos Demon Army is a subspace creature. Even with the full support of the evil gods, it is impossible for the Chaos Demon Army to stay in the mortal world for a long time before the great guardian and the maelstrom fail.

"Well...the information we currently have is still too little." Ryan shook his head in distress. He signaled Morgiana and Teresa not to get entangled in this matter. The Earl said loudly: "We are temporarily Resting in the camp, I have written to François and Mr. Bohemond to ask for support,

When their army arrives, we will make another plan. Please keep in mind that the fighting power of the Chaos Demon Army is unmatched by any army in the world, and you must not take the initiative to attack because of your enthusiasm! "

Everyone knows the strength of the Chaos Demon Army. Without gathering a real army, it is impossible to defeat the Tzeentch Demon Army led by Carlos, the number one demon destiny weaver under Tzeentch.

"Yes!" The meeting was dismissed. Due to the unfavorable battle, the knights were a little downcast. They slowly left the big tent and went back to their tents to rest.

"Fedmond, Gerald, stay here." Ryan signaled Fedmond and Gerald to stay.

Soon there were five people left in the big tent, Ryan, Teresa, Morgana, Fedmond, and Jerrod sat around the table and looked at the map.

It seemed to be raining lightly outside the tent, and the night in early spring was very cold. Even though there was a brazier inside the tent, the cold wind was still blowing.

The five people in the tent were not afraid of the cold. After sitting down, Ryan arranged for everyone to have dinner together. Today's dinner is grilled steak and lamb chops, stewed broccoli and corn soup. The staple food is good butter bread, served with The wine is a low alcohol sweet sparkling cider.

Affected by the defeat, several people were a little silent. Morgiana and Teresa didn't eat much meat, but just ate some vegetables and thick soup to deal with it. Ryan, Fedmond, and Gerald didn't care so much , eat and drink.

Historically, the fact that the Cavaliers can eat is a sign of being able to play.

Ryan didn't speak until he was almost done eating: "Actually, I agree with Teresa's point of view."

The female sorceress' expression suddenly lit up, she put down the spoon, her face was a little excited and complaining: "Then why didn't you..."

"Ms. Teresa." Gerald reached out his hand to signal the sorceress to be calm, and the paladin whispered, "Because it was not the right time, and the morale of the army has been reduced by this defeat... If Ryan It is certain that the undead have united with Chaos..."

"It will deal a huge blow to the morale of the army." Fedmond added, the Holy Grail knight also frowned: "We who have participated in the Holy Grail expedition all know the power of the Chaos Demon, unless it is Bohemon Lord De, Lord Francois, or Lord Ryan, the Holy Grail Grand Knight, no one can deal with the Chaos Demon, not even ordinary Holy Grail Knights."

The female sorceress looked sullen, and she lowered her head unwillingly.

"It's not your fault, Teresa." Ryan stretched out his hand and patted the sorceress's hand, signaling her not to mind: "You are my courtier, all you have to do is to express your ideas, and I'm the one who has to think about the implications of that."

"I still have doubts about the union between the undead and Chaos." Morgiana shook her head, and the Lake God Witch said to Ryan: "Lion, why do you also think that Matthew Bard will form an alliance with Chaos?"

"The reason is simple." Ryan nodded, and he smiled: "In short, this is called behavioral economics."

"Behavioral economics?" The Lake God Witch signaled Ryan to continue.

"For example." Ryan nodded, and he took out ten gold crowns and placed them on the table.

"Suppose, I am an imperial businessman, and I want to transport a batch of grain to Courona for sale."

"Now I have two options. First, I can take the ax pass of Montfort. Since I have a strong escort, I can almost guarantee safety by taking the ax pass. But because of the high tariffs, I can go This time only one thousand crowns will be earned."

"Alternatively, I can choose to take the path of the gray lady in Palavon. This path is quite dangerous. I only have a 50% chance of passing it safely, but if I pass successfully, I only need to pay a low tariff, so I can earn three thousand gold Crowns or even four thousand gold crowns."

"In this case, how would you choose?"

As soon as Ryan finished speaking, Gerald and Fedmond said without hesitation: "Of course it is a safe and safe choice to choose to take the ax and bite the pass."

Teresa also agreed to take the ax to bite the pass, but Morgiana said disdainfully: "If it were me, I would take the way of the gray lady. I don't believe that any enemy can hurt me."

"Mogiana, you are willing to go to the Gray Lady Mountain because you have great strength." Ryan shook his head with a wry smile: "And let you go with me, let alone two thousand gold crowns, it would be good for the merchants to earn five hundred gold crowns. "

"So what exactly are you trying to say?" Morgiana's golden eyebrows frowned.

"Listen to me first." Ryan shook his head, and he continued: "Now let's assume that if we took the path of the gray lady, and ended up encountering the Greenskin tribe, half of the food was robbed, and now we are faced with two choice."

"First of all, we can choose to go back the same way immediately. Obviously, half of the goods we lost in this way will definitely not come back, but at least half of the goods and people survived."

"Alternatively, we can take people to the depths of the mountains to hunt down the greenskin tribe. Suppose we have a 50% chance of recovering our goods, and a 50% chance that not only will we not be able to recover the goods, but we still have to keep the remaining half of the goods. Even taking your life together, in this case, how would you choose?"

At this moment, both Fedmond and Jerrod realized something. Fedmond pondered for a while, and said to me: "I think I will still choose to go after the Greenskin tribe."

"Me too." Jerrod and Morgiana both believed that the goods must be recovered, and only the sorceress chose to give up at this time: "My life is the most important, and I will not risk my life again."

"Very good." Ryan smiled. He collected ten gold crowns and said with a smile, "This is called behavioral economics."

"A mortal man has a nature that prevents him from being completely sane when dealing with gains and losses."

"When faced with returns, mortals are risk-averse, and they prefer guaranteed returns. Even if the returns are lower, mortals can accept them."

Strange and strange novels|w~w~w.

"When faced with losses, mortals always prefer to take risks. At this time, they will in turn hate the losses that have been determined, but hope to recover their losses by taking risks, even if they may suffer even more. If we think about it for a while, we will know that it is unlikely that we will really go after the Greenskin tribe to regain the goods, but many people will still choose this way.”

"Because mortals are more sensitive to losses than gains." Ryan crossed his hands, pressed the back of his hands on his nose, and supported his elbows on the table: "When there is a choice, most mortals hope to take risks." The risk is to 'make money'."

"Of course, there will be a small number of people who choose to stop losses. I am talking about most people here, not everyone."

After hearing this, everyone was thoughtful.

This problem is actually very similar to a problem that Ryan often faced in his previous life, that is, the choice of "100% get one million and 50% get five million, and 50% get nothing", even if everyone knows the second choice The expected return is greater than the first choice, and most people will still choose the first one, because they will get one million for sure.

But if you want to change it to "100% loss of one million and 50% loss of five million, 50% no loss", most people will choose the second one. They know that they expect to lose more by choosing the second one, but they still like it. Choose the second one, because if you win the game, there is no loss?

It should be emphasized here that Ryan is referring to most people, not everyone, except those who are smart and sane enough.

"You mean, Matthew Bard will choose to compromise with Chaos because he also wants to make money, and the loss of the Spire Palace is a confirmed loss?" Mogiana reluctantly accepted Ryan's opinion, and the Lake God Witch said He nodded understandingly: "Compromise with Chaos, or the Spire Palace can be regained, or the situation is worse, but he is willing to take the risk【】."

"That's right." Ryan nodded: "Moreover, the benefit is not only to recover the Spire Palace, the Chaos Demon Army can resist our offensive, so that Matthew Bard can concentrate on dealing with Lawn and his army, that is to say Whether the Strange Demon Army is successful or not, at least they all helped Matthew Bard fight us, which is a stable income."

"So, to sum it up, it's not surprising that the undead will compromise with Chaos in a difficult situation." After Ryan concluded: "So this problem is half solved, and I can be sure that the undead will compromise with Chaos."

After Ryan's analysis, the remaining four people in the tent were convinced. Jerrod and Fedmond nodded in agreement, and even Morgana, who had a firm attitude towards this, was shaken: "If you say it according to Ryan, It is indeed possible that the undead have compromised."

"Then the question is, the undead can compromise with Chaos, why would Chaos be willing to lend a helping hand to the undead?" Teresa was very happy to see that her point of view was recognized by Ryan, and the sorceress ignored Morgiana's warning eyes , Immediately continued: "First of all, we can be sure that chaos is not here to destroy, so there is only one possibility left."

"Chaos is looking for something."

"What is Tzeentch looking for?"

After listening to Ryan's words, everyone fell into deep thought.

At this moment, a few bats suddenly flew into the tent from outside the tent, and a vampire lord suddenly appeared in the tent, button! He has a big bald head, sunken eye sockets, and a pale face without a trace of blood: "It's looking for a holy object!"

"Who?" Everyone present immediately drew their weapons and pointed at the vampire lord.

Who knew that the vampire lord sneered, he threw his weapon on the ground, then knelt down on both knees, raised his hands, and expressed his surrender: "Dear Sir Ryan Macado, I am the Baron Vampire, Hal Harry Si, from the von Carstein family, I come here and surrender to you, I hope you can forgive my sins!"

"The tree world is coming!!" Morgiana's beautiful green eyes were full of hatred, the lake goddess raised her head, and the thick branches immediately bound the vampire baron tightly: "Undead! What conspiracy do you have?! "

Hal Harris allowed himself to be sealed, and the vampire baron stared at Ryan with dark eyes: "I said, I came to surrender, and for some compelling reason, I can only surrender to you, Ryan Malcador , I have no choice."

"You know I never forgive vampires." Ryan stood up: "Why do you think I will accept your surrender?"

"Yes, I know." Hal Harris still kept kneeling: "But I have no choice."

After finishing speaking, the vampire of the von Carstein family raised his head: "Because I discovered an amazing secret! The great blood ancestor Vlad von Carstein! Damn it! De, he gave up the glory of midnight nobles and surrendered to Chaos!"

"He is no longer worthy to be our leader!"

"Only you can defeat him! Ryan Malcador!"

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