Chapter 2680: Expectations Are Doomed to Be in Vain

There are indeed people waiting to see Feng Yiping's joke.

Not only in China, but also abroad.

Among the people waiting to see him laugh at his joke in China, many have read Feng Yiping's report.

In various fields of a country, such as diplomacy, military, and trade, there are some relatively authoritative circles, both in China and abroad.

These circles, composed of institutions whose names are not well known to ordinary people, are actually not simple at all in their respective fields of expertise. Many of their opinions can have an impact on relevant policies.

But since it is a circle, then xenophobia is its inevitable attribute.

Some of the remarks in Feng Yiping's report immediately made him a barbarian in the eyes of some people.

You have done well in business, and we admit this.

You have indeed made certain achievements in academia, and we also admit this.

But you are now predicting a regional conflict?

Sorry, we cannot agree with this.

This is our professional field. We understand the relevant situation better than you and are more familiar with the corresponding transformation.

In the current environment, the United States provokes a country to conflict with Russia?

Haha, it doesn't exist!

Because even if I am not as good as you in the economic field, I know that the regional conflict you predicted will not last long, firstly, cannot effectively divert the political contradictions in the United States, but may bring more challenges to the current US government.

Second, the regional conflict that will not last too long will not play a role in boosting the US economy.

The current situation of the US economy cannot be solved by those military-industrial enterprises taking a few additional small orders.

Yes, Georgia has been flirting with NATO. Since the second quarter, the friction between Georgia and Russia has tended to escalate, for example, both sides shot down each other's drones.

But please, will Georgia challenge Russia with real swords and guns?

How much vodka must have been drunk to make such a stupid decision?

But apart from that, it seems that there is no other place where conflicts may occur.

Because the Middle East has always been a powder keg, and now there are so many US troops. Although the war is still going on, it can't be considered a new conflict.

... So, hehe, I can finally see Feng Yiping's good show!

I believe that with such a lesson, Mr. Feng, you will no longer be interested in being a cross-border barbarian in the future.

…………

Abroad, people who are waiting to see Feng Yiping's performance are mainly concentrated on Wall Street.

Wall Street in early July was generally shrouded in a relaxed mood.

Many people who were nervous because of the Bear Stearns incident in the first quarter have now greatly relaxed after spending the second quarter with some trepidation.

Because the second quarter was unexpectedly smooth and there were no waves.

The Federal Reserve, which directly began to act as the "nanny" of Wall Street, has begun to show the effect of various measures taken to increase liquidity, and the capital market that was frozen at the beginning of the year has gradually shown signs of thawing.

The issuance volume of some bonds, such as municipal bonds, has increased significantly, and the financing and blood-making function of the capital market is beginning to recover.

More importantly, the action to save Bear Stearns demonstrated the "firm determination" of the Federal Reserve to save the market, which has very effectively restored investors' confidence to a considerable extent.

When institutions have no money to invest or dare not invest, some people with investment needs begin to withdraw their funds invested in areas such as treasury bonds and invest in municipal bonds, corporate bonds and stocks that have become very cheap due to the crisis.

To a certain extent, they replaced those institutions that previously raised funds and invested everywhere, injecting more funds and vitality into the market.

In general, the situation is at least a little better, both internationally and domestically.

Internationally, the prices of raw materials and primary products such as oil and agricultural products are rising, while in the United States, the financial market has rebounded to a considerable extent.

The decoupling theory is circulating everywhere. They believe that the strong growth of China and other BRICS countries will soon drive developed countries out of the trough, and subprime loans will soon disappear.

At this time, many people on Wall Street feel that after a period of adjustment, the music has returned to normal, and of course they will continue to dance.

At this time, in their eyes, people like Feng Yiping who still insist that the most difficult days have not yet come will naturally become a joke.

However, for some senior executives on Wall Street, this summer is particularly anxious.

Those who remain optimistic at this time are mostly ordinary employees on Wall Street. As long as they can keep their jobs and get commissions, then they think everything is fine.

But for bigwigs like Su Shiyi, the most important thing is how to prevent their company from becoming the next Bear Stearns and being sold at a shameful price like Bear Stearns.

When Goldman Sachs's Lloyd was a little panicked, Su Shiyi couldn't stay calm at this time.

The reason why they were not calm can actually be seen from one indicator.

Although after Bear Stearns, in the second quarter, the financial market did show some signs of improvement, but at the same time, the most important indicator of the US economy, the unemployment rate, began to rise significantly.

For these old Wall Street veterans who have experienced wind and rain, this only means one thing, the delayed effect of the financial crisis has finally fermented in the real economy, and the real economy is beginning to decline.

This means that a more serious crisis is brewing.

The US economy is simple to say. It is mainly driven by consumption, which accounts for 70% of the US GDP.

Although real estate-related investment only accounts for about 5% of GDP, it seems quite insignificant, but it can have a significant impact on the economy.

This is a truth that many people understand, because real estate has a considerable impact on materials, decoration, durable consumer goods, etc., and it can be said that it plays a role in affecting the whole body.

The unemployment rate and housing prices are the key factors that determine consumption and real estate investment.

Simply put, unemployment rate, consumption, housing prices and real estate investment are a relationship of prosperity and decline.

Before the subprime mortgage crisis, low-cost mortgages led to rising housing prices, which in turn led to real estate investment, reduced unemployment, promoted consumption, and the prosperous economy further increased real estate demand... forming a virtuous circle.

After the subprime mortgage crisis, housing prices fell, leading to an increase in mortgage defaults, making mortgage applications difficult, and causing housing prices to fall further, forming a small vicious circle between the financial market and the real estate market.

Now, the crisis has already affected the real economy, and the vicious cycle of unemployment, consumption, housing prices and real estate investment has begun.

So Feng Yiping's judgment is undoubtedly correct, and the most difficult time is indeed still to come.

Su Shiyi did not fail to anticipate this. In fact, he listed his company last year out of concern in this regard.

Otherwise, why would he take out a part of his company's shares, that is, make money with some people?

But he did not expect that the situation would be so bad.

Last year, his Blackstone not only acquired the heavy asset Hilton, but also made another acquisition of a larger amount.

And unfortunately, that acquisition was also related to real estate.

In February last year, at the peak of the real estate bubble, they acquired EOP, the largest real estate company in the United States, for a record $39 billion, and officially entered the commercial real estate market.

Although he was very alert and quickly disposed of some assets under EOP in a few months, recovering more than 70% of the investment, many of the remaining properties have now become real negative assets.

Add to that their losses on mortgage securities, and the Hilton that they spent more than 20 billion dollars to acquire...

Now, when Su Shiming saw the total book assets and the company's net worth that was getting smaller and smaller due to the continuous deduction of various losses, he felt distressed at first and then had a headache.

And in late June, the rapid bankruptcy and government takeover of Indy Bank made him terrified.

At this time, Su Shiming thought of Feng Yiping again.

…………

Feng Yiping had already arrived in Silicon Valley. Before going to Mantingfang, he went to the NEXTDOOR Park first, and then hurried to Google in the name of meeting with Page and others.

Because he had called in advance, he saw Mayer's old BMW in a parking lot on the side of the road.

"Hi," he got in a little excitedly and saw that Mayer was wearing a long corset skirt. "I say, at this moment, can you not think about showing off your figure?"

The next moment, Mayer leaned over and opened the door on his side, "Get out!"

Feng Yiping: "Why am I suddenly not welcomed everywhere?"